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Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

reuters.com

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Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#211

Post by devilbunny »

darth_avocado wrote: post #203
devilbunny wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we need to resume drilling in the North Sea and Groningen Well, there's also the simple reality that the US doesn't actually need fossil fuels from the Middle East or Russia in the same way Europe does. It affects prices here, obviously, and an increase in energy prices can do severe damage to the economy, but it's not a potentially existential crisis in the same way.

Funny part about oil is that it’s in everything. US is energy independent, but its supply chain is not. AI chips, for example, which prop up the entire economy need oil for the various materials needed to produce it. The other funny part about oil is that it has an inelastic demand. A 20% reduction in global supply doesn’t mean a 20% increase in prices. It means increase in prices until 20% demand collapses (which co…

Oh, I know, but "we are going to freeze to death in a month" is a far stronger motivator than "the economy is going to go into a tailspin".

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#212

Post by cpursley »

dmix wrote: post #194
lm28469 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10+ radars have been destroyed, I'm not sure which ones were "saved" https://abcnews.com/International/us-allied-radar-sites-midd...

That doesn't say 10+ radars have been destroyed. It says radar sites have been attacked 10 times across 7 locations in 6 countries, with some damaged and some destroyed. This biggest loss was the mobile THAAD radar in Jordan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPY-2_transportable_radar There's also evidence they hit a building in Saudi Arabia containing a AN/TPY-2 but it's not clear if it was damaged Plus a couple video…

C-RAM radars - at least one US embassy was hit with an elcheapo drone as well, rendering it useless. Thats a legit problem and was only possible because they took out most of the important ballistics radars first.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#213

Post by javcasas »

spacephysics wrote: post #186
ryukafalz wrote: post #44

As someone who's been pushing for renewables for quite a while now it's dismaying that it's taken a war to accelerate this push, but I'm glad to see that it's happening at least. It's doubly dismaying that my own country (US) is still doubling down on fossil fuels despite everything. The concern about a new dependency on China is real, but renewables do have the advantage that once you have the infrastructure in plac…

Unfortunately much of China’s perverse tactics (they’ve done this in a wide array of industries) is to steal patented tech and trade secrets from companies outside China, subsidize the manufacturing and development etc, then sell their product at an artificially low price which kills the original company and good faith competitors as they cannot compete with the artificially lower prices. Then once the dust settles t…

And the US subsidizes corn and attacks other oil producers. And Korea puts tariffs to benefit their local technology industry.

Welcome to the real world. Whoever isn't cheating is losing.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#214

Post by hliyan »

I heard somewhere that there is some sort of evangelical Christian sect in Korea that believes the current US president was sent by God. Not as a positive force, but as a force to end the global status quo (which I suppose they consider unjust). I find this fascinating because the US president's actions so far have: exposed decade-old myths about the rule-based international order, caused the EU to seek more self-reliance, caused former enemies in Asia to consider alliances and now accelerate the end to fossil fuel dependence. One could argue that the results of his actions are indistinguishable from that of a double agent's.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#215

Post by Theodores »

spacephysics wrote: post #186
ryukafalz wrote: post #44

As someone who's been pushing for renewables for quite a while now it's dismaying that it's taken a war to accelerate this push, but I'm glad to see that it's happening at least. It's doubly dismaying that my own country (US) is still doubling down on fossil fuels despite everything. The concern about a new dependency on China is real, but renewables do have the advantage that once you have the infrastructure in plac…

Unfortunately much of China’s perverse tactics (they’ve done this in a wide array of industries) is to steal patented tech and trade secrets from companies outside China, subsidize the manufacturing and development etc, then sell their product at an artificially low price which kills the original company and good faith competitors as they cannot compete with the artificially lower prices. Then once the dust settles t…

Really? How did anywhere get started?

Germany ripped off British engineering texts because they had no copyright laws there.

America got started taking what was started elsewhere, the same can be said for any country except for Scotland.

I think those lovely Chinese people would laugh at your sinophobic 'thinking'. Maybe stay off the corporate media and do your own research.

Huawei are an amazing company, all of their kit is highly innovative, but too good for you and your slave masters. Hence the lies. In fact, if you want a computer that isn't 'NSA Inside', go with Huawei. You won't look back, although they won't sell you a PC with Nvidia in it or a phone with Google in it because of your government.

Solar panels? Germany did the work on that, China bought the IP and did the production engineering. All is legit.

Besides, that screen you are looking at, was that made in America? Nah, it is going to be China, outside chance, Korea.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#216

Post by noelsusman »

pif wrote: post #158
noelsusman wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being a net exporter of a global commodity is only relevant in an extremely acute crisis (e.g. WWIII). Plus one of the reasons why we export so much oil is because it's cheaper to import oil to a refinery in New Jersey from Saudi Arabia than to get it there from Texas due to some very stupid US laws.

Hello, could you please elaborate about those laws?

The Jones Act requires that all goods transported by water between US ports be carried on ships that were built in the US, fly the US flag, and crewed by US citizens. That effectively makes it impossible to ship oil between US states at scale without a direct pipeline.

