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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#551

Post by wizzwizz4 »

gzread wrote: post #489
wizzwizz4 wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were right about Bitcoin getting big (though I'm not aware of anyone putting their money where their mouth was), and they were a decent source of information leading up to the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic (which probably saved a handful of lives). Just because they're almost always aggressively wrong, that doesn't mean they're aggressively wrong about everything .

It does mean you probably shouldn't listen to them, because the expected value of listening to them is negative.

It means I shouldn't listen to them in general. The LessWrongers are mainly wrong about things they think they understand: when they aren't overconfident, their improvisational skills tend to be decent. They were an excellent source of information about COVID-19, but they're a terrible source of information in the areas where they think they have expertise.

When there's a crisis, it's still worth checking in to see what the LessWrongers are saying about it, because it might be very useful, and it's pretty easy to tell: you just check whether it looks like they're doing science, or Rationalism™®, and only investigate further in the rare cases where it's the former.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#555

Post by sporkland »

sam0x17 wrote: post #459

I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…

I assume a lot of people don't know the fundamental odds of something happening but have a vague sense on if Mr. Market has gone bananas or not.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#556

Post by noitpmeder »

loeg wrote: post #454
fer wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket doesn't operate in the US. https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock

Polymarket is headquartered in NYC; it's a US company; it has many US customers, and it knows that, even if it did a wink-wink dance "disallowing" that prior to 2024. Since then, it has explicitly expanded into the US market[1]. It is unambiguously subject to US regulations (if we had a regulator who chose to enforce those regulations). [1]: "Following the end of the investigations, Polymarket announced the acquisiti…

As I understand it they operate as two separate entities -- polymarket US and polymarket INTL.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#557

Post by yonixw »

bigyabai wrote: post #528
yonixw wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason no one responds to this list is because it's just one big gish gallop It's enough to see that you brought a link to the Israeli Military Censor to hint at a conspiracy, to understand who you're dealing with. But even if you go into the list, you'll see at the top that those who were shot were in the middle of the battle, where Israeli forces were surprised, to the point of massacre alongside civilians. And…

[flagged]

Another "banger" comment that shows you did not read your sources links, here is one from the the wiki (Israeli Military Censor):

https://www.academia.edu/10481823/The_Israeli_paradox_The_mi...

Maybe your third comment will finally succeed...

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#558

Post by asdff »

abracadaniel wrote: post #501
ntonozzi wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps because he is a journalist whose job is to report reality, not avoid threats?

Until they start trying the carrot instead of the stick. Then it becomes a bidding war to determine the "reality"

Always is. 'Reality' is a subjective accounting.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#559

Post by venusenvy47 »

geor9e wrote: post #473
sam0x17 wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not even talking about the specific situation. The problem with prediction markets that has been talked about for months is the predictions themselves are being used as an indicator that "thing will happen" and eventually there is so much liquidity on certain markets that the market determines the outcome not the other way around

Do you have an example of polymarket betters changing the outcome of an event?

How can we possibly find an example, if the names of the betters aren't public? There are public bets on activities from the IS government that can easily be used by people that control the outcome.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwz8051y0lo

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#560

Post by charcircuit »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #545
charcircuit wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Yeah, but how do you find the person making the threats? Subpoena Meta for all of the IPs of the account. Subpoena the ISPs for data who was using the IP. Bring in the likely people who were sending the message for questioning.

And when the people sending the messages turn out to be in a different country?

Then work with local law enforcement.
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