661–670 of 1001 posts
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We could gamble on when Polymarket's operators die.
Or whether the company will fail or have a bad IPO.
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Adam Smith's libertine didn't allow the concept of rent-seeking entities. It sure as well wouldn't allow polymarket gamblers "As soon as the land of any country has all become private property, the landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed, and demand a rent even for its natural produce." "[the landlord leaves the worker] with the smallest share with which the tenant can content himself witho…
I can understand how you would call inside traders rent seekers. I don't understand the connection for some guy betting a hundred bucks. What's "parasitic" about the median person on the site? (Also landlords only gain all the surplus when the entire system is super biased. It's not inherent to the concept of landlording. What's the alternative to having landlords anyway?)
> What's "parasitic" about the median person on the site?
The median is kinda skewed to be honest. The median you and I think is very few percentage points in my opinion.
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Adam Smith actually would be against stuff like this. He gets misrepresented.
It really doesn't matter here, in specific, if he is misrepresented. He came up with the "invisible hand" concept and he didn't consider its shadow/consequences. He shouldn't be personally faulted for it, he was just one man sharing his thinking a long time ago. Living people are to blame for not correcting for these shortcomings enough. I learned that it would have been best to have just said laissez-faire capitalis…
Smith wrote about the political economy. He absolutely considered the balance between public and market interests. Most people talking about The Wealth of Nations have never read it.
I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…
Why would anybody make a bet if they don't know the odds or payout?
Here's what a spokesperson for Polymarket said: "Polymarket condemns the harassment and threats directed at Emanuel Fabian, or anyone else for that matter. This behavior violates our terms of service and has no place on our platform or anywhere else. Prediction markets depend on the integrity of independent reporting. Attempts to pressure journalists to alter their reporting undermine that integrity and undermine the…
Do we have evidence for the types who indulge in death threats concentrating around certain bet genres?
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I can understand how you would call inside traders rent seekers. I don't understand the connection for some guy betting a hundred bucks. What's "parasitic" about the median person on the site? (Also landlords only gain all the surplus when the entire system is super biased. It's not inherent to the concept of landlording. What's the alternative to having landlords anyway?)
I feel like my point more than anything (in the scope of this discussion) is that, relevant to the discussion (Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story) > What's "parasitic" about the median person on the site? The median is kinda skewed to be honest. The median you and I think is very few percentage points in my opinion.
Second most malicious quintile?
I'm avoiding "average" because one bad actor will spoil the average. But if you exclude the worst ten percent, what's wrong with everyone else?
The people in the article are in that worst bunch. But you critiqued basically everyone on the site.
Also did you finish your first sentence?
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The reasons are neither flippant or arbitrary.
What is the law being broken? "Lack of regulation clarity on your part does not constitute a crime on mine". Why is that not a valid defence?
“In most jurisdictions, death threats are a serious type of criminal offence” [1].
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ISW confirmed unauthorised edits were made, and fired a staffer over it. Not sure why you feel the need to comment this. Classic lowbrow dismissal https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4726248
Your link points to a 2012 discussion of "Why an Airline That Travelers Love Is Failing". Not super convincing.
Why not look at the primary source evidence yourself?
> It has come to ISW’s attention that an unauthorized and unapproved edit to the interactive map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was made on the night of November 15-16 EST
https://understandingwar.org/newsroom/statement-on-isw-mappi...
https://polymarket.com/event/arch-will-russia-capture-myrnoh...
> Settled as: Proposal: Yes
> This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya located in Myrnohrad by November 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641...) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
https://oracle.uma.xyz/settled?project=Polymarket&transactio...
...which was shut down in 2003 "after multiple US senators condemned it as an assassination and terrorism market".