Why is everyone assuming at face value that the threats are actually coming from gamblers, and not from the Israeli government trying to downplay the domestic impact of the war?
Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#342So Polymarket would settle the bet based on reporting from a single source? That seems to be very open to manipulation. In fact, for something as inconsequential as this, I'd just bet heavily myself if I were the reporter.
If you can keep the public misinformed for long enough, you can gradually sell off your position instead of losing the whole bet.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#343Earlier quoted context omitted.
Friend of a friend does announcing online. Like, you pay him a little ( So, he got a gig to announce the opening of loot boxes at some show. I think it was Fortnite loot boxes. I guess it gives you the total value of the loot box spree you opened. So, 2 people buy a bunch of loot boxes, then open them up, then whoever has the higher value wins and takes both of the people's total haul. Sounds like a strange thing to…
How is that different from roulette?
The regulation behind who can operate such establishments legally and who can participate, etc.?
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#344Earlier quoted context omitted.
There exists a sensible way to handle this. It is to require at least three independent news outlet reports of an event (as defined in the bet). A related issue is that war news is heavily censored in Israel; it's difficult for news outlets to report it.
Or y'know, ban this betting activity to begin with.
It's really hard I think. I mean if we assume sports betting is never going away (Outside of the US at least, sports betting is barely controversial and is basically now, unfortunately the oxygen of a lot of the whole sports industry).
A lot of the large sports betting orgs (Unibet, Bet365, Ladbrokes, etc) allow betting on at least some contests that aren't sports. Like elections, Eurovision song contests and so on. So it becomes difficult to draw a line between the things that are legal to bet on, and those that aren't.
And as we know, even if two things are clearly on either side of what should be legal but you can't make a good distinction of what makes one of them illegal, it tends to be the case that both remain legal.
I think the easier short term fix for this is to have KYC laws and actually enforce them.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#345Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel like America is re-learning why gambling was so widely outlawed. It just ruins everything it touches. At least casinos are mostly contained. I'm tired of seeing gambling ads on every sport and hearing the news talk about prediction markets. Not to mention, they all prey on people. When I was younger, I worked in a gas station, and people would come in regularly and drop everything they had on scratch-offs. And…
Many people just think certain things in history were outlawed because of 'stupid religious people'. Most of the time there's genuine reasons for banning things even if they weren't perfect or brought other harms with them. Something like usury was banned in Islam, Christianity and Judaism, and it wasn't because people prior to 1900 were imbeciles, these things can cause immense instability.
There is a clear difference between betting on a poker game in a casino is very different than betting on if a missile will kill civilians.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#346The gambling market is really bringing out the worst of us.
Day trading too, and day trading led us down this path. Everyone is a gambler now. All morals are out the window. On a side note, I find it incredible crypto trading/day trading/meme stock trading etc is not recognised as a bigger societal problem. It is 100% gambling and has the same negative externalities associated with it. But none of the tools gambling companies need to abide by (blocklists, warnings, limits, et…
I do not know about daytrading, but trading in the long term works, if you have a (technical/IT) system.
Regarding meme stocks: I do not see how this should work compared to the "real market", as on the real market you have clear signals when it is useful to enter a position (e.g. institutional attention), but on the meme "stock" market lacking those features it is much much harder to make any money - unfortunately, a lot of young people are trying their fortuna
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#347Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.
Moral degradation? Buddy think about how much money can be made here. Eye on the ball. Try to think about what's truly important in life: making money by _monetizing every difference of opinion_.
https://gizmodo.com/kalshi-ceo-says-he-wants-to-monetize-any...
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#348Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.
You will no doubt find some rational sounding arguments in favor of prediction markets here. Lots of useless and harmful things are fascinating. The math behind cryptocurrency, and things like the difference between proof of work and proof of stake are fascinating. But that doesn't make cryptocurrencies good. The genetics of tulip bulbs must be fascinating too.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#349Earlier quoted context omitted.
Friend of a friend does announcing online. Like, you pay him a little ( So, he got a gig to announce the opening of loot boxes at some show. I think it was Fortnite loot boxes. I guess it gives you the total value of the loot box spree you opened. So, 2 people buy a bunch of loot boxes, then open them up, then whoever has the higher value wins and takes both of the people's total haul. Sounds like a strange thing to…
How is that different from roulette?
Roulette uses a physical process and is not compromised.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#350An additional complication is that both Iran and Israel are engaging in heavy censorship of news articles, obstensively to prevent the opposing side from getting intelligence/feedback on their missile strikes/other activities, but it is also definitely to control the narrative: https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/ This could definitely affect key polymarket bets in the near term. I expect over the…
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