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Waymo Safety Impact

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Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#371

Post by mmmlinux »

lemoncucumber wrote: post #27
sonofhans wrote: post #13

“Safer” == “Safer than all other human drivers in the same city.” By their own admission, this is not a straightforward comparison. If they could do the math for the same routes, times of day, and conditions … maybe I’d believe it. Otherwise, this data is trivial to cherrypick, and they have every reason to present it as well as possible. I believe Waymos are pretty safe, and that’s a great thing. “Safer than humans…

I've heard that Waymo relies on having very accurate map data for the areas where they operate, so perhaps they could perform worse than human drivers in areas where they don't have good map data. But I also trust that the company wouldn't deploy them in those areas until the quality data they need is available. So perhaps "safer in the environments where they are actually deployed" would be more accurate, but that's…

I, and I expect most human drivers, also probably drive measurably worse if I'm in a city I'm not familiar with.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#372

Post by rootusrootus »

Toutouxc wrote: post #319
rootusrootus wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a lot of freeway speed limits that are holdovers from the last oil crisis decades ago. Cars have gotten quieter, smoother, more capable, to the point where 55 mph is kind of hilariously slow. When the legal speed limit does not reflect what most drivers think is reasonable, then we can stamp our feet and insist that the law must be right, or we could redesign the road or adjust the speed limit to more closely…

Where do you guys have 55 mph where it's not appropriate? A LLM is telling me that 55 mph is your random urban interstate. The equivalent where I live is 80 km/h on motorways inside city/town limits, which is 50 mph, and it feels very appropriate, cars make a ton of noise and you don't want the full motorway speed in the city. And that's basically the fastest you'll ever go in a city, when it's an actual motorway (of…

> A LLM is telling me that 55 mph is your random urban interstate.

Yes, this sounds about right. In the metro area, 55 mph on a limited access interstate freeway. Arterial surface streets typically 40-45 mph, lower level surface streets commonly 25 mph and sometimes 20 mph depending on locality.

In the US, in particular out west where I live, 'urban' does not have the same meaning as it does somewhere much more dense, so it amounts to 55 mph in many places you might regard as rural.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#373

Post by vel0city »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #330
FL410 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it's customary to leave a path in the left 'passing lane' for any traffic that wants/needs to go faster than you It's not just customary in many (most?) states, it's the law. People who sit in the left lane are the problem.

Can you cite a specific state law that says that? The last couple laws like that I checked only talked about limiting flow below the speed limit.

I only know the law in Texas, so I'll cite that.

> (b) An operator of a vehicle on a roadway moving more slowly than the normal speed of other vehicles at the time and place under the existing conditions shall drive in the right-hand lane available for vehicles, or as close as practicable to the right-hand curb or edge of the roadway, unless the operator is:

> (1) passing another vehicle; or

> (2) preparing for a left turn at an intersection or into a private road or driveway.

https://tcss.legis.texas.gov/resources/TN/pdf/TN.545.pdf#545

Note this law specifically mentions "normal speed of other vehicles at the time and place" and doesn't directly mention speed limits. So by the text of this law, if you're driving the speed limit and hanging out in the left lane while the normal speed at that time is like 10 over you're technically breaking this law.

We have specific signage for highways where this is supposed to be the law.

https://www.txdot.gov/manuals/trf/smk/regulatory_signs/left_...

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#374

Post by rootusrootus »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #331
rootusrootus wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If cars match speeds across lanes, it impedes faster traffic. I think this undersells it a little. It does not just impede faster traffic, when the lanes are pacing each other it makes navigating harder -- simply switching lanes is more difficult. The highway moves so much more efficiently with a small but steady difference in speed between each lane.

That doesn't make sense to me. If you want to change lanes, and worst case scenario you're right next to someone, go 2mph slower for 20 seconds and they'll be shifted by 60 feet. I'm sure you can plan your lane changes on a freeway 20 seconds in advance.

It is the dynamics. When lanes are pacing each other the gaps all tighten up. So sure, you can slow down a bit to find the gap behind you, except that gap is not big enough to fit in. So you turn on your signal and wait for someone polite enough to let you in, meanwhile the guy behind you is riding you like a pony because you are no longer keeping up with traffic.

When traffic isn't balled up so tight, you can plan for a lane change in advance and accomplish it without having to slow down traffic. Everything flows better.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#375

Post by rootusrootus »

saalweachter wrote: post #276
rootusrootus wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If cars match speeds across lanes, it impedes faster traffic. I think this undersells it a little. It does not just impede faster traffic, when the lanes are pacing each other it makes navigating harder -- simply switching lanes is more difficult. The highway moves so much more efficiently with a small but steady difference in speed between each lane.

