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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#11

Post by damageboy »

pydry wrote: post #2

The level of censorship in Israel right now is off the charts: https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/ I suspect the gambler probably would have won on the basis of what happened but lost on the basis of what the times reported.

The rules don't apply for reporters outside of Israel, and this was historically been the way that Israeli journos and other bypass the censorship completely.

The author is being pressured (IMO) because the degens feel like they can threaten him (physical proximity)

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#12

Post by colesantiago »

epolanski wrote: post #9

Prediction markets need to be banned globally ASAP, but it would've helped the article to bring proof of: - the emails - the whatsapp messages - the discord messages - the X messages Mind you, I'm not stating the journalist is lying or overblowing, in fact I suspect this is all more widespread than we think, but it's odd that the journalist puts emphasis on the sources of his information in the case of the missile, y…

Why does everything you don't like need to be banned?

Downvoters:

I really doubt that you actually successfully 100% banned anything in the history of technology.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#13

Post by pjc50 »

epolanski wrote: post #9

Prediction markets need to be banned globally ASAP, but it would've helped the article to bring proof of: - the emails - the whatsapp messages - the discord messages - the X messages Mind you, I'm not stating the journalist is lying or overblowing, in fact I suspect this is all more widespread than we think, but it's odd that the journalist puts emphasis on the sources of his information in the case of the missile, y…

Journalists do not normally work like that. That might be how beefs are fought on social media, but of course screenshots are easy to fake anyway.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#14

Post by jrjeksjd8d »

pydry wrote: post #2

The level of censorship in Israel right now is off the charts: https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/ I suspect the gambler probably would have won on the basis of what happened but lost on the basis of what the times reported.

I think it's the opposite - the censorship has made the Israeli public believe they're safer than they really are. The US is lying about their stockpiles and frantically moving resources from East Asia to try and shore up missile defense in the Middle East.

These people believed that no Iranian missiles could possibly get through and instead of accepting they were misled they're shooting the messenger

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#15

Post by colesantiago »

seydor wrote: post #5

Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency

AI is 1000%+ far worse to be fair.

Cryptocurrency (although I hate it) you don't have to participate, so no harm done.

Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done.

With AI, you're participating whether you like it or not. Layoffs, Job displacement, etc. There is no opt out here.

Once you're replaced with AI, that is it.

At least with cryptocurrency and prediction markets you can make money but it's obviously risky.

Ultimately with AI it would just push people to cryptocurrencies and prediction markets.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#17

Post by dwroberts »

colesantiago wrote: post #12
epolanski wrote: post #9

Prediction markets need to be banned globally ASAP, but it would've helped the article to bring proof of: - the emails - the whatsapp messages - the discord messages - the X messages Mind you, I'm not stating the journalist is lying or overblowing, in fact I suspect this is all more widespread than we think, but it's odd that the journalist puts emphasis on the sources of his information in the case of the missile, y…

Why does everything you don't like need to be banned? Downvoters: I really doubt that you actually successfully 100% banned anything in the history of technology.

Why is everything you like protected from being banned?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#18

Post by pjc50 »

colesantiago wrote: post #12
epolanski wrote: post #9

Prediction markets need to be banned globally ASAP, but it would've helped the article to bring proof of: - the emails - the whatsapp messages - the discord messages - the X messages Mind you, I'm not stating the journalist is lying or overblowing, in fact I suspect this is all more widespread than we think, but it's odd that the journalist puts emphasis on the sources of his information in the case of the missile, y…

Why does everything you don't like need to be banned? Downvoters: I really doubt that you actually successfully 100% banned anything in the history of technology.

Prediction markets on death are an assassination market. That's why they're against the rules even on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Prediction markets on terrorist attacks and wars are one step back from that, but similar negative side effects are possible. And, regardless of what people are betting on, the corruption incentive appears where it did not previously, resulting in things like this.

(I don't think there's literally an Iranian missile operator opening Polymarket, taking out a position for "missile lands on Israel", and then pressing the launch button, but ultimately that's what uncensored markets with uncensored movement of money would enable)

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#19

Post by epolanski »

colesantiago wrote: post #12
epolanski wrote: post #9

Prediction markets need to be banned globally ASAP, but it would've helped the article to bring proof of: - the emails - the whatsapp messages - the discord messages - the X messages Mind you, I'm not stating the journalist is lying or overblowing, in fact I suspect this is all more widespread than we think, but it's odd that the journalist puts emphasis on the sources of his information in the case of the missile, y…

Why does everything you don't like need to be banned? Downvoters: I really doubt that you actually successfully 100% banned anything in the history of technology.

1. It's not something I don't like, it's something plain illegal in most of the world, including the US under the Dodd-Frank act, which the current executive has decided to not enforce.

2. The reason it is illegal it is beyond obvious: basic economics and game theory explain you how dangerous it is tying real world events with financial incentives.

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