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Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#161

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tartoran wrote: post #142
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it should be a political goal to keep income distribution relatively stable This penalizes economic dynamism and moves economic decision making from risk taking to whoever defies the baseline distribution. > A good economy is also relatively stable. Big booms with a crash following are very devastating to not-rich people Not necessarily–plenty of social systems let the market boom and bust without causing social di…

Risk taking should be penalized harshly when the risk is high, that’s the nature of risk. If it pays off good, it was a good move but if it was bad one let the risk taker suffer.

> Risk taking should be penalized harshly when the risk is high, that’s the nature of risk

If the odds (and pay-outs) are 10,000:1 and you cap pay-outs at 1,000:1, you've made a high-risk/high-reward risk unworkable in your economy. Systems that target a distribution tend to wind up in that mode, with the risk takers taking their risks (and producing their rewards) outside the system.

Keeping distributions stable means capping upsides. There are better ways to redistribute wealth.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#162

Post by FpUser »

bluegatty wrote: post #151
chneu wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.

Probably not, they are preparing but that does not mean they will ever do it. Xi just faced a mutiny and had to put top generals away. Key people in China military oppose the plans. Even as they near readiness with some things, others remain far behind, and untested. It's an extremely risky move and they don't take those kinds of risks. Island landing 100 km away = Chinese D-Day means absolutely enormous casualties,…

>"If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown,"

Xi will be probably burned at the stake. CPP will most likely proceed with new leader.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#163

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lovich wrote: post #106
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Realizing that GDP growth can be achieved while average joe on Main Street is struggling This is most GDP growth across human history until the Industrial Revolution with the exception of maybe a half dozen civilisations.

What did your response have to do with your quote? We can have the most growth ever as a civilization and still have the common person lose out. The Industrial Revolution also famously had a lot of people pushed into impoverished situations while robber barons or the highland clearing lords won out, despite the GDP of those respective countries increasing.

> What did your response have to do with your quote?

The notion that growth can be unequal is not something that has changed. The anomaly was the post-WWII eventide regime.

That doesn't mean there is anything natural about unequal growth. But if we want to return to that previous mode, we have to first understand what it was. And what it was was anomalous.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#164

Post by FpUser »

craftkiller wrote: post #144
nradov wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just go pick up your own take-out food. Like do these customers not have working cars or even bicycles? I understand that there are customers who are stuck at home due to disability or caregiver responsibilities but those are a tiny niche. I've seen able-bodied young people spending a fortune on delivery services, which is just stupid.

> not have working cars or even bicycles Yes. I live in NYC so I don't have a car because we have the subway, street parking is a nightmare, and paid parking is $500-$1000/month. I don't have a bicycle because it would either waste _significant_ space in my apartment, or I'd have to leave it outside where it would be promptly stolen (regardless of locks). If I decided against having my bike stolen, I'd have to carry…

>"Assuming everyone has cars or bicycles is a very suburban mindset."

I live int Toronto which is hardly suburban. It is however choke full of bike-share. Go outside, walk a bit and grab a bicycle. NY obviously does not care.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#165

Post by JumpCrisscross »

conductr wrote: post #158
s1artibartfast wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The connection is that GDP/Recession has never been about mainstreet or average joe. Recession is usually bad for Joe and mainstreat, but the opposite is not implied. It is ignorant to think it is or was defined by the average experience.

I feel it’s also ignorant to think it shouldn’t be defined by that experience. Our metrics have been misleading or we just need better ones and/or possibly a new word for how average joe talks about “recession”. A purely academic definition that has no basis in reality seems pointless to me.

> it’s also ignorant to think it shouldn’t be defined by that experience

If defined rigorously, sure. But the literature is replete with measureas of downturns.

What more commonly comes up in online discussions is some dude with a vibe, which isn't particularly useful for talking about anything larger in scale than that one dude.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#166

Post by craftkiller »

FpUser wrote: post #164
craftkiller wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not have working cars or even bicycles Yes. I live in NYC so I don't have a car because we have the subway, street parking is a nightmare, and paid parking is $500-$1000/month. I don't have a bicycle because it would either waste _significant_ space in my apartment, or I'd have to leave it outside where it would be promptly stolen (regardless of locks). If I decided against having my bike stolen, I'd have to carry…

>"Assuming everyone has cars or bicycles is a very suburban mindset." I live int Toronto which is hardly suburban. It is however choke full of bike-share. Go outside, walk a bit and grab a bicycle. NY obviously does not care.

I don't use the bike share (citibike) because the fee for a "lost" bicycle is $1,200. I saw enough stories online of people who thought they returned the bicycle but it didn't actually lock the bicycle to the stand, and then ended up with a $1,200 fee. I'm not taking on that kind of liability to grab some shawarma. Also NYC needs more bike lanes.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#167

Post by AngryData »

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

Or maybe it is in one, but neither the government nor wallstreet wants to admit it because it will kill their investment markets, kill political careers, and cause large shifts in voting patterns which threatens established parties and companies.

When even big tech companies are starting to say it, the highest margin businesses with the highest paid workers, how do you imagine most other industries are and have been feeling?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#168

Post by iJohnDoe »

alexpotato wrote: post #75

I'm always somewhat puzzled by debates around "are we in a recession?" b/c we have so many REAL TIME metrics around what people are actually doing. e.g. credit card companies have excellent data on the amount that people are spending on. Is that not enough to determine if people are spending more or less than in the past? I understand there are seasonal trend etc etc but even "how is spending on travel this year comp…

Anything released regarding unemployment and the economy are lies. If anyone in the US government tries to tell the truth they are fired.

It’s damn near impossible these days to know what’s actually going on.

All the layoffs and difficulty to find a new job should be causing a lot of suffering out there, especially in the US. Yet, everything seems to be great!

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#169

Post by bad_haircut72 »

state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

On some weird level of irony this might cause a huge green transition

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#170

Post by PearlRiver »

dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

Yeah in rich countries nobody is going to starve- at worst you'll have to shop at Aldi. In Africa the price of bread actually matters...
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