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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#111
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm assuming you've never read a news article before, because news articles routinely contain reported speech without having to provide extra evidence of that speech having taken place.

You're being dismissive and aggressive while dodging the questions. I routinely read the news, and I've been taught in school that critical reading involves doubting and focusing on facts, sources and proofs. No sources and verifiable proofs? No facts. Which is why the journalist put emphasis on his sources behind the missile attack: he knows how much sources and proofs are important. If you can fake screenshots, why…

Narrowly (skipping the question of whether this journalist should have included copies of evidence), GP is right: most journalists with verified source material quote it/assert what it contains, rather than linking or copying it verbatim. That’s how serious journalism has always worked. The reputation of a newsroom is understood to back up a reporter’s assertion about their source.

Whether or not it should work that way is a separate question. But claiming that raw sources not being included is cause for suspicion is incorrect.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#112
post #56
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but how do you find the person making the threats? Polymarket accounts are more-or-less just a crypto address. Whatsapp accounts are somewhat easier to link to a real identity, but still not hard to at least obscure a bit. The arm of the law struggles to reach across borders, and on the internet, it's quite plausible all those involved are in different jurisdictions.

Polymarket's founder is Shayne Coplan, 27-year old "youngest self-made billionaire" (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) A sane system would just throw him in jail until his illegal betting market implements KYC.

Putting aside this is sort of a knee-jerk reaction, if this was actually implemented you’d just see the role of the CEO change to basically be a highly-paid fall-guy. People in those positions today would vacate them for quieter roles behind the scenes, and corporations would put greater effort forth to hide their decision making processes. I don’t think it would be a better system.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#113
post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

It can look bad, but this is just an aspect of human behavior en masse that we don’t normally get to see. A long time ago there was an incident on a military base. A man had gotten up on a building to commit suicide, and while the officers tried to convince him not to jump, the drafted soldiers gathered underneath and started chanting “jump, jump” because of a rule that said witnessing the suicide of a fellow soldier…

>It can look bad, but this is just an aspect of human behavior

Why "can look", "but", "just"?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not even close to being the worst thing in my opinion. There are people driven into suicide by blackmailing them over social media and people selling murder for hire on the Darknet. Some death threats are pretty harmless compared to that, assuming that nothing actually happens (which is pretty likely in my opinion).

As someone who has received death threats, I can tell you, the comfort from the fact that they're usually not acted on, while real, is not huge.

I am sorry for that and I can see that it’s bad, but the internet just has a lot of things that are even worse.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#115
post #67

So, just to point it out: people don't get violent and criminal magically because they made a bet. They get violent and criminal to backstop a bet they can't cover . The story here isn't that horrible criminals are using Polymarket. It's that Polymarket bettors are overleveraged, and at the margin some of them turn to crime to avoid losing their shirts. We've all been looking around for the trigger for the market-cra…

This argument is sophistry, the nature of gambling is that gamblers over-leverage themselves compulsively.

So... no, it's not? You're saying everyone who makes a bet on anything is doing so compulsively? Literally everyone has bet on something. The absolutely overwhelming majority of "bets" placed (via whatever definition you want to give them) are basically benign and don't reflect mental illness.

But even so, you're missing my point: even compulsive gamblers don't as a general rule resort to criminal extortion to cover their losses. The interpretation here isn't about the psychology of the criminals, that's sort of speciously true.

It's that the fact that "regular bettors" become "criminals", and are doing so at scale, is a proxy measurement for the amount of leverage in the system.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#117
post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

It’s not even close to being the worst thing in my opinion. There are people driven into suicide by blackmailing them over social media and people selling murder for hire on the Darknet. Some death threats are pretty harmless compared to that, assuming that nothing actually happens (which is pretty likely in my opinion).

Yeah CSAM is worse.

But I think we can all agree there are a lot of negative effects of the new world where online gaming is without limits and government intervention is needed to some extent.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#118
post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

Absolutely horrifying.

Today they are bribing journalists to report on a bomb.

Tomorrow they will be bribing armies to bomb.

This needs to be banned.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#119
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Illegal or not, trying to ban it won't work. You'll just push it underground and it will get even worse. The cat is out of the bag.

Defeatist nonsense, and wrong. The US was regulating this until Trump. A friendly regulatory environment is the only way paying out these bets at scale is possible. "Pushing it underground" discourages the majority of bettors from using it, and that is a good thing.

>"Pushing it underground" discourages the majority of bettors from using it, and that is a good thing.

But don't you think that will be the "good" majority? And the "bad" minority will continue using the underground version?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#120
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the idea behind a prediction market is pretty interesting, especially from an economics dataset point-of-view. And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?" But we're in an era of less and less responsible government oversight, so the whole thing naturally gets ruined if there's no guardrails to prevent peoeple without souls or…

The insiders ruin a market like this. Unlike in sports/stocks there are no rules / punishment for insider trading.

Prediction markets as a useful tool are predicated on insider information. The punters without edge are the bait incentivizing the insiders.

And in the US prediction markets are regulated like commodities which have much more lax insider rules, because again, insider trading is the point.

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