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I'm OK being left behind, thanks

shkspr.mobi

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Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#201

Post by js8 »

draftsman wrote: post #133
samiv wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot but agree. It's a massive skill leveling where software development is transforming from high skilled coding to low skilled prompting. For an old dog like myself it feels an unjust rug pull.

LLMs have lowered the bar for the unskilled person to create shit software. I have used Opus 4.6 on a number of projects, and it still spits out buggy, and sometimes, flat out broken code. I was actually surprised when it completely hallucinated the names of query params for an HTTP request in my code, when in the prompt I had explicitly given it the exact names it needed to use. I thought these frontier models were…

> LLMs have lowered the bar for the unskilled person to create shit software.

So? Demand the source code. Run your own AI to review the quality of the code base. The contracting company doesn't want to do it? Fine, find one that will.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#202

Post by apsurd »

postalcoder wrote: post #173
stavros wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely having a blast, but I agree with the author. You're not going to get left behind, the "getting left behind" rhetoric was just cryptocurrency pump-and-dumpers. It's fine to wait and not engage if you don't want to.

I agree with you, which is why I think it's a straw man. How many real devs are actually banging the "you're getting left behind!" drums?

It can be implicit though.

The llm person having a blast is compelled to push everyone to see what they see. If they have a leadership role at their company, then the getting-left-behind drum does get banged in the form of "ai native company transformation" initiatives.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#203

Post by hombre_fatal »

gradus_ad wrote: post #193
stiiv wrote: post #33

> If this tech is as amazing as you say it is, I'll be able to pick it up and become productive on a timescale of my choosing not yours. Broadly speaking, I think this is a wise assessment. There are opportunities for productivity gains right now, but it I don't think it's a knockout for anyone using the tech, and I think that onboarding might be challenging for some people in the tech's current state. It is safe to…

But it's so easy to try something like Claude Code. It's not like you need to get up to speed. There is no learning curve*, that's the nature of AI. Just start using it and you'll see why it has attracted so much hype. *I should qualify that "using" CC in the strict sense has no learning curve, but really getting the most out of it may take some time as you see its limitations. But it's not learning tech in the tradi…

I think it comes down to your own personality, appetite, and also how external factors like hype might impact you (resent, annoyance, curiosity, excitement).

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#204

Post by PurpleRamen »

simianwords wrote: post #26

Its interesting to see this author's historical takes about AI. IMO it reads a little desperate and very much like the hype bros but from opposite side. Take a look at the articles if you don't believe. https://shkspr.mobi/blog/tag/ai/ - I'm OK being left behind, thanks! - Unstructured Data and the Joy of having Something Else think for you - This time is different - How close are we to a vision for 2010? - AI is a N…

> IMO it reads a little desperate and very much like the hype bros but from opposite side.

I would coin it Chill Guys, and I claim on average they are more often correct than hype bros. We all know the old saying that nobody ever was fired for selecting an established solution/technology. Being chill, staying safe, it's more beneficial in real business. Just wait until the hype has normalized and then start dabbling with the new, when all others starting doing it also. You may not be the frontrunner of a new wave, but you can still ride it well. You are only really left behind when everyone changed, and your income starts drying up, until then, it's just business as usual.

And always remember: when ChatGPT started its hype, many were predicting Googles death and the end of Web searches. Now, 3(?) years later, Google is still around, the search is still going strong, and Gemini is seriously competing with ChatGPT. Hypes come fast and die fast.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#205

Post by bonoboTP »

slfnflctd wrote: post #165
bethekidyouwant wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must be joking that being a car mechanic is anything like it was 20 years ago.

The vast majority of tires that need to be repaired or replaced (and the processes to do so) haven't changed much if at all, though. And there are entire franchises that pretty much only do tires. Same with many other manual labor tasks. These are predictable jobs with very few variables that there is still no sign of automation replacing any time soon. They often don't suck as bad as people think. One of the most en…

Hm, why don't you just go do it then? Seems strange to spread this knowledge and create competition for yourself.

Theres a reason most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college instead of to such manual jobs.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#206

Post by hparadiz »

fdghrtbrt wrote: post #179
hparadiz wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At one point I lived in the Soviet Union but that's not really relevant to my point.

I don't understand your point. You said it would be nice to live..... what does that have to do with bitcoin? What's your point? Make a point.

My point is your opinion is sheltered and lacks life experience.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#207

Post by 0x3f »

anticorporate wrote: post #113
wolframhempel wrote: post #50

There's value in being early - in the right thing. - If you'd invested in Bitcoin in 2016, you'd have made a 200x return - If you'd specialized in neural networks before the transformer paper, you'd be one of the most sought-after specialists right now - If you'd started making mobile games when the iPhone was released, you could have built the first Candy Crush Of course, you could just as well have - become an Acti…

There may be financial value in being early (if you're lucky), but there are other values in waiting. My goal in life is not to maximize financial return, it's to maximize my impact on things I care about. I try to stay comfortable enough financially to have the luxury to make the decisions that allow me to keep doing things I care about when the opportunities come along. Deciding whether something new is the right p…

> My goal in life is not to maximize financial return, it's to maximize my impact on things I care about.

In the vast majority of cases, financial returns help maximize your impact on the things you care about. Arguably in most cases it's more effective for you to provide the financing and direction but not be directly involved. That's why the EA guys are off beng quants.

The only real exceptions are things that specifically require you personally, like investing time with your family, or developing yourself in some way.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#208

Post by nailer »

I'm glad I missed: GraphQL, Kubernetes, Microservices, the Metaverse.

I'm glad I jumped early on: Linux, Python, virtualization, cloud, nodejs, Solana.

I wish I'd gotten into Rust and LLMs earlier.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#209

Post by aleph_minus_one »

wolframhempel wrote: post #50

There's value in being early - in the right thing. - If you'd invested in Bitcoin in 2016, you'd have made a 200x return - If you'd specialized in neural networks before the transformer paper, you'd be one of the most sought-after specialists right now - If you'd started making mobile games when the iPhone was released, you could have built the first Candy Crush Of course, you could just as well have - become an Acti…

> - If you'd specialized in neural networks before the transformer paper, you'd be one of the most sought-after specialists right now

> - If you'd started making mobile games when the iPhone was released, you could have built the first Candy Crush

I disagree:

Concerning the first point: how neural networks are today is very different from how they were in former days. So, the knowledge of neural networks from the past does only very partially transfer to modern neural networks, and clearly does not make you a very sought-after specialist right now.

Concerning your second point: the success of mobile games is very marketing-centric. While it is plausible that being early in mobile games development when the iPhone was released might have opened doors in the game industry for you, I seriously doubt whether having this skill would have made you rich.

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