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2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

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Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#201

Post by tsotha »

incision wrote: post #173
tsotha wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh huh. How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so?

>How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so? Is this a fact, expensive battery replacements after 10 years and all? I really have no idea, but I took a few minutes to try and look it up. At a glance, it looks likes replacing a Prius battery today runs about half a much today as it did 10 years ago. Folks on the Tes…

Folks on the Tesla forums claim that you can pre-pay for a an eventual replacement to the tune of about $12K or 11% of the price of a new Roadster.

Right. The Roadster costs so much it makes sense to replace the battery. But if you paid $30k for a car and the battery costs $12k, it's a different story. Normal people are not going to spend $100k on a car.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#202

Post by jblow »

lambda wrote: post #195
Bud wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard for me to even enumerate how many ways this is wrong. But I'll try. Batteries are still too heavy Changing. Rapidly. take too long to charge Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. (batteries) are too expensive Sorry to be a broken record, but this too is improving rapidly. require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of…

> Batteries are still too heavy > Changing. Rapidly. It doesn't matter how rapidly they are changing; the original comment was saying that they are too heavy now . You can hypothesize about where they will be in 5 years, but that's uncertain and doesn't apply to cars that are available now. >take too long to charge > Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. Again, rate of improvement doesn't have…

What does "the batteries are too heavy" even mean? Too heavy for what?

Tesla just released a really big car with a heavy battery that goes 265 miles on a charge (under the very strict new EPA rating; at older methods of measuring range this number would be much higher). So I ask the batteries are too heavy for what exactly?

Also, if you are paying attention, you know that Tesla has just opened to the public a number of Supercharger stations that will charge the Model S battery 50% of the way in about 20 minutes. So your complaint of "wait hours for a charge" is already solved, today, in 2012, at least if you live in California (and Tesla plans to expand the Supercharger network rapidly).

There have been anti-EV arguments for years, but the arguments keep changing, which is how you know that EVs have won. The main argument used to be that EVs would never go far enough, that people would have too much range anxiety. That has been solved. Then the argument was that the cars are too expensive. That is in the process of being solved right now, as you see from Roadster->Model S. There are other problems but they are much smaller. "I park on the street so I don't have a place to charge my car" is not very hard to solve: it is obviously just a matter of will.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#203

Post by jblow »

jlmendezbonini wrote: post #190
jblow wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those of us who own electric cars know that electric cars have already won. They are just too good compared to regular somewhat-junky gasoline cars. The benefits are too numerous to list. The only problem that I have with my Roadster is that if I want to take a long road trip, there has to be a big stopover in the middle, which makes trips much longer. The Model S solves that. Therefore, EVs have won. They are here n…

Did your electric bill increased significantly? Have you measure how many Miles/dollar,or some other similar metric, you get?

My electric bill has increased by about $15 a month, depending on how much I drive. It is way cheaper than gas. (But the car is so expensive that you won't break even via cheaper fuel!)

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#204

Post by kamaal »

lambda wrote: post #195
Bud wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard for me to even enumerate how many ways this is wrong. But I'll try. Batteries are still too heavy Changing. Rapidly. take too long to charge Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. (batteries) are too expensive Sorry to be a broken record, but this too is improving rapidly. require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of…

> Batteries are still too heavy > Changing. Rapidly. It doesn't matter how rapidly they are changing; the original comment was saying that they are too heavy now . You can hypothesize about where they will be in 5 years, but that's uncertain and doesn't apply to cars that are available now. >take too long to charge > Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. Again, rate of improvement doesn't have…

Just imagine if people in 80's had a similar attitude about internet, where would we be now?

If we were to wait for things to get perfectly ready. 90% of the things in this world would never get ready at all.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#205

Post by jblow »

abhimishra wrote: post #160
jblow wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those of us who own electric cars know that electric cars have already won. They are just too good compared to regular somewhat-junky gasoline cars. The benefits are too numerous to list. The only problem that I have with my Roadster is that if I want to take a long road trip, there has to be a big stopover in the middle, which makes trips much longer. The Model S solves that. Therefore, EVs have won. They are here n…

How does the Model S solve the longer trips issue? On a road-trip I might drive 500 miles in a day. The priciest Model S gets 300 miles at 55 miles an hour. And with climate control on that is likely to be less in reality. If this trip were in cold weather (ski trips and such) the range would be SIGNIFICANTLY less. As a comparison, my gasoline-hybrid can squeeze out over 500 miles on a tank at 55 miles an hour. And I…

The Model S solves the issue via the ability to charge at Tesla's "supercharger" stations (much faster recharge than any other EV), and via the supercharger network that Tesla is currently building (some stations in California are currently open, and they recently presented their expansion plan for this network).