Though to be clear I believe we would still be a net exporter without the Jones Act, it's just one of those weird things about the US oil industry.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#217

Post by empyrrhicist »

tac19 wrote: post #185
davedx wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been arguing with Europeans on twitter (including an environmental scientist) who believe this war shows we need to resume drilling in the North Sea and Groningen. It feels like this collective insanity will never end

> It feels like this collective insanity will never end They simply do not believe that the consequences will be as bad as the models predict. And a lot of trust and good will has been expended on social issues, for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose, or to promote childhood reassignment surgery, etc. As a strategic decision, we have taken our eye off the ball, climate…

> for example the fight to allow transgender people to use whatever bathroom they choose

Ugh, I'm going to regret commenting here, but it really seems like this obsession is almost entirely on the right wing. In the US, the centrist Dems have been banging the appeasement drum for my entire political life, and it's gotten us nowhere.

Like... the right isn't going to wake up and start caring about climate change if everyone just shuts up and lets them discriminate against the hate group of the moment. The bathroom thing is also such a bait and switch, same as sports. In my state, we removed protections for housing and employment discrimination against trans people because... one trans athlete existed?

The real question we need to answer is why the right is so obsessed with other peoples' genitals, to the point that they have to make up stories and generate AI videos to get mad at.

I for one am sick of people focusing on a tiny fraction of the population and making them a scapegoat for everything. You're absolutely right that climate change is a bigger issue - so why can't we focus on it?

We can't focus on it because the anti-reality reactionaries are using trans people as a distraction. It's all one big malignant tumor on society, not a collection of unrelated issues.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#218

Post by slashdev »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #182
slashdev wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Europe should resume drilling in the North Sea and Groningen if they have exploitable reserves there. Europe depends on energy imports and that won't change in our lifetimes (I'm in my early forties, so at least in my lifetime.) They should take advantage of whatever resources they have. I'm guessing you think otherwise? Why? Do you think the energy transition will be faster? What makes you think that?

It would be an inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration considering the deployment rates and cost decline curves of renewables and storage. Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily) Ember Energy: Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the first time in 2025 - https://ember-ener…

You're talking about electricity, so I assume your answer is directed to the natural gas fields at Groningen. The EU imports a lot of natural gas. Don't you think it would be better to have a domestic supply? It's better for the environment too.

Heck right now, Europe is still burning coal (and worse yet - lignite coal) for electricity. Natural gas would be a huge improvement on that.

Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time.

Your comment is wishful thinking and ignores the current reality of how Europe imports and uses energy.

But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#219

Post by toomuchtodo »

slashdev wrote: post #218
toomuchtodo wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be an inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration considering the deployment rates and cost decline curves of renewables and storage. Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily) Ember Energy: Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the first time in 2025 - https://ember-ener…

You're talking about electricity, so I assume your answer is directed to the natural gas fields at Groningen. The EU imports a lot of natural gas. Don't you think it would be better to have a domestic supply? It's better for the environment too. Heck right now, Europe is still burning coal (and worse yet - lignite coal) for electricity. Natural gas would be a huge improvement on that. Note that drilling for oil in th…

No, everything can move to electricity, China is doing it, Europe can too. You are free to your opinion, but the facts and evidence are clear. If you would like an hour of time with an expert from Ember Energy to explain this, happy to pay for that hour of time for you to update your priors and mental model on the topic of Europe's energy transition trajectory.

> Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time.

Europe's EV uptake will speed based on the price of oil increasing and remaining high for the foreseeable future.

> But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong.

The developing world is leapfrogging fossil fuels and going straight to solar, batteries, and EVs. What will expensive LNG do to this market? It will force them to renewables and electric mobility faster. Ethopia's uptake of EVs after they banned combustion vehicles is an example of this. Why did they ban combustion vehicles? Because they have no domestic fossil fuel supplies and the import cost was crushing them; their EVs are powered by domestic hydro electricity production.

Citations:

Surging Gas Prices Reignite EV Interest - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-... | https://archive.today/BkAfR - March 14th, 2026

Global EV sales hit 1.1 million – Europe surges while the US slides - https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-milli... | https://archive.today/nhIbF - March 12th, 2026

EVs Avoided the Use of 2.3M Barrels of Oil per Day in 2025 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 - March 2026

Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026

How we made it: will China be the first electrostate? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 - May 2025

Massive global growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match entire power capacity of major economies today, moving world closer to tripling goal - https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables... - October 9th, 2024

The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... - January 30th, 2024

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#220

Post by slashdev »

Scarblac wrote: post #209
slashdev wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Europe should resume drilling in the North Sea and Groningen if they have exploitable reserves there. Europe depends on energy imports and that won't change in our lifetimes (I'm in my early forties, so at least in my lifetime.) They should take advantage of whatever resources they have. I'm guessing you think otherwise? Why? Do you think the energy transition will be faster? What makes you think that?

Because the continued survival of civilization depends on leaving fossil fuel in the ground. If the transition isn't fast enough then we will have horrible, lethal shortages, but that's still better than the worst climate scenarios.

That may or may not be true. But it won't stay in the ground as long as there is money to be made by extracting and consuming it.

Right now all that's happening is the US is extracting that natural gas, and the middle east extracting that oil, and Europe is importing it. Which pollutes more and costs more. Just develop your domestic supplies.

I don't follow your logic.

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