131–140 of 320 posts
What contracts did you trade? Looks like you did futures contracts? Did you look into forex at all, or was this strictly equites.
The charts show he was trading between Jun 2009 and Oct 2010. How much of his gains could be attributed to the market recovery in general? The Dow went from about 7000 to 11000, the Russell from about 600 to 800.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, in the article he said tat he did not care about direction, he would simple buy when his expected price was up, and sell when down. However, there could have easily been a bias in his model that "preferred" and performed better during upward movements. If so, he got lucky.
Longs and shorts were 50/50 and my program showed no preference for up or down days. High volatility and high volume was what it liked.
This is just glorified gambling. I am not sure what special insight or advantage he had, other than his own model. Every trader has a model. It could have easily been called "how i lost 500k with machine learning". Like gambling, it's easy to manipulate statistics to show that you did well in some period of time. I worked for a large investment bank about 10 years ago, writing trading programs for quant traders who w…
It could have easily been called "how i lost 500k with machine learning". If you've really worked in that field than it's very surprising you've never heard about what professional poker players call bankroll management (and they "stole" the concept from professional traders). The whole point is that you can --either if you gain an edge or get lucky-- win big. Very big. But you're never exposing a large part of your…
With my program I didn't really have bad streaks because my P&L was averaged out over thousands of trades per day.
I've been considering trying HFT myself for a while. I'm competent with Machine Learning and am a Software Developer by day, so I can program and can sysadmin well enough to get something up and running without any trouble at all. But, every time I've tried to actually get started, I've always found the amount of research required before being able to begin is just staggering. It seems like the logical course of sing…
This is just glorified gambling. I am not sure what special insight or advantage he had, other than his own model. Every trader has a model. It could have easily been called "how i lost 500k with machine learning". Like gambling, it's easy to manipulate statistics to show that you did well in some period of time. I worked for a large investment bank about 10 years ago, writing trading programs for quant traders who w…
This is just glorified gambling. I am not sure what special insight or advantage he had, other than his own model. Every trader has a model. It could have easily been called "how i lost 500k with machine learning". Like gambling, it's easy to manipulate statistics to show that you did well in some period of time. I worked for a large investment bank about 10 years ago, writing trading programs for quant traders who w…
I tried to address this concern at the start of my post. If you have some idea of how I manipulated the statistics I'd be happy to respond. Having said that I can agree that my case is pretty unusual and that everyone should beware of attempting to do something like this. Even for myself I couldn't do it now. (There is a reason I turned my program off.)
How much did you spend before you "tuned" it? How much did you spend afterwards? What were the tax consequences of your trades? Did you make exactly 500k? Have you traded at all since then?
You mentioned that you occasionally "sat in" and took some large losing positions. Were these on purpose? Bugs? Was your exposure actually much higher than you thought? Was limiting contract size enough risk management?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't get that. It would be true if he just made a few trades, but the author claimed to be making 2000 trades a day. Over a period of months winning that wouldn't qualify as blind luck.
>Over a period of months winning that wouldn't qualify as blind luck. Why not?