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Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

reuters.com

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Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#351

Post by nandomrumber »

Tostino wrote: post #344
nandomrumber wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> long-term climate cost of burning that newly available fuel is still being passed on to the future. That’s not science. That’s wishful thinking. We can’t actually know the long term climate-costs of burning fossil fuels. It’s unfalsifiable. We don’t have a second identical Earth we can use as a control. Expending the fossil fuel supply today (months) reduces the impact of global oil / gas shocks to people suffering…

Your initial claim was that Europe should start opening more wells for domestic production. If they started right now, that would help with this current oil/ gas shock in the market? They wouldn't come online until far after this is over. You know you're being disingenuous. This is not a discussion you're having in good faith so I'm going to just going to end it here.

Months to years vs your plan of doing nothing for decades, with technology that doesn’t exist.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#352

Post by toomuchtodo »

nandomrumber wrote: post #350
toomuchtodo wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’ve been following you for 13 years in this site, and I really expect more intellectually honest comments from you. I believe the failure is on your part, not my part, as I am simply providing facts. Whether you agree with facts is beyond my control. They remain facts. You keep stating, inaccurately, that renewables and batteries are expensive, when they are the cheapest combined generation technology. This is wid…

I’m an Australian living in Australia connected to the eastern grid. I have the invoices from my electricity bills to prove my assertion. I used to pay 12 cents per kilowatt hour, now I pay 36 cents or more. That’s a 300% increase for electricity prices vs, if I recall correctly, 26% for general inflation over the same 25 year period. And you’re trying to tell me I’m wrong. Why? I’ll believe a drop in electricity pri…

Renewables do not reduce the need for grid investment costs between generators and you, that revenue and capital would be required regardless if you are unable or unwilling to produce all of the electricity to meet your domestic consumption requirements from rooftop solar and on site battery storage.

Wholesale generation costs + distribution costs + taxes = your bill.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#353

Post by Tiktaalik »

schnitzelstoat wrote: post #2

Yeah, I live in Spain and probably once again we'll have restrictions on AC in the summer just like at the start of the Ukraine war. Hopefully, we can avoid actual blackouts. The bizarre thing is that our government still wants to close down the remaining nuclear power plants. One of the issues with our proportional electoral system is that smaller, more extreme parties can become kingmakers and in our current situat…

> One of the issues with our proportional electoral system is that smaller, more extreme parties can become kingmakers and in our current situation the centre-left governing party relies on the support of the far-left party to stay in power, and those guys are rabidly anti-nuclear power.

A side comment but I'm sad to say I don't think that another electoral system (or at least not FPTP) fixes this issue of there being a niche group being kingmakers.

In FPTP the dynamic that occurs is that an enormous amount of seats become "safe" and then the kingmakers end up being the relative handful of seats that are likely to trade hands. This ends up creating distortions where certain regional seats and regional issues rise well above how important they should be.

PR seems like a more fair way to represent a niche group. At least they are a genuinely representative part of the population, and the influence isn't an accident of electoral math distortion.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#354

Post by mrguyorama »

dboreham wrote: post #173
cpursley wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big story I think is how handily they took out billions of dollars of US radars and that these air defense systems are not up to the task (we actually already knew this from Ukraine, but media worked overtime to ignore this fact). In a way, all this supposedly "superior" US and Israeli tech (at least on the defense side, offense is a different story) has been exposed. I do think focused engineering efforts could…

No serious person believes ballistic missile defense works. This isn't a fringe belief. There was a major movie with this theme released last year.

The lay public is almost certainly unaware that perfect, nation scale ICBM defense is fucking impossible. At least in the US.

People in Israel are probably more accustomed to what a "High but not perfect" interception rate means.

But people in the US are just really dumb about things. They probably think it just needs "Enough money" or "A breakthrough" as if that's just a magic spell you can cast to get around physics.

However, modern anti-ballistic missile defense systems are effective enough that if you spend enough money you can defeat, with high probability, half to most of the incoming weapons. It involves firing many many interceptors against each incoming threat. It does not scale.

