I've thought about this a lot in the past, and it seems like the strongest argument for our existence being a simulation. What are the odds of being born a human and not a bacteria, a fly, or, apparently, a nematode? What are the odds that I would be born into a wealthy country? What are the odds that I would be born into what appears to be the end of history -- the most prosperous species in the most prosperous time of Earth's 4 billion year history of life, where I can live comfortably, but technology has created multiple civilization-ending threats that will probably come into fruition shortly after I am gone (should I be so lucky)?
The only thing that gives me pause is that if this is a simulation, the beings that created it are evil for creating both a world so full of suffering and a simulation so detailed (from my own perspective) that we fully experience such suffering. For what purpose could simulations like this possibly serve, I wonder. Does it entertain such hypothetical higher beings, in the way that we create murder simulations to entertain ourselves? Or is it somehow informative, although we'd expect the simulation to be much lower resolution than the universe it's being run in? Maybe we're just in some random gambler or forecaster's model, which is not wholly accurate but with sufficient fidelity may gain a couple of percentage points in predictive power.
The building blocks of an organism, is cells, and an elephant has roughly 5 billion times the cell count than a nematode. So I think it is unfair to only count the single organisms.
I've thought about this a lot in the past, and it seems like the strongest argument for our existence being a simulation. What are the odds of being born a human and not a bacteria, a fly, or, apparently, a nematode? What are the odds that I would be born into a wealthy country? What are the odds that I would be born into what appears to be the end of history -- the most prosperous species in the most prosperous time…
> What are the odds of being born a human and not a bacteria, a fly, or, apparently, a nematode?
If you're having that thought and expressing it on the internet ... 100% certainty.
In a similar many worlds conjecture, with an infinite number of potential universes with an infinite combination of fundemental physical constants, what are the odds that I'm here in this, one of the only possible universes with a sweet spot of values that allow life?
I've thought about this a lot in the past, and it seems like the strongest argument for our existence being a simulation. What are the odds of being born a human and not a bacteria, a fly, or, apparently, a nematode? What are the odds that I would be born into a wealthy country? What are the odds that I would be born into what appears to be the end of history -- the most prosperous species in the most prosperous time…
> What are the odds of being born a human and not a bacteria, a fly, or, apparently, a nematode?
Well you probably have to be a human to ask yourself that so it seems fallacious to argue like that.
> What are the odds that I would be born into a wealthy country?
10% maybe?
> What are the odds that I would be born into what appears to be the end of history -- the most prosperous species in the most prosperous time of Earth's 4 billion year history of life, where I can live comfortably, but technology has created multiple civilization-ending threats that will probably come into fruition shortly after I am gone (should I be so lucky)?
Since the human population is at a peak currently, probably not that bad. From a quick google search it looks like only about 110 billion people ever existed and there are currently 8 billion people alive so the chance of being alive currently given you’re a random human is about 7%.
And also I don’t think human civilization will end in the foreseeable future. Climate change is going to lead to some changes but overall humans aren’t even close to going extinct.
I got 15 nematodes in a row which seems a lot even for an 80% chance. Update: so now I learned something about compounding as well as about nematodes. Prob is about 0.03, much more than I’d have guessed.
My first roll I got a Springtail (1%) then second a Beetle (15%) then nematodes came in and outlasted my patience. I wished this was just a table.
I've thought about this a lot in the past, and it seems like the strongest argument for our existence being a simulation. What are the odds of being born a human and not a bacteria, a fly, or, apparently, a nematode? What are the odds that I would be born into a wealthy country? What are the odds that I would be born into what appears to be the end of history -- the most prosperous species in the most prosperous time…
Your thinking is flawed. It seems to assume that you were pulled from a pool of souls and got assigned to an organism somewhere in time. That’s not the case. What makes you “you” is nothing but your brain cells.
This probability is drawing proportional to organism counts, instead of brain cell counts.
Would it not be more representative if the weighting included neuron counts?
