I'm OK being left behind, thanks • Hacker News Board

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#111

Post by nsfmc » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC

> For every HTML 2.0 you might have tried, you were just as likely to have got stuck in the dead-end of Flash.

i'll just say, and i understand this is not the point of the article at all, but for all its faults, if you got in on flash as earl as html 2.0 and you were staring at an upcoming dead-end of flash in say, 2009, you also knew or had been exposed at that time to plenty of javascript, e4x and what were essentially entirely clientside SPAs, providing you a sort of bizarro view of the future of react in a couple of years. honestly, not a bad offramp even if flash itself didn't make it.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#112

Post by sd9 » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC

> If this tech is as amazing as you say it is, I'll be able to pick it up and become productive on a timescale of my choosing not yours.

In contrast to the current top comment [1], I don't think this is a wise assessment. I'm already seeing companies in my network stall hiring, and in fact start firing. I think if you're not trying to take advantage of this technology today then there may not be a place for you tomorrow.

I find it hard to empathise with people who can't get value out of AI. It feels like they must be in a completely different bubble to me. I trust their experience, but in my own experience, it has made things possible in a matter of hours that I would never have even bothered to try.

Besides the individual contributor angle, where AI can make you code at Nx the rate of before (where N is say... between 0.5 and 10), I think the ownership class are really starting to see it differently from ICs. I initially thought: "wow, this tool makes me twice as productive, that's great". But that extra value doesn't accrue to individuals, it accrues to business owners. And the business owners I'm observing are thinking: "wow, this tool is a new paradigm making many people twice as productive. How far can we push this?"

The business owners I know who have been successful historically are seeing a 2x improvement and are completely unsatisfied. It's shattered their perspective on what is possible, and they're rebuilding their understanding of business from first principles with the new information. I think this is what the people who emerge as winners tomorrow are doing today. The game has changed.

Speaking as an IC who is both more productive than last year, but simultaneously more worried.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47454614

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#113

Post by anticorporate » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC

wolframhempel wrote: post #50

There's value in being early - in the right thing. - If you'd invested in Bitcoin in 2016, you'd have made a 200x return - If you'd specialized in neural networks before the transformer paper, you'd be one of the most sought-after specialists right now - If you'd started making mobile games when the iPhone was released, you could have built the first Candy Crush Of course, you could just as well have - become an Acti…

There may be financial value in being early (if you're lucky), but there are other values in waiting.

My goal in life is not to maximize financial return, it's to maximize my impact on things I care about. I try to stay comfortable enough financially to have the luxury to make the decisions that allow me to keep doing things I care about when the opportunities come along.

Deciding whether something new is the right path for me usually takes a little time to assess where it's headed and what the impacts may be.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#114

Post by aavci » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC

edent wrote: post #101

aavci wrote: post #64

FOMO is making me feel like I should mess around with openclaw but I can’t see any use cases that I can’t accomplish with other tools. What should I do based on this article?

I recommend going to the pub with some friends and having a chat about anything that isn't work.

Nice blog btw

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#115

Post by bastawhiz » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC

keiferski wrote: post #56

I actually think the opposite approach might be the most optimal one, at least from a monetary perspective. That is, be on the cutting-edge of something, but be willing to bail out at the moment its future starts seeming questionable. Or even more specifically, maximize your foothold in it while minimizing your downside. Bitcoin is a good example: if you bought it 15 years ago and held it, you're probably quite wealt…

How do you know what not to invest in then? Bitcoin wasn't the only cryptocurrency fifteen years ago. It wasn't even the first digital currency. If you hop on every bandwagon, you'll go broke far more then you become wealthy. Just look at all the people who poured money into NFTs or digital real estate in the metaverse or Dogecoin or whatever.

It's easy to say "well of course I would have invested in Google in 1999" but there was nothing in 1999 to say that Google was going to be as big as it was. Why not Lycos or Dogpile or AskJeeves?

How many people dedicated their careers to Flash, only to have it die at the hands of Steve Jobs and HTML5? It's not just about bailing out: lots of folks had to start over because taking advantage of the opportunity means actually investing real time and money. "As a tulip bulb producer, I would have simply stopped producing tulip bulbs when it started to seem questionable." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#116

Post by bethekidyouwant » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC

bogzz wrote: post #29

It's a horrifying feeling facing the possibility that the career I spent so much time and money to get into is fading away. Sure, LLMs are not there yet, and they might not ever quite get there. But will companies start hiring again? If productivity has gone up, and it seems like it has, then no. So, a decade of hanging by a thread, getting by and doubling down on CS, hoping that the job market sees an uptick? Or try…

You must be joking that being a car mechanic is anything like it was 20 years ago.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#117

Post by demaga » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC

wolframhempel wrote: post #50

There's value in being early - in the right thing. - If you'd invested in Bitcoin in 2016, you'd have made a 200x return - If you'd specialized in neural networks before the transformer paper, you'd be one of the most sought-after specialists right now - If you'd started making mobile games when the iPhone was released, you could have built the first Candy Crush Of course, you could just as well have - become an Acti…

None of those examples are useful.

1. 2016 was years after Bitcoin was developed. So you could still make 200x returns without being early adopter.

2. Is this even true? I'd bet scraping experts or people who can fine tune LLMs have easier time finding a job than classical ML academics.

3. Candy Crash was released when iPhone was on its 5th iteration.

If anything, you just added to OPs points. Being an early adopter gives limited advantage.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#118

Post by adriancooney » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC

Tade0 wrote: post #97

adriancooney wrote: post #12

There are real productivity gains by using these tools right now. Instead of doing 1x your normal work, you can do 5x while still maintaining quality. This is like an accountant sticking to pen and paper because calculators are big and clunky.

> Instead of doing 1x your normal work, you can do 5x while still maintaining quality. That's a gross overestimate. 2x I would maybe believe. Someone has to sign off your work and unless it's hard to write but easy to read, this is where the bottleneck currently lies.

Everything is relative. If your systems aren't adapted to AI development, it will be much lower.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#119

Post by ambicapter » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC

intrasight wrote: post #90

linsomniac wrote: post #69

>I didn't use Git when it first came out. This really hinges on what you mean by "didn't use git". If you were using bzr or svn, that's one thing. If you were saving multiple copies of files ("foo.old.didntwork" and the like), then I'd submit that you're making the point for the AI supporters. I consulted with a couple developers at the local university as recently as a couple years ago who were still doing the copy…

Pretty sure he meant he didn't use Git. I'm still stuck with TFS and SVN in my day jobs but use Git on and off on side projects. I really wish all my clients would just switch to Git.

Git is old and busted, jj is the new hotness.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#120

Post by bombcar » Fri, Mar 20, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC

aavci wrote: post #64

FOMO is making me feel like I should mess around with openclaw but I can’t see any use cases that I can’t accomplish with other tools. What should I do based on this article?

Don't just do something, stand there!

Like investing in index funds, a big part of it is psychology of the individual as Jeeves would say.

Find a way to scratch the FOMO itch without taking on too much risk.