This is why it is generally deployed as a way to blunt, possibly not even defeat a North Korean nuclear attack. Nothing more.

Shorter range ballistic missiles suck. They still have the crazy high velocity terminal phase, but they are way cheaper to produce. I don't think it's possible to defend against them economically.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#355

Post by aaplok »

nandomrumber wrote: post #256
davidw wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well "Europeans on Twitter" are probably the kind of people who look at the owner of the site posting about a homeland for white people and that kind of thing and aren't bothered too much by it.

[flagged]

> It doesn’t matter how blue you die your hair

If your intention is honest engagement with people you disagree with, you should refrain from ad-hominem attacks like this. Work with their arguments, not with their tastes or appearances.

If your intention is to ridicule them and convince yourself they are not worth discussing with, then ad-hominem is fine, but not engaging at all is better.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#356

Post by Leherenn »

modo_mario wrote: post #290
Chyzwar wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Levelized Cost of Energy for solar is 30-60$ and 100-200$ for nuclear. In the case of Spain, it is cheaper to build more energy lines with Morocco and battery storage than to use nuclear. Spain already has some of the cheapest energy in Europe thanks to renewables. In the case of Germany, nuclear makes sense, but it is not clear where you would buy fuel for it, It might still be a supply chain risk since Russia and K…

>Levelized Cost of Energy for solar is 30-60$ and 100-200$ for nuclear. With the storage for shitty winter weeks? What's the source on that one? Mind you I love solar since i'd like to go relatively off grid one day but i've heard too much bullshit around this. >but it is not clear where you would buy fuel for it, It might still be a supply chain risk since Russia and Kazakhstan are the main players there. There's a…

I believe the standard is 4h of storage.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#358

Post by empyrrhicist »

asmsecnd wrote: post #338
empyrrhicist wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose Ugh, I'm going to regret commenting here, but it really seems like this obsession is almost entirely on the right wing. In the US, the centrist Dems have been banging the appeasement drum for my entire political life, and it's gotten us nowhere. Like... the right isn't going to wake up and start caring about climate change if eve…

In the US, it was the left who decided to push gender identity into law and policy, with no regard to the adverse consequences of doing so. That the right decided to capitalize on this for political reasons is just them taking an opportunity that was basically handed to them on a plate. Interestingly it's a bit different in the UK. Both the main left and right parties had been promoting gender identity based policy f…

I don't think you and I live in the same information universe, since I disagree with literally every thing you've said here. Unfortunately I don't have the energy to productively try to disabuse you of (what I believe are) delusions, misinformation and ignorance, so... have a nice day I guess.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#359

Post by fy20 »

readitalready wrote: post #85
schnitzelstoat wrote: post #2

Yeah, I live in Spain and probably once again we'll have restrictions on AC in the summer just like at the start of the Ukraine war. Hopefully, we can avoid actual blackouts. The bizarre thing is that our government still wants to close down the remaining nuclear power plants. One of the issues with our proportional electoral system is that smaller, more extreme parties can become kingmakers and in our current situat…

Seems Europe also has the option of using Northern Africa as a solar energy hub as well. Is that a viable option?

There's plenty of land in Spain that would be suitable too. Outside of the major cities, Spain is very sparsly populated:

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fe...

It could actually be beneficial in a lot of places to have agrovoltaics.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#360

Post by roncesvalles »

hliyan wrote: post #214

I heard somewhere that there is some sort of evangelical Christian sect in Korea that believes the current US president was sent by God. Not as a positive force, but as a force to end the global status quo (which I suppose they consider unjust). I find this fascinating because the US president's actions so far have: exposed decade-old myths about the rule-based international order, caused the EU to seek more self-rel…

I still think Trump has been a net good upon the world.

Trump's actions have actually jumpstarted economic reforms in several countries. For example, just last year Canada made serious moves towards "One Canadian Economy"[1] to rationalize interprovincial trade among other things.

The developed world, but especially NATO countries, need to wean off America's teat for their own good.

[1] https://www.canada.ca/en/one-canadian-economy/services/build...

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