The number 1 issue Ive experienced with poor programmers is a belief that theyre special snowflakes who can anticipate the future.
It's the same thing with programmers who believe in BDUF or disbelieve YAGNI - they design architectures for anticipated futures which do not materialize instead of evolving the architecture retrospectively in line with the future which did materialize.
I think it's a natural human foible. Gambling, for instance, probably wouldnt exist if humans' gut instincts about their ability to predict future defaulted to realistic.
This is why no matter how many brilliant programmers scream YAGNI, dont do BDUF and dont prematurely optimize there will always be some comment saying the equivalent of "akshually sometimes you should...", remembering that one time when they metaphorically rolled a double six and anticipated the necessary architecture correctly when it wasnt even necessary to do so.
These programmers are all hopped up on a different kind of roulette these days...