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Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

reuters.com

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Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#401

Post by JumpCrisscross »

"The world’s biggest energy consumer nations are now back at the drawing board: Europe last week unveiled new financial guarantees for atomic power after decades of closing nuclear plants. Other major importers are planning to source fuel from a broader array of suppliers to hedge their risk."

I'm not seeing it.

The European plan sounds like another goal to have a proposal in ten years [1]. And hedging imports of fossil fuels doesn't reduce dependence, just dependence on a particular source.

[1] https://www.nucnet.org/news/von-der-leyen-sets-out-eu-smr-st...

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#402

Post by JumpCrisscross »

empyrrhicist wrote: post #217
tac19 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It feels like this collective insanity will never end They simply do not believe that the consequences will be as bad as the models predict. And a lot of trust and good will has been expended on social issues, for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose, or to promote childhood reassignment surgery, etc. As a strategic decision, we have taken our eye off the ball, climate…

> for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose Ugh, I'm going to regret commenting here, but it really seems like this obsession is almost entirely on the right wing. In the US, the centrist Dems have been banging the appeasement drum for my entire political life, and it's gotten us nowhere. Like... the right isn't going to wake up and start caring about climate change if eve…

> the right isn't going to wake up and start caring about climate change if everyone just shuts up and lets them discriminate against the hate group of the moment

No. But a lot of people in the center will listen to academics again if they don't think they're being lectured on a new definition of bigotry every fifteen minutes.

Also, from what I can tell, the issue of trans rights caused issues in the centre when it lept to kids' sports. Even the bathrooms were mostly the edges of the political spectrum screaming at each other. But when it touched kids' sports, a lot of folks got off their couches, and that was–given the stakes–a sort of needless battle.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#403

Post by JumpCrisscross »

chazzalpha wrote: post #370
cogman10 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all about propaganda. Rightwing media is incredibly well funded and a big portion of that reason is because rich people have been using propaganda to boost their industries since almost forever. Republicans in the late 60s were the party of the EPA. What changed? People like the Koch brothers dumped literal millions into rightwing outlets big and small to talk about how awesome it is to burn oil. A similar thing…

The propaganda machine is powerful, precisely because the ultra-wealthy who fund it want the people to fight a culture war instead of a class war. The wealthy have been successfully astroturfing right-wing anti-democratic movements for decades, to the point that fascism is making a comeback. Climate-change denial was one of their earlier experiments, and anti-trans psyop is their most recent. The result is the same,…

> the ultra-wealthy who fund it want the people to fight a culture war instead of a class war

We're capable of fighting more than one political war at a time. All evidence points to the donor class actually being vested in these culture war issues. Democrat donors prioritise Gaza and trans issues. MAGA donors prioritise Israel and Bible thumping. The Adelsons aren't donating to GOP candidates to distract anyome class issues, they're donating because they have non-economic policy preferences to push.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#404

Post by tfourb »

inglor_cz wrote: post #399
tfourb wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you invest in nuclear power, which is several times more expensive per kwh than wind + battery in Denmark, which also has excellent links to reliable hydropower from Norway and Sweden? Especially when your greatest external security threat is Russia which has openly threatened targeting nuclear reactors of a country they are trying to invade? Not to speak of the inconvenient fact that Uranium is not a resou…

I am a bit surprised that a engineer-heavy forum does not think about scaling of batteries. If everyone in the developed world starts to build batteries massively - in the extent necessary to bridge multiple days of bad weather for millions of people , because that is what happens quite often in northern half of Europe in winter - there will be new strategic dependencies, at least during the buildup phase, and then i…

There are already battery chemistries available that do not rely on lithium and drastically reduce the usage of other suplly-contrained inputs. Especially for stationary storage (where energy density and weight are not much of a concern) there is a wide array of technologies already available and in development.

And as you yourself say: once a battery has been built, it simply exists. There is a very gradual deterioration, but nothing even close to the "just in time" dependency that we are experiencing in this very moment when it comes to fossil fuels.

For a strategic independence point of view, being reliant on a global value chain to replace existing infrastructure every 15 years beats being reliant on a global value chain to replace your tank of gas every day by miles. Don't let perfect become the enemy of good!

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#405

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tac19 wrote: post #238
empyrrhicist wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose Ugh, I'm going to regret commenting here, but it really seems like this obsession is almost entirely on the right wing. In the US, the centrist Dems have been banging the appeasement drum for my entire political life, and it's gotten us nowhere. Like... the right isn't going to wake up and start caring about climate change if eve…

> climate change is a bigger issue - so why can't we focus on it? What it needed was for strong left-wing people to stand up and denounce the distraction. To claim loud and proudly that transgender issues were not important when compared to climate change. To refocus the public on climate change and take the wind out of the fringe issue. Instead, we took to the street for BLM, when it wasn't an important issue, when…

> What it needed was for strong left-wing people to stand up and denounce the distraction

Here's the reality: very few people actually believe climate change is an existential problem. As you say, this is abundantly signalled by very few folks being willing to compromise on other beliefs to advance it.

