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Waymo Safety Impact

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Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#381

Post by gnopgnip »

rafaelmn wrote: post #154
bryanlarsen wrote: post #88

13X is way more impressive than it seems at first glance. Let's take a simplistic model of accidents: that the average driver is at fault in an accident 50% of the time. So a perfect driver would only halve the number of accidents -- they only eliminate the accidents where they would otherwise have been at fault. But Waymo's numbers are better than the "perfect" driver above. How is that possible? Because in most acc…

13x compared to what ? The average driver is such a bullshit statistic - accidents are highly correlated with stuff like alcohol/drugs/lack of sleep/lack of experience/physical issues, then the other huge behavioral factor distraction and driving style, and on top of that car performance matters a lot too. I don't see any attempt to correct for that in their "human benchmark". Heck the least they could have done is c…

This perspective makes the statistic even more impressive. Every day driving they interact with probably thousands of people who are impaired in some way and manage to drive safely far more often

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#382

Post by rafaelmn »

gnopgnip wrote: post #381
rafaelmn wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

13x compared to what ? The average driver is such a bullshit statistic - accidents are highly correlated with stuff like alcohol/drugs/lack of sleep/lack of experience/physical issues, then the other huge behavioral factor distraction and driving style, and on top of that car performance matters a lot too. I don't see any attempt to correct for that in their "human benchmark". Heck the least they could have done is c…

This perspective makes the statistic even more impressive. Every day driving they interact with probably thousands of people who are impaired in some way and manage to drive safely far more often

No not really - because it doesn't compare to other comparable drivers. You're assuming that human drivers can't drive defensively.

Like a realistic comparison would be comparing it to taxi drivers/ride share drivers - then you'd see the risk vs using a cab/uber/whatever. Not a drunk 18 year old with a clunker with no brakes.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#383

Post by array_key_first »

haspok wrote: post #332
socalgal2 wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo supporting music services at all is stupid to me. They should just let you bluetooth your phone and play your own music. I don't want any of those services. I want my own music.

Why do you even want music? There is a large group of people (maybe even the majority?) who, as soon as they get in a car, MUST immediately turn on the radio or some kind of extra noise source. Is this some kind of a Pavlovian reflex? I'm always amazed by this, as my car is one of the few places where I have actual control over my environment (unlike on public transport, or at my workplace, or even in my home - neigh…

If I don't have my music then I have to listen to my own thoughts, and nobody wants that.

In seriousness, music is one of the small joys of life. Like a morning coffee or the smell of winter. It makes living a little bit more bearable.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#384

Post by Schiendelman »

weusedto wrote: post #74

Anecdote from 1000s of miles biking: I bike a lot in the Bay, for fun, exercise, commute, all of the above (I'm a friendly one, I promise!) and the comfort I feel when I see a Waymo alongside me or at a stop sign is immediately apparent. I have been hit 5-10x riding in NYC and SF (nothing serious, gratefully, mostly just people turning right not knowing/caring I was there), and the Waymo's awareness that I exist is i…

I stopped biking on Seattle streets after being hit a third time - in a bike lane. I want human drivers off the roads.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#385

Post by Schiendelman »

srini wrote: post #305
themafia wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can avoid a lot of accidents More than 1/2 of roadway fatalities involve alcohol or drugs. An oversized fraction of fatalities are represented by young men under 24. 1/6 of all fatalities are motorcycles. 1/6 of all fatalities are pedestrians being struck by a vehicle.

Do you have a solution for preventing humans from driving while under the influence of alcohol or drugs? Or even preventing humans from driving while texting?

The insurance industry will solve that on their own as technology advances. It simply won't be worth insuring a human that uses alcohol/drugs.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#386

Post by Schiendelman »

kstrauser wrote: post #17
mkw5053 wrote: post #2

Living in SF (and dad of a toddler), this seems like a no-brainer. I can't wait for fewer human drivers.

I've said before that Waymo is already vastly, incredibly safer than some of my older relatives who refuse to give up their keys. Ever been around The Villages in Florida and seen a man leaning forward behind the wheel to squint at what they're driving toward, with their wife shouting at them to turn left!, turn left!? That's just kind of tolerated in some places where the cops don't want to make waves with the wealt…

People won't collectively realize squat.

Insurance companies will simply price people out of driving. And I welcome it SO very much.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#387

Post by sublinear »

0x3f wrote: post #347
sublinear wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. "Weird" people are somewhat rare opportunity to build certain social skills. I enjoy the challenge of finding creative ways to guide the discussion and understand their headspace for a little while. I am not even trying to control the level of weirdness, but just keep them talking and comfortable. Unfortunately, most of the time they're not even weird people and it was just a weird first impression. They vent fo…

I mean, I do talk to them and I do have this skill, but it's a skill that I only ever seem to employ in talking to Uber drivers, so I'm not sure it's of any great benefit. If anything the fact that most of them are immigrants puts the conversation on easy mode if you're a native speaker. They're doing twice the mental work you are so it's easy to orchestrate the conversation. Not really transferrable to native-speaki…

That's interesting. Cultural differences and language barriers aren't what I would consider weird.

I was thinking of those people who have wild stories and/or mountains of narcissism to overcome. They have a fascinating worldview like an artist would if they had those ambitions.

They get bonus points in my book the more genuinely unhinged and confused they seem to be. They got that way by questioning things into absurdity and I don't mind listening.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#388

Post by Mawr »

wffurr wrote: post #21
bogardon wrote: post #4

I'd love to cycle more outdoors, but I'm always wary of the risks. How cool would it be if you could hire a waymo as a "team car" and have it follow you around? It could also carry extra equipment...and act as a ride home in case of emergencies.

If you ride conservatively (use lights at night, use good judgement at intersections) and stay away from buses and trucks, the exercise vastly outweighs any risk.

This is very dependent on the environment. I would not be so confident saying this about the USA in particular.

If you can stick to at least half-decent dedicated cycling infrastructure separated from cars, sure. If riding alongside traffic, I wouldn't be surprised that, depending on the exact route, the gains wouldn't outweigh the risks.

Generally speaking, operating a bike safely is considerably more difficult than a car and the margins of error are tiny.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#389

Post by necovek »

srini wrote: post #308
necovek wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to confirm the point that you adapt your behavior in presence of Waymos, even if you believe it is in the other direction.

The argument was for _how_ people react to Waymos. The OP said folks are more careful. The respondent said, no it's the opposite. Neither argued that people do not adapt their behavior in the presence of Waymos?

The poster who claimed they are super careful also followed that with:

  So the Waymo safety record is actually not their own achievement.
The fact that someone adapts their behaviour (regardless in what direction) still supports that claim.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#390

Post by necovek »

0x3f wrote: post #351
necovek wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At highway speeds, engine, road and wind noise usually make horns inaudible. In Serbia, on top of get-out-of-my-way, it's also used to signal go-ahead, but also "police with speed radars ahead" to incoming traffic.

I think we're not interpreting the original comment in the same way. In most places, I think, when driving on the highway, flashing your lights when behind someone means basically 'I would like to overtake you'. Same here in the UK. But that's very specific to that context. You would never see a 'go ahead' context that would mean 'get out of my way', right? But what the original comment means is there are some countr…

You are right that I did not read it the same way, and yes, the unwritten rules are matching in Serbia. FWIW, I've mostly switched to using left-turn signal to indicate "I'd like to overtake", which I've seen done on EU highways.
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