In a sense I ascribe to the belief of such a lottery, except that we are all the same "I", we just alternatively wake up as physics evaluating the progress for this or that electron, proton etc in this or that rock or neuron and progressing the state indeterministically according to the rules of physics.
Our identity is a pragmatic illusion (just like the illusion that water is a continuus medium, is a pragmatic one, as it helps summarize the behavior of water).
Imagine an amnesiac elder in an elderly home, still knows the rules of chess, but can't form long term memories any more: its his turn, and he's playing black, there is a small notebook with his plans and strategies, jotted down during the earlier turns, he makes some notes and then a move.
The caretakers turn around the chess board, swap the black notebook with the white notebook and leave the amnesiac bewildered for a few minutes. Then he reads his earlier notes in the white notebook, deliberates his options and makes a move, with a white piece.
The caretakers turn the chess board around again.
This is physics, and the "player" is you, me, everyone, and we are physics.
The notebook is the state of your brain, and your move is indeterminate physics (with deterministic probabilities) evolving the state of the universe.
Does identity exist: yes! as a pragmatic summary, even natural selection latched onto this illusion out of necessity.
Weighting by neurons will be more representative, of universal experience in the earthly biosphere.
I got 15 nematodes in a row which seems a lot even for an 80% chance. Update: so now I learned something about compounding as well as about nematodes. Prob is about 0.03, much more than I’d have guessed.
My first roll I got a Springtail (1%) then second a Beetle (15%) then nematodes came in and outlasted my patience. I wished this was just a table.
It is if you just check the sources, heres the json:
```
[
{
"name": "Nematode",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 5e19,
"category": "Roundworm (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "There are roughly 57 billion nematodes for every human on Earth. They inhabit every known ecosystem, from ocean trenches to polar ice, and outnumber every other multicellular animal combined."
},
{
"name": "Soil Mite",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e18,
"category": "Arachnid (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "A single teaspoon of forest soil can contain hundreds of mites. They are the unsung engineers of our planet, recycling dead matter and forming the base of countless food webs."
},
{
"name": "Marine Copepod",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e18,
"category": "Crustacean (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "Copepods form the largest animal biomass on Earth. Their daily vertical migrations — traveling hundreds of meters to feed at night — are considered the largest migration on the planet."
},
{
"name": "Springtail",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 7e17,
"category": "Hexapod (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "Springtails can launch themselves 100× their own body length using a forked tail-spring. Despite being soil-dwellers, they are found on every continent, including Antarctica."
},
{
"name": "Beetle",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e19,
"category": "Insect (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "About 25% of all known animal species are beetles. When asked what he could infer about the Creator's mind, biologist J.B.S. Haldane replied: 'an inordinate fondness for beetles.'"
},
{
"name": "Ant",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 2e16,
"category": "Insect (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "If you weighed all the ants on Earth, they would rival the total weight of all humans. They farm, wage war, keep slaves, and build air-conditioned megacities underground."
},
{
"name": "Termite",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e15,
"category": "Insect (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "Termite mounds can last centuries and regulate their internal temperature within 1°C — a feat no human building has replicated without technology."
},
{
"name": "Krill",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 5e14,
"category": "Crustacean (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "Antarctic krill hold together the entire Southern Ocean food web. A single school can weigh over 2 million tonnes — visible from space as a reddish bloom on the ocean surface."
},
{
"name": "Mosquito",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e14,
"category": "Insect (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "Mosquitoes are the deadliest animals to humans in history. Only female mosquitoes bite — they need blood protein to develop their eggs. Males eat only nectar."
},
{
"name": "Aphid",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e14,
"category": "Insect (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "Aphids can reproduce asexually, giving live birth to daughters already pregnant with grandchildren — a phenomenon called telescoping generations."
},
{
"name": "Fruit Fly",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e13,
"category": "Insect (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "Fruit flies share about 75% of the genes that cause human diseases. More Nobel Prizes have been won using fruit flies as a research model than any other organism."