> Results: A 5-mph increase in the maximum state speed limit was associated with an 8.5% increase in fatality rates on interstates/freeways and a 2.8% increase on other roads. In total during the 25-year study period, there were an estimated 36,760 more traffic fatalities than would have been expected if maximum speed limits had not increased—13,638 on interstates/freeways and 23,122 on other roads. https://www.iihs.…

I do not understand the point you are making here. I did not make an argument in favor of increasing the speed limit.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#376

Post by vel0city »

amarant wrote: post #89
vel0city wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't the better solution be to prevent those murder monkeys from doing the death races around where people would want to cycle? Some kind of grade-separated trail? More regulations on those murder monkey death races? Crazy thought, I know.

The grade separated trail sounds great in theory, but in practice it's surprisingly ineffective for some unknown reason. In Sweden we have a ton of those and for some reason bikers insist on participating in the death race with the other murder monkeys. Which is annoying because it can really slow the race down! But I guess once they have a good alternative, at least their death race participation is voluntary, and s…

Sorry, yes, I didn't necessarily mean full grade separation, I was mostly thinking about just separated bike lanes in general. Having some kind of real buffer between the cyclists and the murder monkeys.

https://www.txdot.gov/manuals/des/rdw/chapter-18-bicycle-fac...

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#377

Post by bloppe »

qwerty_clicks wrote: post #273
bloppe wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody will. In fact, most car fatalities that are caused by humans involve zero criminal charges for anybody involved. In America, everybody from the courts to the media to society at large is primed to think of car accidents as normal. If you want to murder somebody in the middle of town in broad daylight, you can actually get away with it, as long as you do it with your car. At least with Waymo, it's much less fre…

Crashes are not accidents. Language matters. People should go to jail for harming others

Well with an autonomous system, you can actually audit what the machine was "thinking" and how it came to think that way, so you actually can distinguish between an accident and criminal negligence better than a he-said-she-said situation with humans

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#378

Post by saalweachter »

rootusrootus wrote: post #375
saalweachter wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Results: A 5-mph increase in the maximum state speed limit was associated with an 8.5% increase in fatality rates on interstates/freeways and a 2.8% increase on other roads. In total during the 25-year study period, there were an estimated 36,760 more traffic fatalities than would have been expected if maximum speed limits had not increased—13,638 on interstates/freeways and 23,122 on other roads. https://www.iihs.…

I do not understand the point you are making here. I did not make an argument in favor of increasing the speed limit.

I believe I replied to the wrong person!

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#379

Post by LeifCarrotson »

rootusrootus wrote: post #174
LeifCarrotson wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because American drivers have normalized always driving 10 mph (16 km/h) over the speed limit. Cops won't pull you over or write tickets if you're not at least 15 mph over, we basically don't have speed cameras, everyone's trying to win the rat race and dehumanizing other cars around them, and it's not considered morally wrong (by most) to break that specific part of the law. So a single vehicle obeying the law will…

> my ancient truck, steel bumper, and class 5 receiver hitch will not be badly harmed by your plastic grille I've been rear-ended in my truck, and the receiver punched a nice hole right through the radiator of the guy who hit me. Definitely fucked his car up way more than it did my truck ... except man, that is definitely one of the hardest impacts I've ever felt in my body. I now appreciate how hard the head rests r…

I've actually been involved in the commissioning of an FMVSS 202a headrest strength tester.

A lot of science and work goes into the construction of those headrests - if it was less firm, you'd get a concussion from the rotational forces in the whiplash or just break your neck, more firm and you'll get a concussion from the linear impact. It's not at all arbitrary, there's a reason they are exactly as firm as they are.

Re: Waymo Safety Impact

#380

Post by LeifCarrotson »

Ferret7446 wrote: post #243
LeifCarrotson wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo immitates humans insofar as its neural net trained on avoiding collisions after millions of miles of video footage and LIDAR data on roads shared with humans causes it to immitate humans. It's likely manually programmed not to (incorrectly) turn the wheel to the left while stopped and waiting for an opportunity to turn. If you get rear-ended, you'll end up in the lane of oncoming traffic. It's certainly program…

> It's likely manually programmed not to (incorrectly) turn the wheel to the left while stopped and waiting for an opportunity to turn. I'm both surprised and not surprised that people do this. You'll hit the divider.

The divider? What divider?
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