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Urea prices

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21–30 of 100 posts

Re: Urea prices

#21

Incredible how Trump ran on a "no wars" and "lower prices" platform. And that people actually believed it.

The value of the Trump presidency for his voters was never really about those issues, so much as who he was promising to hurt.

For the core of his base certainly, but he can't win with just them, it's not enough. He won because of the median voter that was mad at the incumbent party for inflation.

Re: Urea prices

#23
post #17

LNG -> urea (fertilizer) -> food About half of all fertilizer is artificially created using fossil fuels. There is no undoing of this price shock because the planting and growing season has already arrived in the Northern Hemisphere. Expect grains to become more expensive and downstream food products like milk and cheese to increase a lot.

Most of the worlds bio fuel that we use to reduce emission in transportation comes from crops farmed to be turned into bio fuel. How will the increase in LNG then do to the price of bio fuels?

It's debatable whether biofuels reduce CO2. I think it's better to understand them as subsidies for agriculture.

Re: Urea prices

#24
post #17

LNG -> urea (fertilizer) -> food About half of all fertilizer is artificially created using fossil fuels. There is no undoing of this price shock because the planting and growing season has already arrived in the Northern Hemisphere. Expect grains to become more expensive and downstream food products like milk and cheese to increase a lot.

Most of the worlds bio fuel that we use to reduce emission in transportation comes from crops farmed to be turned into bio fuel. How will the increase in LNG then do to the price of bio fuels?

That will depend country to country. The US doesn't use urea to the same degree that Brazil, India, and China do. And Brazil (just like the US) doesn't rely on NatGas from the Gulf.

It's mostly China and India that are impacted, but both have the Russian option.

This isn't our first rodeo with elevated urea and NatGas prices - the same thing happened during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (and is reflected in the same dataset OP linked).

This is also why Asian countries have been investing heavily in Hydrogen energy despite HN's hate boner to the technology.

Re: Urea prices

#26
Yes urea is used in fertilizer. Yes, the price is going up relative to May 13, 2024 (lowest in 5 years).

look at the chart in the article, then click 5Y on the bottom of the chart.

Click the + sign between the calendar and wrench icon

Type in "US Food inflation". It will overlay the "urea" price with the "US food inflation".

Yes, urea seems to be a leading indicator. It is nothing like in 2022, yet.

Re: Urea prices

#27
post #25

Sooner rather than later we need to decarbonize fertilizer production. Maybe this will speed the process up a bit.

Indeed, I did some work on that with regards to renewable ammonia production, interesting field to look into if you're curious

Re: Urea prices

#28
Saw posters on /r/Truckers complaining that truck stops were taking advantage of situation to gouge for DEF too on top of diesel before someone pointed out that Iran is the second largest producer of urea, the primary component of DEF. They are not happy right now with $5.00 / gal fuel and higher DEF as well.

Worried the administration will use it as an excuse to rollback NOx emissions regulations that mandated DEF usage in diesel engines. They are already not enforcing "deletes" of the emissions systems which is a federal crime.

Re: Urea prices

#29
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the US primarily got it's LNG supply from fracking. Is this incorrect?

US domestic fossil gas consumers compete with global LNG buyers willing to pay premiums for LNG exported from the US. https://www.reuters.com/markets/tracking-lng-flows-key-globa... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-natural-gas-prices-rise-130...

Doh! That makes a lot of sense. I don't know how I missed that. Thanks for the links, they are great reads.

Re: Urea prices

#30

Incredible how Trump ran on a "no wars" and "lower prices" platform. And that people actually believed it.

It's really not about them "believing" it. They tend to "believe" any new reality they are presented with if given by the "right" person. And they will just as quickly discard those "beliefs" if they are told something different by the "right" person. Trump is that person for them right now. Ultimately there is no value that "conservatives" aren't willing to abandon other than maintaining the hierarchy. Everything else seems to be in service to that end. They fight hardest when new groups are receiving rights they didn't previously enjoy. It's never been about "fiscal responsibility". It's never been about "small government" or "states rights". They are quite happy to abandon all of those if a trans person might be be able to use a bathroom in peace.

"When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time." ~ Maya Angelou

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