},
{
"name": "Honeybee",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 2e12,
"category": "Insect (Invertebrate)",
"fact": "A single honeybee will produce only 1/12 teaspoon of honey in its entire lifetime. Colonies make collective decisions by voting with waggle dances."
},
{
"name": "Anchovy",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 6e11,
"category": "Fish (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "The Peruvian anchovy fishery is historically the largest single-species fishery on Earth. Schools can be so dense they show up on radar as false landmasses."
},
{
"name": "House Mouse",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e11,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "House mice arrived on every inhabited continent by hitching rides on human ships. They can fit through a hole the size of a pencil eraser, and have been to space more than most humans."
},
{
"name": "Common Starling",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 5e10,
"category": "Bird (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Starling murmurations — flocks of millions moving in perfect fluid synchrony — have no leader. Each bird follows just seven nearest neighbors, producing one of nature's most breathtaking emergent phenomena."
},
{
"name": "Chicken",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 3.3e10,
"category": "Bird (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "There are more chickens on Earth than any other bird species — outnumbering humans 4 to 1. The bones of farmed chickens may become the defining fossil marker of the Anthropocene."
},
{
"name": "Brown Rat",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 7e9,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Rats laugh when tickled — emitting ultrasonic chirps inaudible to humans. They also demonstrate empathy, freeing trapped companions even when they gain no personal benefit."
},
{
"name": "Human",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 8.1e9,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Humans are the only animal known to cook food, write poetry, and wonder about their own existence. We are also the only species to have driven thousands of others to extinction."
},
{
"name": "Sheep",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1.2e9,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Sheep can recognize up to 50 individual sheep faces — and remember them for years. They even show signs of depression when separated from their flock companions."
},
{
"name": "Dog",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 9e8,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Dogs are the oldest domesticated animal, with a relationship to humans stretching back 15,000+ years. They are the only non-primate known to understand pointing as a communicative gesture."
},
{
"name": "Domestic Cat",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 6e8,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Cats are considered a major driver of bird and small mammal extinction worldwide. A domestic cat's hunting instinct cannot be turned off by a full belly — they hunt regardless of hunger."
},
{
"name": "Cattle",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e9,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Cattle account for roughly 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. They can form close friendships, and their heart rate measurably decreases when a companion is nearby."
},
{
"name": "Pig",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 7e8,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Pigs are among the most cognitively complex animals: they can play video games, recognize their reflection, and outperform dogs and chimpanzees in certain learning tasks."
},
{
"name": "Rabbit",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e9,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Rabbits cannot vomit. They re-ingest their own soft droppings directly from the anus — a process called cecotrophy — to extract nutrients on a second pass through the gut."
},
{
"name": "Common Pigeon",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 4e8,
"category": "Bird (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Pigeons can recognize themselves in mirrors, identify individual human faces from photographs, and have served as decorated war heroes in both World Wars."
},
{
"name": "African Elephant",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 4e5,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Elephants hold funerals, mourn their dead, and return to bones of family members years later. They communicate via infrasound rumbles that travel through the ground, felt through their feet."
},
{
"name": "Snow Leopard",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 4000,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Snow leopards cannot roar — their unique larynx only allows a haunting purr-like chuff. They are so elusive in the Himalayas that locals call them 'ghosts of the mountains.'"
},
{
"name": "Blue Whale",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1e4,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "The blue whale's heart is the size of a small car, and its heartbeat can be heard from two miles away. Its call at 188 decibels is the loudest sound made by any animal."
},
{
"name": "Giant Panda",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 1800,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "Giant pandas have a false thumb — an enlarged wrist bone that helps grip bamboo. They eat up to 38 kg of bamboo a day because their carnivore gut digests only 17% of it."
},
{
"name": "Amur Leopard",
"emoji": "",
"pop": 100,
"category": "Mammal (Vertebrate)",
"fact": "The Amur leopard is possibly the rarest wild cat on Earth. Fewer than 100 remain in the Russian Far East, yet they can run 37 mph and leap over 19 feet horizontally."
}
]
```