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#206

Post by stretchwithme »

lambda wrote: post #195
Bud wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard for me to even enumerate how many ways this is wrong. But I'll try. Batteries are still too heavy Changing. Rapidly. take too long to charge Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. (batteries) are too expensive Sorry to be a broken record, but this too is improving rapidly. require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of…

> Batteries are still too heavy > Changing. Rapidly. It doesn't matter how rapidly they are changing; the original comment was saying that they are too heavy now . You can hypothesize about where they will be in 5 years, but that's uncertain and doesn't apply to cars that are available now. >take too long to charge > Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. Again, rate of improvement doesn't have…

The important thing is that those who believe that electric cars are viable be able to finance the enterprise. The sooner the taxpayer is no longer forced to subsidize them, the better.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#208

Post by jblow »

freehunter wrote: post #193
rossjudson wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how about you RENT A CAR once a year, for your 8000 mile trip across multiple state lines. Your daily commute is how far?

So let's do some math. I drive a Toyota truck that goes anywhere and does everything. It gets 20mpg average (I have a ScanGauge for monitoring this). It's 14 years old, and it cost me $5000 when I bought it. So at an average daily commute for Americans of 16 miles [1] (my commute is 5 miles one direction), that would give me an average of 400 bidirectional gallons used per year (16 miles one direction times 250 worki…

Wait, now you are comparing a luxury car to a Toyota truck. That doesn't make any sense at all, so your question "Which one makes more economic sense?" doesn't make sense.

By your logic, everyone who buys a BMW M3 or a Porsche Boxster ... or whatever ... is dumb because they should have bought a Toyota truck because it is only $19,000 over 5 years.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#209

Post by pirateking »

confluence wrote: post #155
pirateking wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your post and general outlook on electric vehicles - they are definitely the future. However, I do not agree with Mr. Buffett's statement - if it were the case, no one would ever make a single statement.

> no one would ever make a single statement Maybe that would be a good thing. Most people don't know jack about economics, physics, finance, engineering, artificial intelligence, the future, technology or pretty much anything outside of their day to day job. You'll notice that whenever someone like that does open their mouth in your field without knowing jack about it - you immediately understand that he has no idea…

I have my own philosophy for information processing. After thinking about it, it boils down to these 5 steps.

  1. Consume liberally.
  2. Process rigorously.
  3. Store cautiously.
  4. Modify frequently.
  5. Express freely.
Step 5 feeds back into Step 1, and is the step that puts me at odds with Buffett's statement. I think it is an important one though, even if the expressed ideas are incorrect or incomplete, because it keeps the information cycle flowing. Bullshit of some form will always exist until everyone is an omniscient deity and all truth in the Universe is known.

To me, the much more worrisome issue is the lack of emphasis on Steps 2, 3, 4: asking questions, questioning answers, answering questions. Encouraging people to try Steps 2, 3, and 4 is a more widely beneficial solution than telling them to just avoid Step 5 unless they are God.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#210

Post by whatusername »

freehunter wrote: post #198
lancewiggs wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gasoline infrastructure is not entirely free from cost. It costs of lot of money to staff gas stations, to deliver the fuel and to maintain everything. The sites themselves are in prime locations and could be repurposed to higher value activity. The fuel tank trucks are cumbersome and dangerous, and the refineries more so. Charging your EV at home and work is already sufficient for, I assume, the vast majority of…

Electric may be the answer in the near future. I still don't believe it is now , but I do applaud companies and individuals for helping push that innovation forward. The electric market is in a catch-22: electric powered cars are expensive, and it will only get cheaper when more people start buying into it. I see cars like the Volt having more mass-market appeal for the next decade than the Tesla. I applaud Musk in e…

I'd hoped that BetterPlace might have an answer to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place But considering their difficulties in the last few weeks - perhaps not them. The Battery-Switch concept is potentially sound though.
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