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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#641

Post by culi »

varjag wrote: post #631
culi wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quincy Institute is not tied to Russia and condemns the invasion

You're welcome to find a piece of their writing where they unequivocally support Ukraine without ifs, buts, and NATO-didits.

In their own words:

> We categorically condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and support U.S. assistance for Ukraine’s self-defense.

https://quincyinst.org/2022/07/12/quincy-institutes-position...

Also, having nuance and historical context does not mean they are "pro-Russia". We should be celebrating institutions that challenge propaganda narratives with context not hunting down anyone that doesn't fall in line with a narrative that requires you to believe history started last year

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#642

Post by culi »

loeg wrote: post #453
culi wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's counterfactual. The think tank has nothing to do with Russia and official denounces the invasion and upholds Ukraine's territorial rights. They have simply written critically about the role NATO has played in making this conflict inevitable and the history of NATO sabotage of peace negotiations.

> The think tank has nothing to do with Russia and official denounces the invasion and upholds Ukraine's territorial rights. GP did not claim it was associated with Russia or that it had made specific claims about the invasion. > They have simply written critically about the role NATO has played in making this conflict inevitable and the history of NATO sabotage of peace negotiations. That seems aligned with the orig…

In their own words

> We categorically condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and support U.S. assistance for Ukraine’s self-defense.

How is that possibly aligned with GP's blatant lies?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#643

Post by blurbleblurble »

irishcoffee wrote: post #627
kqr wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I propose odds based on US insurance life tables for people of their age and gender, which side of the bet would you like to take?

The over. Rich people live longer.

Even when there's a polymarket bet on their heads?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#644

Post by dlenski »

gus_massa wrote: post #605
keeda wrote: post #432

Conspiracy theory: the missile hit an unpopulated area. Would it have been possible for someone in charge of intercepting incoming missiles to have been in on this bet? I know these things are automated, because human control would be too slow... but I wonder if there's an angle here. Won't be the first time someone on the inside made money on classified Israeli plans: https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-indicted-for-u…

My unsupported non-conspiracy opinion: A) They notice that it would land in the middle of nowhere and decided to not destroy it. It's better keep the interceptors for one that is going to hit an important target. B) They partially intercepted it, perhaps only broke the motor or a fin, but the explosive head was intact. So instead of going to an important target, it crashed and exploded in the middle of nowhere.

(A) is extremely plausible. It is well-known that Iron Dome specifically avoided targeting rockets for interception when they not going to land in areas with people or infrastructure.

The main reason for this is because the interceptors are very scarce and costly.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#645

Post by Dylan16807 »

waffletower wrote: post #588
scoofy wrote: post #575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, it's not the point your making, but Adam Smith was not a laissez-faire capitalist. If you want to do the "capitalism bad" thing, I would suggest learning a bit of history, or at least understand that the " laissez-faire " in laissez-faire capitalism is a political ideology, not an economic ideology. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/11/the-gu... More to your point... I don't think economic theo…

Pendantry -- unhelpful and qualitative particularly when we largely agree -- as you clearly reveal in your 2nd paragraph.

Clearing up the incorrect connections you made is helpful.

Someone largely agreeing doesn't mean they should ignore mistakes.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#647

Post by culi »

varjag wrote: post #134
defly wrote: post #21

FYI: In November, an ISW Analyst Manipulated the Situation in Myrnohrad to Rig Map Bets https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-ma...

(as reported by Quincy Institute, a thoroughly pro-Russian think tank)

Please give me a single example backing up the claim that Quincy Institute is "a thoroughly pro-Russian think tank"

On their page "Quincy Institute’s Position on Russia-Ukraine" they say at the very beginning:

> We categorically condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and support U.S. assistance for Ukraine’s self-defense.

https://quincyinst.org/2022/07/12/quincy-institutes-position...

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#648

Post by casey2 »

scoofy wrote: post #575
waffletower wrote: post #552

[flagged]

Look, it's not the point your making, but Adam Smith was not a laissez-faire capitalist. If you want to do the "capitalism bad" thing, I would suggest learning a bit of history, or at least understand that the " laissez-faire " in laissez-faire capitalism is a political ideology, not an economic ideology. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/11/the-gu... More to your point... I don't think economic theo…

Name one (1) human activity in your opinion that isn't bad for society

People taking care of cats have done large damage to bird populations and many people are infected with pathogens carried by cats. How many people are killed by dogs each year? Should we ban caring for animals too? There are no 0 harm activities.

Reasonably splitting activities up into subcategories and regulating those makes way more sense. Your $100 attitude is just a shitty, less enforceable and more harmful way to regulate it. Calling the behavior of a system "shameful" is a total copout. You know what else creates negative externalities? (besides everything) DEBT! Why not ban debt, besides a token $100, I'm sure states will function just fine!

Do you have a religion that works on systems/corporations/states? If so I'd love to see it, cause the past 2000 years has been dogshit failure after pathetic failure

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#649

Post by JohnMakin »

danny_codes wrote: post #540
JohnMakin wrote: post #458

This is a major example why we can't have these things, unfortunately. It sucks because they can be powerful tools, but you're never going to be able to fully police this behavior as one of these platforms.

Gambling has a heavy association with criminality. By allowing open gambling we must also accept the externalities. Or we could, you know, not legalize gambling.

I do not think it is so clear cut as legalize/not legalize. Current legislation often doesn't even consider this gambling - however, even if you took the viewpoint that making it illegal helps, you then have to accept the externalities that arise - crime rings will develop that offer the services, and now their users are criminals and completely vulnerable to any amount of bad/malicious practices there.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#650

Post by thayne »

eloisant wrote: post #520
thayne wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is the most Degenerate form of gambling out there. I don't think so. At least you have a 50% chance of winning. Unlike say a lottery or a slot machine.

It's not the chance of winning that matters, it's the mean expected value. If you have a 50% chance of losing $2 or gaining $1, you have a negative expected value and that's bad. If you have a 10% chance of gaining 100$ and 90% chance of losing $1, that's an expected value of $9 and it's a great deal.

Yes that is bad, but it isn't as bad as the expected value of a Powerball lottery ticket.

I didn't say it isn't bad, just that it isn't the worst.

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