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Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

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Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#171
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their land, labor, and material costs aren’t trivial. If thy were pulling a 10-20% margin before, how will increasing volume (which increases costs) make it up?

They reinvest that generous 10% to buy more tools and hire more talent to build 10x as many homes at 2%. Seems pretty straightforward to me

Taking on those liabilities is very risky when the next downturn happens and you're stuck with inventory.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#172
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developers not recouping their investment will discourage less housing in Austin in the future and it will become expensive again. A lot of our current housing shortages are from the build up in 2008 and an implosion of the entire industry (so that crafts people did not really exist for the next need for housing).

What evidence is there that developers won't break even or profit? The demand is clearly there, it's a seller's market.

Not so much any longer. The sales tap really turned off a while back and prices have been dropping a while here in Austin.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#173
post #160
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To be fair, parking structures always look and feel pretty distopian. What a lot of the new buildings in Austin are doing is putting an attached garage directly behind a 4 + 1 mixed use development - the street-facing facade is the apartments and shops, and the garage is directly behind (and usually attached) to the apartments. You basically never see them.

They put it in the middle usually. It’s literally called the “Texas Doughnut” — a 5 over 1 surround a parking garage.

Ha, today I learned.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#174
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in Menlo Park they're just flat surface parking lots, not even multi-story structures. The planned development is multi-story housing with parking underneath. To be fair, I am boycotting the (similar) underground garage over at Springline because they're clearly made only for people in Range Rovers or whatever. They have those AWFUL ticket machines, set too far back (to avoid getting hit) and too high to access…

Is the Bay Area really dealing with ticket machines? The global capital of technology? Just bill by plate or something.

The reasons why the Bay Area is the global capital of technology are absolutely totally unrelated to the quality of infrastructure or the policies of local government there.

It’s mainly due to the state of US technological advancement decades ago when the whole thing got started, the general US-level business-friendly environment, and the presence of an extremely prestigious (especially in science and tech fields) university nearby.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#175
post #118

Dumb question, many cities suffer from extremely high property (i.e. land) prices. I understand the NIMBY barrier. But I don't understand why it isn't more common to simply.. start a new city. Especially in countries like Australia where property prices are sky high and alternative places for setting up a new city are abundant. Maybe internet connectivity was previously a barrier, but now.. starlink. I put this quest…

You might enjoy the novel A Town Like Alice by Nevil Shute.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#176
Its wild how the solution to housing costs is really just:

Build more housing. Keep law and order.

No it doesn’t need to be “affordable”. Yes rent control is a terrible idea.

Just build more housing.

Note: that the US already has plenty of housing and housing costs basically go up in areas of low crime relative to economic opportunity. If you build housing, but allow crime to rise, you have wasted everybody’s time.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#177

I'll admit ignorance here, but I've been skeptical of the claim that new construction drives rents down. What I actually see is: a luxury apartment building goes up, surveys the market, and sets its rents 30% higher for the privilege of living in a new building with a gym for dogs or ball pit or whatever. Then the older buildings say, "Well, we can raise our rents 20% and still be the best deal in town," and so on. M…

Your scenario is simply describing a massive under-supply problem, and mis-attributing causality for price increases.

If the older buildings are able to raise prices 20% with no increase in vacancies after the new build, the new build not coming in would mean those older buildings rent would be bid up more than 20%.

The people moving in who could have afforded the 30% more expensive luxury units will just have to pick from the older units and outbid lower income people for spots in this low supply, growing city (under no other scenario could you crank up rent on aging stock 20% without losing to competing landlords).

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#178

I'll admit ignorance here, but I've been skeptical of the claim that new construction drives rents down. What I actually see is: a luxury apartment building goes up, surveys the market, and sets its rents 30% higher for the privilege of living in a new building with a gym for dogs or ball pit or whatever. Then the older buildings say, "Well, we can raise our rents 20% and still be the best deal in town," and so on. M…

In my neighborhood in NYC, I've also observed that rents increased after luxury apartments were built here. In fact my landlord cited the increased median rent in the neighborhood as a reason to raise my rent.

My understanding of the situation is that luxury apartments do indeed gentrify neighborhoods (i.e. they increase the local rent and drive displacement of locals that can't keep up with those rent increases).

However, across the entire city, it slightly eases rent pressure by providing additional housing supply.

So, like you mentioned, if you get enough housing across many neighborhoods, you can drive down rents. Otherwise, that luxury complex in your neighborhood might only be helping ease rent pressure in other neighborhoods.

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#179
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not clear: does Econ 201 inform us as to how demand and supply are not related to price?

Yes, you learn why supply + demand curves do not actually describe many markets

So, if instead of installing a bunch of apps, setting up search filters, and refreshing browser tabs on my phone ever 15-30 minutes, then the instant something meets my parameters I immediately leave work and, if possible, make a deposit on a new place, I open an app and find 5000 places meeting my requirements, meet them when I'm not working and on my time, and tell them I like a different one better so I'll hold off before making a decision, makes no difference on the price?

Re: Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents

#180
post #152
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's crazy that people nowadays seriously question basic market pressure being a thing

I'm with you, but many people still question this. Here's a recent pre-print paper that was in the news arguing that inequality, not lack of supply, is the real source of housing affordability: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/95trz_v1

The black pill about that story isn't that a (crappy) preprint exists, it's that it got coverage in the press and was viral on social sites.
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