Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sanity checks, sure, but SYN,!ACK packets cannot be rejected before the conntrack for obvious reasons. > Plenty of setups block incoming SYN,!ACK packets Nowhere close to being "plenty". It's doable, but this is extremely niche.
Does this mean by establishing a new connection with a SYN,ACK bypasses some firewalls? I expect at least one OS out there ignores the extraneous ACK flag and proceeds to establish a new connection.
All inbound packets are matched against existing sessions. In this case none will turn up, so the packet will go through the "new session" flow and be subject to the same filtering as a bare SYN. Look up how connection tracking works, e.g. in the Linux kernel, it's rather simple and logical.