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Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

newscientist.com

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Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#41

Post by bluGill »

ciupicri wrote: post #24
jmyeet wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The story I like to tell is about the Manhattan Project. This caused a debate in US strategic circles that set policy for the entire post-1945 world. Debate included whether a preemptive nuclear strike on the USSR was necessary or even just a good idea. Anyway, many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. The hydrogen bomb? The USA tested theirs in…

> many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. Because some people committed treason and gave the technology to the Soviets.

Some people will give it to china too. We have even caught a few (in other industries).

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#42

Post by SlinkyOnStairs »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #31
SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another major detail is that SpaceX is simply burning enormous amounts of money on this. Starlink's revenue is comparable to the ESA's entire 5 billion euro budget, and it still looks like starlink is not net-profitable as a service. (And kessler syndrome avoidance is already pushing up costs with the lower orbits) The chief problem "stopping" other countries from developing a starlink competitor is that starlink sim…

> it still looks like starlink is not net-profitable as a service Starlink was profitable in 2024 [1] and should be materially profitable once V3 goes up. > kessler syndrome avoidance is already pushing up costs with the lower orbits This hits everyone. And it’s not a serious cost issue. Starlinks are still being deorbited before they need to be due to obselescence. And the propellant depots SpaceX is building for NA…

> Starlink was profitable in 2024

Those are revenue figures.

> This hits everyone. And it’s not a serious cost issue.

That it affects everyone just makes the problem worse. If China or the EU does commit to a starlink competitor, there's even more crowding in orbit. Even more collision avoidance required.

> Starlinks are still being deorbited before they need to be due to obselescence

That's the point. These things are not staying up long, and they're staying up shorter and shorter.

The constellation is both expensive to build and to maintain. That makes it a lot of trouble compared to running a bunch of fiber once and having only occasional maintenance trouble when some idiot drags a backhoe through it.

> Infrastructure gets blown up and shut off. Hence the military interest.

The military interest is real, but it remains to be seen how much money they're willing to put up for it. Higher latency more conventional satellite internet will have significant cost savings in comparison.

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#43

Post by toomuchtodo »

SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #42
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it still looks like starlink is not net-profitable as a service Starlink was profitable in 2024 [1] and should be materially profitable once V3 goes up. > kessler syndrome avoidance is already pushing up costs with the lower orbits This hits everyone. And it’s not a serious cost issue. Starlinks are still being deorbited before they need to be due to obselescence. And the propellant depots SpaceX is building for NA…

> Starlink was profitable in 2024 Those are revenue figures. > This hits everyone. And it’s not a serious cost issue. That it affects everyone just makes the problem worse. If China or the EU does commit to a starlink competitor, there's even more crowding in orbit. Even more collision avoidance required. > Starlinks are still being deorbited before they need to be due to obselescence That's the point. These things a…

What would the cost be to deny these orbital altitudes?

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#44

Post by yostrovs »

roughly wrote: post #19
spwa4 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ever notice just how many countries seem to be pretty convinced war is coming? And don't tell me it's all Trump, at the very least they believe that whoever follows Trump isn't going to be very different. Plus it's mostly EU that's rearming, and surely they aren't afraid they'll be attacked ...

EU had a reliable military and technological partner in the US until circa 2016, and maintaining that belief became untenable in 2024. The reason EU countries are all of the sudden investing in onshoring critical military capabilities is that until Trump it’s been the policy position of the US to prevent them from doing so by doing it for them, a policy we inaugurated after WW2 and expanded during the Cold War for va…

Europe wouldn't spend the agreed 2% of GDP on the military. Many presidents for many years tried to make them comply with the agreement, but they just ignored it. It was thought better to spend on the healthcare of the public and mock Americans for not having universal government healthcare. Many people in countries in Europe, like Spain and Ireland, that effectively don't have militaries, are still laughing and mocking.

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#45

Post by kelnos »

ciupicri wrote: post #24
jmyeet wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The story I like to tell is about the Manhattan Project. This caused a debate in US strategic circles that set policy for the entire post-1945 world. Debate included whether a preemptive nuclear strike on the USSR was necessary or even just a good idea. Anyway, many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. The hydrogen bomb? The USA tested theirs in…

> many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. Because some people committed treason and gave the technology to the Soviets.

Yes, but how they got it is irrelevant. They got it, and that's what matters.

China can (and does) do the same for current tech today, through whatever means.

(Also, GP's comment directly said what you said; not sure what your comment adds to the discussion.)

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#46

Post by bluGill »

Razengan wrote: post #37

God can we have an alien invasion already PLEASE 12 000 years of this shit

Sorry, relativity is against it. They - if they exist (a debate I'm not touching) - don't even know we are here. Even if they knew we are here they can't get here.

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#47

Post by icegreentea2 »

kolinko wrote: post #2

The thing is - without Falcon9 / Starship they really cannot - both China and EU are ~10-20 years (sic) behind SpaceX, and without thousands of satellites on LEO you just cannot have terminal similar to SpaceX's. (And don't get me started on how bad Iris2 is/will be. It's a program that EU has to shut down discussions on how terribly behind we are. The last time I checked, a year ago, EU's plans were to have first Fa…

I'd broadly agree that EU is pretty behind the curve. But I think China is probably only ~5 years max behind the curve in terms of Starlink.

But in terms of defense needs, I don't think you actually need the thousands and thousands for reasonable returns. DoD/NRO has bought maybe ~500 Starshields (https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/26/spacex-starshield-...) from SpaceX.

I think China is well within reach of being able to put up those numbers within a few years, even if they don't get re-use figured out (which I think they will within a 2-3 years - basically what SpaceX did from the first landing attempts to success).

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#48

Post by palmotea »

tartuffe78 wrote: post #6
thisislife2 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what makes Falcon9 / Starship special (or needed) to launch these satellites? China, India, EU, Japan etc. all have the capability to launch satellites. So why is a Falcon9 / Starship a particular requirement?

Starlink is apparently 65% of all active satellites, it would be very expensive to emulate that without super efficient launching capabilities.

> Starlink is apparently 65% of all active satellites, it would be very expensive to emulate that without super efficient launching capabilities.

But does a military really need that many to get the necessary capability? Would a smaller constellation be sufficient, especially without competing civilian users?

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#49

Post by palmotea »

ciupicri wrote: post #24
jmyeet wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The story I like to tell is about the Manhattan Project. This caused a debate in US strategic circles that set policy for the entire post-1945 world. Debate included whether a preemptive nuclear strike on the USSR was necessary or even just a good idea. Anyway, many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. The hydrogen bomb? The USA tested theirs in…

> many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. Because some people committed treason and gave the technology to the Soviets.

> Because some people committed treason and gave the technology to the Soviets.

American big business is pretty much doing that every day, handing over technology to increase China's manufacturing tech level.

Pretty soon China won't need it anymore. If the massive incompetence of the US government and business establishment is defeated, the the industrial espionage will start to go in the other direction. More likely is the US just declines, becoming little more than a source of raw materials and agricultural products to fuel advanced Chinese industry.

Re: Militaries are scrambling to create their own Starlink

#50

Post by Razengan »

bluGill wrote: post #46
Razengan wrote: post #37

God can we have an alien invasion already PLEASE 12 000 years of this shit

Sorry, relativity is against it. They - if they exist (a debate I'm not touching) - don't even know we are here. Even if they knew we are here they can't get here.

Or have a hands-off policy like we do with uncontacted tribes and some protected animal populations etc.

I'll settle for anything to be honest. A sign, a derelict, an artifact, a fossil, an echo.. anything to distract humans from shitting on each other for a little while at least.

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