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512 Paths to the White House

nytimes.com

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Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#141

Post by spoiledtechie »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #95
tisme wrote: post #90

This is all window dressing. Elections do not decide who wins. Funding does. And as long as corporations can outspend private citizens companies decide elections. If you wanted to reform elections in the USA then you would have to start to curb the direct influence of corporations on the elections, compared to that the electoral college is a minor detail.

You're just translating the problem one level, you're not actually addressing the root problem. The problem isn't that money is allowed to be spent in elections, or even that corporations can outspend individuals or truly grass roots organizations (unions are a big part of the top political donors, for example). Ultimately, buying a TV spot or radio advertisement does not constitute "buying" a vote. The problem is th…

Actually, They are right.

I really think you should take the time to watch this video, understand it, let it sink in and totally mold your brain around it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ik1AK56FtVc

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#142

Post by ewillbefull »

MichaelApproved wrote: post #139
refurb wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who gets to decide whether or not candidates adhered to these restrictions? Can you imagine if an "election oversight board" penalized a candidate for "unfair communications"? Jesus, that would be tied up in courts for years.

They've done it in the UK. I'm not saying it's exactly how we should do it here but it's something that should be considered. "The consequences, the judges made immediately clear, were serious. “Allegations of an illegal practice in elections,” they wrote in their full judgement, “have what are in effect penal consequences.” As such, the May election Woolas won by 103 votes was declared void, and he was barred from t…

Do you really think the UK is a good example of free speech or effective governance? Free speech is extremely broken in that country. It's so bad there that they have to work to repeal crap like this:

http://reformsection5.org.uk/

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#143

Post by backprojection »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #108
waterlesscloud wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What specific concrete difference do you see happening in that case? What does it mean to "campaign to all people"?

One effect - economic conservatism may make a comeback. NY, CA and several other liberal states tend to have people who call themselves "conservatives" (folks like me). We tend to be libertarian leaning economic conservatives who don't identify with religious culture war stuff (war on christmas, the gays are gonna get you). We get ignored since our vote doesn't matter. This leads to national candidates who are basica…

Isn't what you're describing more an effect of a two-party system? Unrelated policies tend to get pushed together just because they fit best under one party vs. the other one.

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#145

Post by logn »

hristov wrote: post #65
cletus wrote: post #60

Well I guess it's that time in the cycle again: for people to complain about the electoral college (disclaimer: I'm not American). Over the years in different elections in different countries I've heard this complaint [1] > The electoral college is incredibly unfair to voters who live in states that lean opposite their view. Translation: > It's unfair that I don't get my way even though I'm in the minority. Also, thi…

You are entitled to your dubious opinions but please do not try to change history. All newspapers agreed that Gore won Florida. What they said was that the Gore vs Bush decision would not have made a difference. That is because in his legal case Gore chose the wrong Florida counties where to request a recount. But if all votes were counted, Gore won. And no the electoral college does not exist to avoid deadlock. Do y…

> And no the electoral college does not exist to avoid deadlock. Do you know what the chances of deadlock are in a popular vote of about 100 million people?

It might not be the intention to avoid deadlock (I have no idea). But it could definitely happen. You don't need an even split for this to occur, just enough to require a recount, which in a popular vote might mean recounting every single vote in the country which would be a nightmare.

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#146

Post by baddox »

studentrob wrote: post #73
baddox wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are problems with FTPT, but all voting systems are simply compromises between certain mutually exclusive criteria, all of which are generally desirable. You can't have all the desirable characteristics at the same time, as demonstrated by Arrow's impossiblity theorem and the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem. Sure, FTPT has some disadvantages, but trading it for something like instant run-off voting introduces some…

Most important to me would be a condorcet winner, something we do not have in FPTP (ftfy)

Why do you value the Condorcet criterion so much, especially since a Condorcet candidate might not even exist?

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#147

Post by baddox »

harshreality wrote: post #107
baddox wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are problems with FTPT, but all voting systems are simply compromises between certain mutually exclusive criteria, all of which are generally desirable. You can't have all the desirable characteristics at the same time, as demonstrated by Arrow's impossiblity theorem and the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem. Sure, FTPT has some disadvantages, but trading it for something like instant run-off voting introduces some…

FPTP and IRV for single-winner elections are completely compromised, due to tactical voting (and lack of fairness to third parties) in common scenarios. I don't think you can support your claim that other systems are just as bad. In every informed discussion of voting systems I've ever encountered, FPTP and IRV are considered inferior to voting systems like Condorcet variants [1] or Range Voting [2] [3]. Preference b…

Unfortunately, I believe all voting systems are subject to tactical voting, because of Condorcet's paradox. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

edit: I forgot to mention that all voting systems are subject to tactical voting, except for ones which are dictatorial or non-deterministic (and those are generally considered nonviable systems).

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#148

Post by skrebbel »

vsync wrote: post #78
downandout wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"> The electoral college is incredibly unfair to voters who live in states that lean opposite their view. Translation: > It's unfair that I don't get my way even though I'm in the minority." You appear to be writing this off as a minor issue. It is not. If Mitt Romney wins 49.999% of the vote in any state, and Obama wins the rest, Obama is awarded ALL of that state's electoral votes. That hardly reflects the will of…

> That hardly reflects the will of the people in the context of a /national/ election. Federal.

Hmm, offtopic but I'm curious: there's a semantic difference between the two terms? So the FBI and the NSA somehow operate at different levels, tied to different entities? If so, what's the difference?

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#149

Post by harshreality »

baddox wrote: post #147
harshreality wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FPTP and IRV for single-winner elections are completely compromised, due to tactical voting (and lack of fairness to third parties) in common scenarios. I don't think you can support your claim that other systems are just as bad. In every informed discussion of voting systems I've ever encountered, FPTP and IRV are considered inferior to voting systems like Condorcet variants [1] or Range Voting [2] [3]. Preference b…

Unfortunately, I believe all voting systems are subject to tactical voting, because of Condorcet's paradox. Please correct me if I'm wrong. edit: I forgot to mention that all voting systems are subject to tactical voting, except for ones which are dictatorial or non-deterministic (and those are generally considered nonviable systems).

Range voting at its worst turns into approval voting. RV is not an ordered list voting system, so Arrow's theorem, the Gibbard–Satterthwaite thorem, and Condorcet's paradox do not strictly apply.

For ranked ballot voting systems, there's a difference in what kinds of tactical voting are possible, and in how likely it is for tactical voting to improve your perception of the outcome (baysian regret comparison of honest vs tactical voting). Ranked voting systems are not all equivalently bad simply because they're each subject to some kinds of tactical voting.

I think Condorcet is promising (among all the ranked-ballot methods) because the Condorcet principle is easy to agree with. The choice of cycle-breaking method is where the fault lines appear, but new cycle-breaking methods could attract a consensus.

Re: 512 Paths to the White House

#150

Post by protomyth »

caf wrote: post #76
cletus wrote: post #60

Well I guess it's that time in the cycle again: for people to complain about the electoral college (disclaimer: I'm not American). Over the years in different elections in different countries I've heard this complaint [1] > The electoral college is incredibly unfair to voters who live in states that lean opposite their view. Translation: > It's unfair that I don't get my way even though I'm in the minority. Also, thi…

The two most important electoral reforms that the US could adopt would be to switch voting to Saturday, so that most people don't have to take time off work to vote; and to put the administration of federal elections in the hands of an independent, professional, non-partisan electoral commission.

Switching to Saturday would get the US in trouble with many religions in the US that would absolutely forbid voting on a Saturday. A weekday is much safer.

Having election day be a federal holiday wouldn't hurt.

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