It's pretty clear, the US only carries out war on weekends, while markets sleep.
Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#12Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#13Wasn't there a flurry of market activity moments before Trump announced discussions between Iran and the USA, but such discussions never happened, or as Trump said, happened with someone he didn't want to name to protect them, which meant they were clearly not a decision maker in Iran - all of which was denied by Iran.
What if everything Trump does and says is merely to manipulate markets?
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#14Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.
No, but I'm just saying, people vote based on feels.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#15> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31)
Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel has demonstrated over US foreign policy I find it hard to imagine that the US will 'leave them to it'. Likewise, Iran is unlikely to leave Hezbollah's interests out of any negotiations or for that matter to trust that the US isn't asking for negotiations in bad faith. I guess there could be a limited ceasefire agreed between Iran and the US to make room for negotiations but the ceasefire would almost certainly have to occur without the opening of the strait or an end to fighting in Lebanon. This (now regional) war has a long way to go in my opinion.
Ultimately, I think this all hinges on whether or not the Iranians feel that they have enough leverage to exercise yet. My feeling is that they will want to continue to the point of destroying Trump's political career - something they could possibly do if this quagmire continues to get worse and closer to the US midterms. Bringing down a US president is potentially one way they can help ensure that they don't simply get attacked again in the near future.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#16Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
There's an entire academic field called statistics you seem to be forgetting all about.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#17If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.
No, but I'm just saying, people vote based on feels.
Insiders don‘t and you’re ignoring the reasons why insider trading is suspected.
It’s not because they bet, because how and when they bet
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#19Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
A few major actors in predictions markets (1) Recreational or addicted gamblers (2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance (3) Insiders (4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc) Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.
Can anyone point to any instance of anyone benefitting from the information conveyed in these prediction markets?
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#20Couldn't insiders just trade Brent Crude futures and do the same thing? There's more than enough liquidity in Brent that an insider can make great money.