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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#931

Post by gepiti »

derf_ wrote: post #679
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

> Strong regulation and legal consequences could potentially fix this. There are regulations. E.g., in the US, 17 CFR § 40.11 prohibits contracts on "terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any State or Federal law" [0]. The problem is that those responsible for enforcing those regulations are currently uninterested in doing so [1]. [0] https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/40.1…

What happens if someone bets on a terrorist attack in an unlikely place and then puts the bomb himself? This can turn ugly very easily.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#932

Post by c-c-c-c-c »

varjag wrote: post #922
culi wrote: post #867

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Followed by the sentence "A cursory search of our writings and our website shows this to be false." Would you honestly genuinely describe this as "a thoroughly pro-Russian think tank"? Dishonesty

It is clear that the opinion it's pro-Russian is widespread enough they need to make advance disclaimers. You wanted "a single example backing up the claim", you got one - from the horse's mouth.

you have angered the russian bots, be careful.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#933

Post by tgv »

sentrysapper wrote: post #607
tgv wrote: post #577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the BS reply that always comes when (in particular) bitcoin is associated with crime: that it is traceable. Well, it hardly is. And for the average policeman/woman, even less so. And when the owner has taken some care, as you admit, practically impossible even for experts.

It's not BS though? That's what companies like Chainalysis professionally. This was covered in graphic detail as to how they caught a pedo ring in Andy Greenberg's book Tracers In The Dark.

Isn't it like claiming that breaking and entering is pointless, as you can always trace the perp through finger prints, unless they happen to wear gloves? Except in this case, most of the criminals operate from outside your jurisdiction as well.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#934

Post by kmacdough »

gepiti wrote: post #931
derf_ wrote: post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Strong regulation and legal consequences could potentially fix this. There are regulations. E.g., in the US, 17 CFR § 40.11 prohibits contracts on "terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any State or Federal law" [0]. The problem is that those responsible for enforcing those regulations are currently uninterested in doing so [1]. [0] https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/40.1…

What happens if someone bets on a terrorist attack in an unlikely place and then puts the bomb himself? This can turn ugly very easily.

Well that is a high enough level even the bet would probably be enforced. But the point is valid, this is a slippery slope and there's a reason these bets are illegal.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#935

Post by enoint »

LadyCailin wrote: post #907
Etheryte wrote: post #789

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insider trading is not about fairness, it's about theft. If you insider trade on the stock market then, in a crude simplification, you steal profits from the company you have a fiduciary duty to, or some extension of that. It has nothing to do with a level playing ground, every trading company out there is trying to find information others can't and then trade on it.

What? How do you figure that? If I happen to know that my company is about to report very bad quarterly numbers, so I sell all my stock, then it tanks, I’ve just screwed whoever bought the stock, that in the most cases, will be some random people. The company does not benefit or hurt from stock prices unless they are buying back or issuing more stock.

That’s how the criminal penalties are framed.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#936

Post by bpp »

andai wrote: post #543
sam0x17 wrote: post #459

I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…

>outcome shaping markets I heard something remarkable many years ago, that there are websites on the dark web where you can bet on which day someone is going to die. In other words you can pay to have them assassinated in a very indirect way. It's like kickstarter, for assassinations. When enough funds are raised, a willing volunteer simply places a bet on the day when they plan to carry out the deed. So they win the…

If I put a tontine on the blockchain does that make it legal?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#937

Post by surgical_fire »

kbrkbr wrote: post #930
surgical_fire wrote: post #913

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ban? I don't understand why Many things that people enjoy are banned because it causes harm to other individuals or to society as a whole. Not a difficult concept to understand.

That's why I was asking for a rationale. The devil is in the details. Otherwise motorcycling will be next, alcohol, excessive gaming, etc. etc.

Motorcycling does not cause immediate harm to society or to the individual, and is a regulated activity anyway.

Alcohol and tobacco are regulated too. Perhaps less than it should, in no small part for cultural reasons. I say this as someone that enjoys the occasional whiskey and smoking a pipe.

I am unaware of evidence of gaming causing harm to society. Maybe it exists. I can't comment on it.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#938

Post by margalabargala »

croes wrote: post #928
margalabargala wrote: post #624

As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…

I think there is a fundamental difference between betting on a sports event and on a war.

What would that difference be?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#939

Post by emporas »

LeifCarrotson wrote: post #726
geor9e wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely I am misreading what you mean here. But your comment very much reads like you think "Iran strikes Israel on March 10" at 25% odds is what in fact caused Iran to strike Israel on March 10. I'll search the space of other interpretations in the mean time, but if you could help me out here and clarify…

I was confused as well: After further consideration, I realized that Polymarket only resolves on actual event outcomes insofar as mainstream journalism accurately and credibly reports on those events and their resolution criteria rely on those reports. When it's easier or more reliable to influence reporting around outcomes than the outcomes themselves, bettors will seek to influence the behavior of reporters rather…

That's superb. A very good literature story could be written based on that.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#940

Post by sam0x17 »

arduanika wrote: post #846
janalsncm wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That wouldn’t solve the issue in the article. The gamblers threatening the journalist know how much money they individually gambled on an outcome, which means they know how much they stand to lose if they cannot pressure a source to alter reporting in their favor.

Yeah. It seems like one of these two things is true: Case 1. sam0x17 has read TFA carefully and he is proposing, without spelling it out very well, that the oracle should point at anonymous deciders instead of at vetted outlets with well-known reporters. This is the charitable case, but it seems unlikely, and it carries its own problems. or Case 2. sam0x17 goes through his life wielding a giant hammer called "privacy…

You didn't even read my message. At no point do I say the oracle target should be private, that would be ridiculous. Public oracle, private markets on both sides of the issue, until the issue is considered closed, at which point we get to decrypt and find out who betted yes and who betted no. Liquidity would still be public, so you know how much money, but you get no intelligence signal, so world events don't get shaped by the market.
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