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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#561

Post by squidbeak »

axus wrote: post #258
xvector wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket's founder is Shayne Coplan, 27-year old "youngest self-made billionaire" (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) A sane system would just throw him in jail until his illegal betting market implements KYC.

When power is concentrated to the government, the corruption is concentrated with it. Incarceration and the end of privacy don't restore the victims. A consumer protection bureau could bring a civil suit against Polymarket to pay the journalist.

> When power is concentrated to the government, the corruption is concentrated with it.

This is a hackneyed neoliberal fundamentalist myth.

If power is concentrated anywhere, it should only ever be in government - where it's answerable to the public electorally.

Governments become corrupt when they are weak, and turn to serving private interests rather than the public they represent.

Corruption in general is far more prolific and fruitful where government is weak (the neoliberal ideal) - which is one of the reasons corrupt private actors look to weaken government - for instance by undermining public trust in it or lobbying for its parasitization by private entities. Or by stuffing their acolytes minds with foolish neoliberal fundamentalist myths.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#562

Post by asdff »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #553

Polymarkets should be banned altogether or as highly regulated as casinos.

Wait until you find out the most profitable casinos are on reservation land not subject to state gaming regulation. Polymarket might consider a similar play.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#563

Post by bigyabai »

yonixw wrote: post #557
bigyabai wrote: post #528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Another "banger" comment that shows you did not read your sources links, here is one from the the wiki (Israeli Military Censor): https://www.academia.edu/10481823/The_Israeli_paradox_The_mi... Maybe your third comment will finally succeed...

Both researchers in that paper are Israeli residents. Do you have an independent report that corroborates their findings?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#564

Post by slashdev »

waffletower wrote: post #552

[flagged]

There are lots of bets on Polymarket about when certain politicians cease to be the leader of the country. Trump, Netanyahu, Putin, Mojtaba Khamenei, Zelensky, etc. If they die, those markets are resolved in a predictable way. Death pools already exist, and it's a matter of time before we see an assassination attempt motivated by it.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#566

Post by jacquesm »

andai wrote: post #543
sam0x17 wrote: post #459

I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…

>outcome shaping markets I heard something remarkable many years ago, that there are websites on the dark web where you can bet on which day someone is going to die. In other words you can pay to have them assassinated in a very indirect way. It's like kickstarter, for assassinations. When enough funds are raised, a willing volunteer simply places a bet on the day when they plan to carry out the deed. So they win the…

You are describing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#567

Post by caminante »

Terr_ wrote: post #521
caminante wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair point. I'd trim the bit about Polymarket to get under the cap. > Gamblers [...] are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story You'll lose a little topical/karma sizzle (with no "Polymarket" keyword), but it's higher fidelity.

> I'd trim the bit about Polymarket to Heck no, that's removing the important part of the news! Specifically, that a new kind of unregulated anonymous bet-making is leading to new kind of violence against journalists. In contrast, the piece isn't really about Iran, or about Missiles, although those underscore the gravity or perversion of what's going on. _____________ Such a cut isn't necessary either, compare the or…

even better headline golf!

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#568

Post by tsimionescu »

xvector wrote: post #406
axus wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When power is concentrated to the government, the corruption is concentrated with it. Incarceration and the end of privacy don't restore the victims. A consumer protection bureau could bring a civil suit against Polymarket to pay the journalist.

A lawsuit would just be the "cost of doing business" for Polymarket. Until there is no skin in the game, there will be no change or accountability. If CISOs can be held criminally liable for data breaches, the rest of C-suite can be held criminally liable for their own decisions as well. In this case, the guy knowingly operates a betting market that illegally does not require KYC.

On the other hand, what often happens with high level corruption cases in my country is that people go to jail for a few years, but none or next to none of the money is ever recovered. So quite a few crooked politicians and business man just accept prison as nothing more than an unpleasant bump on the way to getting extremely rich, and roll with it. So you actually need a combination of both money and personal fault for really fixing some of this.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#569

Post by zone411 »

creatonez wrote: post #435
red_admiral wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've certainly turned out different than Scott Alexander predicted, once the markets were opened up to people who are not in the wider rationalist community. Not foreseeing the amount of sports betting that would take place, is kind of a failure of rationality in the first place, and I say this as someone who absolutely respects the community in general.

You should have lost your respect for the "rationalist" "community" a long time ago. They are aggressively wrong about everything, and most of them are eugenicists.

Rationalists were right about everything that mattered: crypto, AI, COVID... HN commentators, by contrast, were wrong about everything that mattered.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#570

Post by bluGill »

andai wrote: post #543
sam0x17 wrote: post #459

I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…

>outcome shaping markets I heard something remarkable many years ago, that there are websites on the dark web where you can bet on which day someone is going to die. In other words you can pay to have them assassinated in a very indirect way. It's like kickstarter, for assassinations. When enough funds are raised, a willing volunteer simply places a bet on the day when they plan to carry out the deed. So they win the…

Kickstarter exists. The real problem is most things cost more than the average person should dare risk. Some widget today is worth more than the same tommorow. Most people should not back your eink laptop even though if it existed they would pay more for it.
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