Want to build infrastructure? Cut taxes? Suddenly, people can put their differences aside. Want to do anything on the climate? Everyone has a policy bogeyman to attach, whether it be union requirements and gender issues or immigration and religious tests.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#406

Post by robocat »

tfourb wrote: post #313
modo_mario wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear production doesn't react in seconds but it doesn't need permanent demand as far as I know? What makes you think that?

A nuclear reactor can load-follow (increase or decrease their output) by up to 5% of their rated capacity per minute in normal operation: https://snetp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SNETP-Factsheet-... For power plants, this is glacial. A power grid has to balanced perfectly on a sub-second level. Also, you can only do this down to about 50% of rated capacity. Below that you have to switch it off completely. If you c…

> If you combine this with renewable generation, it all falls apart

Rubbish. Only true if the renewable generation is poorly integrated. Solar plus batteries can provide synthetic inertia if the incentives/regulations are correctly designed.

Australia has been adding oodles of solar, and they have been doing it surprisingly well.

Nuclear can load follow, within limitations: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36254716

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#407

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tfourb wrote: post #404
inglor_cz wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a bit surprised that a engineer-heavy forum does not think about scaling of batteries. If everyone in the developed world starts to build batteries massively - in the extent necessary to bridge multiple days of bad weather for millions of people , because that is what happens quite often in northern half of Europe in winter - there will be new strategic dependencies, at least during the buildup phase, and then i…

There are already battery chemistries available that do not rely on lithium and drastically reduce the usage of other suplly-contrained inputs. Especially for stationary storage (where energy density and weight are not much of a concern) there is a wide array of technologies already available and in development. And as you yourself say: once a battery has been built, it simply exists. There is a very gradual deterior…

> There are already battery chemistries available that do not rely on lithium

Not being mass produced. Betting on multiple horses makes sense. It's perhaps the singular lesson from the present problem.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#408

Post by [deleted] »

cogman10 wrote: post #382
BLKNSLVR wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The attention to those fringe issues is brought by those conservatives and lobbyists etc who explicitly want to distract and divide attention from climate change and renewables. It's strongly my opinion that there are far fewer people championing 'wokeness' than there are 'getting outraged by it's pervasiveness'. Mainly for the fact that all media like to seize upon controversy, thus turning minor fringe issues into…

IMO, "wokeness" is usually a reaction to the reactionary. Being transgender wasn't some sort of political football 10 years ago even though 10 years ago basically everything that was happening WRT trans individuals that made the pearl clutchers clutch pearls was happening then and earlier. The only reason "the left" started caring about trans individuals is because right wing reactionaries decided that it was the sou…

[deleted]

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#409

Post by bombon »

cogman10 wrote: post #382
BLKNSLVR wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The attention to those fringe issues is brought by those conservatives and lobbyists etc who explicitly want to distract and divide attention from climate change and renewables. It's strongly my opinion that there are far fewer people championing 'wokeness' than there are 'getting outraged by it's pervasiveness'. Mainly for the fact that all media like to seize upon controversy, thus turning minor fringe issues into…

IMO, "wokeness" is usually a reaction to the reactionary. Being transgender wasn't some sort of political football 10 years ago even though 10 years ago basically everything that was happening WRT trans individuals that made the pearl clutchers clutch pearls was happening then and earlier. The only reason "the left" started caring about trans individuals is because right wing reactionaries decided that it was the sou…

Dismissing all of this as some sort of right-wing moral panic avoids engaging with legitimate feminist objections.

It's not "insane" to question whether males should be allowed to access female-only spaces, or to resist the erosion of sex categories in law. Many women on the left have done exactly that, and have been vilified and harassed for it.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#410

Post by JumpCrisscross »

cpursley wrote: post #295
0dayz wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not mostly true: Israel's anti air defense works surprisingly well against Iran's attack, the issue has always been 2 things: Who has more missiles to throw? And the Patriot is still top class in it's designed goal: shooting down ballistic and cruise missiles. The second big thing is that no one has designed air defense to take into account effectively slow moving artillery pieces that have the same maneuvera…

The aging Patriot in particular was exposed in Ukraine. You can watch video after video of them failing even against older ballistics - they have basically no chance against hypersonic and other fast ballistics, especially ones with active measures (flares, maneuvering - there was a really wild one from a few weeks back). And there's a number out of this conflict as well. The are still great at shooting down jets, ho…

> aging Patriot in particular was exposed in Ukraine. You can watch video after video of them failing even against older ballistics

Decades-old Patriots shot down Russia's newest "hypersonic" missile.

> Top of class is actually S-4/500, this is basically acknowledged fact by even the Pentagon at this point

What? Source? You're describing the systems that have been getting floored the world over. Why do you think nobody is placing orders for these anymore?

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