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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#441

Post by ModernMech »

red_admiral wrote: post #388
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

They've certainly turned out different than Scott Alexander predicted, once the markets were opened up to people who are not in the wider rationalist community. Not foreseeing the amount of sports betting that would take place, is kind of a failure of rationality in the first place, and I say this as someone who absolutely respects the community in general.

The failure of the rationalist community is they mistook rationalization for rationality.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#444

Post by [deleted] »

philwelch wrote: post #421
epolanski wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no evidence that people betting on whether Iran will strike Israel on March 15th has any benefit. Who would be the beneficiary of that? Are you gonna tell me residents in Tel Aviv will be able to hedge their chances of surviving tomorrow? Nor there's evidence that providing information about the fact that US will strike Venezuela does it either. What value any of that has? None, especially considering the pe…

> Are you gonna tell me residents in Tel Aviv will be able to hedge their chances of surviving tomorrow? Yes, of course! If you had some advance warning your home town was likely to be struck with missiles soon, are you seriously saying you can't think of a single thing you could do to prepare? I would, at a minimum, make sure I was stocked up on first aid supplies, water, and food that I could eat without needing po…

[deleted]

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#445

Post by emsign »

creatonez wrote: post #435
red_admiral wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've certainly turned out different than Scott Alexander predicted, once the markets were opened up to people who are not in the wider rationalist community. Not foreseeing the amount of sports betting that would take place, is kind of a failure of rationality in the first place, and I say this as someone who absolutely respects the community in general.

You should have lost your respect for the "rationalist" "community" a long time ago. They are aggressively wrong about everything, and most of them are eugenicists.

They WANT to think in absolutes which is a red flag in a person.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#446

Post by unstyledcontent »

keeda wrote: post #432

Conspiracy theory: the missile hit an unpopulated area. Would it have been possible for someone in charge of intercepting incoming missiles to have been in on this bet? I know these things are automated, because human control would be too slow... but I wonder if there's an angle here. Won't be the first time someone on the inside made money on classified Israeli plans: https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-indicted-for-u…

I don't know the case of this particular situation, but its certainly plausible that people will make decisions based on trying to secure a certain bet outcome. The prediction markets are clearly not a passive presence...

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#447

Post by ACCount37 »

fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

Cool it with the moral outrage. Even if I did believe that prediction markets are bad, "easily the worst things to grace the internet by far" is such a ridiculous hyperbole that it strains any belief.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#449

Post by unmole »

creatonez wrote: post #435
red_admiral wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've certainly turned out different than Scott Alexander predicted, once the markets were opened up to people who are not in the wider rationalist community. Not foreseeing the amount of sports betting that would take place, is kind of a failure of rationality in the first place, and I say this as someone who absolutely respects the community in general.

You should have lost your respect for the "rationalist" "community" a long time ago. They are aggressively wrong about everything, and most of them are eugenicists.

> most of them are eugenicists.

[citation needed]

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#450

Post by matwood »

xhkkffbf wrote: post #357
Retric wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Odds of winning are rather meaningless for negative sum games, you’re going to lose anyway. While I find most forms of gambling rather boring, if you like the experience it’s little different than spending 50$ at an arcade. My game of choice is the big state lottery and it’s simply for the fun mental space of the possibility of winning, actually checking your ticket is kind of depressing because the odds are so low.…

I have one friend who likes to gamble. I've tried the old math argument with him and he dismisses it out-of-hand. He says that, yes, he knows it's a negative sum game but sometimes he wins and that makes it worth it. Then he says, "You spend money on a symphony or an art museum or an expensive restaurant, right? Those are guaranteed to leave you a little bit poorer at the end of the night. Same thing as gambling, but…

Gambling can be entertainment, and as long as it's viewed as consumption it's fine IMO. I enjoy playing craps whenever I'm in a casino, and have great memories with friends playing the ups and downs of the table.
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