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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#61

Post by tasuki »

colesantiago wrote: post #15
seydor wrote: post #5

Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency

AI is 1000%+ far worse to be fair. Cryptocurrency (although I hate it) you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. With AI, you're participating whether you like it or not. Layoffs, Job displacement, etc. There is no opt out here. Once you're replaced with AI, that is it. At least with cryptocurrency and prediction markets you can make money but i…

> Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done.

What if there's a prediction market on your life? Would you say you're still "not participating, so no harm done" ?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#62

Post by zbentley »

gcr wrote: post #25
markus_zhang wrote: post #16

The gambling market is really bringing out the worst of us.

B-b-but futarchy and unbiased decisionmaking means well-calibrated markets could be a net good for society!! /hj

Yeah, that claim was always ludicrous to me too. Wisdom-of-crowds isn’t an unbiased decision making strategy, it’s quite biased. Crowd-wisdom works best as a limiter on the bias of other decision making strategies—this is why democracies use representatives rather than direct votes for most decisions.

And polymarket isn’t even the wisdom of crowds lol. At its greatest possible adoption it’s still the wisdom of internet-connected (mostly) white men with time and money to spend on gambling.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#63

Post by hollerith »

somelamer567 wrote: post #37
seydor wrote: post #5

Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency itself was designed to enable crime. Why else would one want an end-run around governments and law-enforcement, unless one were a criminal wanting to prey on others risk-free?

So, in your mind, making a payment, recieving a payment and holding money in savings are always bad when it goes against any government's law or order?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#65

Post by cucumber3732842 »

xvector wrote: post #56
TheDong wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but how do you find the person making the threats? Polymarket accounts are more-or-less just a crypto address. Whatsapp accounts are somewhat easier to link to a real identity, but still not hard to at least obscure a bit. The arm of the law struggles to reach across borders, and on the internet, it's quite plausible all those involved are in different jurisdictions.

Polymarket's founder is Shayne Coplan, 27-year old "youngest self-made billionaire" (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) A sane system would just throw him in jail until his illegal betting market implements KYC.

>A sane system would just throw him in jail.

A capricious system that interprets based on whim, politics and influence is a large part of how we got here.

People like this and their less than moral path in which they further their endeavors succeed specifically because of this environment.

Polymarket is basically a platform to monetize petty stuff while also being able to monetize bad stuff. There is soooo much pressure to monetize bad stuff that once you poke a hole it's an uncontrolled leak. Polymarket recognized this, used it to scale, and then wisely used that money to get the legitimization and buy in that they needed to make the system (capriciously) say "this is fine for now you can keep going".

They basically pulled a "actually Mr. Banker, I owe you so much money that it's your problem" but for insider information. The other metaphor you could use if people with a steady supply of prescription opioids don't turn to street drugs.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#66

Post by cannonpr »

fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

It can look bad, but this is just an aspect of human behavior en masse that we don’t normally get to see. A long time ago there was an incident on a military base. A man had gotten up on a building to commit suicide, and while the officers tried to convince him not to jump, the drafted soldiers gathered underneath and started chanting “jump, jump” because of a rule that said witnessing the suicide of a fellow soldier cut down their draft length. Anyway, point being, situations where group A can benefit by harming group B are always problematic with large groups of people. The internet has produced novel and worse things than this.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#67

Post by ajross »

So, just to point it out: people don't get violent and criminal magically because they made a bet. They get violent and criminal to backstop a bet they can't cover. The story here isn't that horrible criminals are using Polymarket. It's that Polymarket bettors are overleveraged, and at the margin some of them turn to crime to avoid losing their shirts.

We've all been looking around for the trigger for the market-crash-we-all-know-is-coming. Seems like "too much betting on a stupid war of choice" is just dumb enough to fit the timeline we've been trapped in. Very on-brand.

In other news: I'm almost entirely out of volatiles in my own portfolio right now. Cash and bonds until this pops. Frankly the chances are that today will be the day[1] are about as high as they've ever been.

[1] Trump, sigh, basically went on camera and capitulated, telling the world that there is no plan, the US doesn't have the capability to ensure trade through Hormuz and that Iran will deny access until Iran decides otherwise. Markets don't like uncertainty, but they really, really hate losing wars.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#68

Post by laurentiurad »

xvector wrote: post #56
TheDong wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but how do you find the person making the threats? Polymarket accounts are more-or-less just a crypto address. Whatsapp accounts are somewhat easier to link to a real identity, but still not hard to at least obscure a bit. The arm of the law struggles to reach across borders, and on the internet, it's quite plausible all those involved are in different jurisdictions.

Polymarket's founder is Shayne Coplan, 27-year old "youngest self-made billionaire" (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) A sane system would just throw him in jail until his illegal betting market implements KYC.

yea just throw the CEO of microsoft in jail too because illegal transactions are set via Xbox live.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#69

Post by ambicapter »

coole-wurst wrote: post #55
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

I think CP is worse. Personally. Different priorities I guess.

That existed before the internet.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#70

Post by 8-prime »

somelamer567 wrote: post #37
seydor wrote: post #5

Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency itself was designed to enable crime. Why else would one want an end-run around governments and law-enforcement, unless one were a criminal wanting to prey on others risk-free?

A statement made from either privilige, ignorance or both.

Just because you might agree with the actions and behaviour of your current government enough, that you don't mind them being able to have a hand in your currency, doesn't mean that can't change.

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