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Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

businessinsider.com

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Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#21

Post by dangus »

bayarearefugee wrote: post #9
abuani wrote: post #3

I'm surprised the article or the source for it didn't dive deeper into the impact the changes to H1B have had on the tech job numbers. Mind you I'm not trying to argue for or against them, but I find it hard to believe the changes aren't contributing at least a small amount to the drop. The other thing not mentioned is the impact on the end for ZIRP. Every tech company with a pulse over hired such a staggering amount…

> It's not surprising these companies are returning to reality and not hiring back to the same levels. The common claim from the "dont worry about AI stealing jobs" crowd is that there is nearly limitless demand for new software to be written. Even if over hiring is the reason for a lot of current job losses, the fact that over hiring is possible makes it obvious their Jevron's paradox claims are either lies or an at…

I think a more common claim is that the current downturn is way more obviously explained by Covid-era overhiring.

Basically all the charts on that subject are incredibly eye-opening.

To me it shows that the tech industry has actually been extremely resilient. Despite clearly going on an insane hiring spree that was not justifiable in the end, there hasn’t really been the kind of collapse we should expect. Tech companies have still maintained revenues and we haven’t seen any real sign of collapse. Companies that have gone trough major layoffs generally still have more employees than they did before 2020.

What we are seeing are some tech employees who were used to nearly a decade of easy work act like spending 3-6 months looking for a job is industry apocalypse.

I think you actually need to support the idea that there isn’t a nearly endless demand for software to be written.

Software is just business logic.

What businesses don’t involve software?

What businesses are you seeing that are saying “our software is done, there are no more ways to optimize our business, and there’s no need to evolve business processes to compete, we don’t need to update it anymore!”?

I can’t think of any business vertical that isn’t expecting constant improvement with their software.

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#22

Post by posix_compliant »

jmyeet wrote: post #17

It has been the dream of the wealthy to eliminate labor since at least the Industrial Revolution (and probably much longer). Workers are annoying. You have to pay them. They demand things like time off and safe working conditions. They hurt profits . Through the 20th century we saw increased automation that displaced so-caleld blue collar workers who were repeatedly told "get better skills" like this was somehow thei…

I agree on sensing some kind of systemic collapse. It feels those with more resources are getting increasingly efficient at extracting wealth from those with fewer resources.

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#23

Post by jordanb »

hiremelocally wrote: post #18

New roles at my FAANG company are mostly outside HCOL areas, and often outside the US. It's not just outsourcing. These roles have real hiring standards, are getting real work for real teams, and they're remote. Outsourcing feels different this time because it's not some offshore contract team; it's full-time company stuff. Makes me wonder if it's just because WFH proved it works, so why not hire from Krakow? Edit: U…

I was working for a company who tried to do that. We opened offices in Warsaw and Krakow and started trying to hire. We really couldn't get anyone, as everyone else had the same idea at the same time. People in those markets who were good and spoke english well basically had open offers from their choice of American firms.

I think we then were trying to open in Ukraine until the war.

The problem was that the talent pool just wasn't very deep and the thundering herd of American companies crowding in sucked it dry. Most of the people we did end up hiring in Poland were actually blue card holders from India.

After that we got bought by a PE firm who decided to do a GCC strategy focused on India, managed by McKinsey, it went as well as any other McKinsey lead outsourcing effort and the company is now spiraling.

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#24

Post by gravisultra »

alephnerd wrote: post #10
the_real_cher wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its impossible to ignore when a company laysoff thousands but then has thousands if verifiable H1Bs in the H1B logs. I agree with you. I'm not arguing for or against it. I do think leaving it out of the conversation is a willful choice and blaming job loss solely on AI is becoming propaganda at this point.

Employees on work visas are the first and easiest employees to lay off because we don't see our insurance premiums rise when laying them off (it's what most of us did early during COVID). And now with the $100K fees we have no incentive to hire most employees on a work visa anyhow. Hear that sound? It's the sound of GCCs opening in Poland, Romania, Israel, and India with those employees who were on work visas in the…

I don't know what a GCC is but I assure you that no one is opening offices in Israel.

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#25

Post by shermantanktop »

gaigalas wrote: post #12

I got my first big job in 2008. Fond memories of that time!

I did well through the 2000 and 2008 crashes. Well, lost my job in 2000 but got an upgrade in 4 months.

Looking backward it looks like everyone suffered during these crashes, but in fact many individuals did fine or even benefited from the realignments.

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#26

Post by alephnerd »

gravisultra wrote: post #24
alephnerd wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Employees on work visas are the first and easiest employees to lay off because we don't see our insurance premiums rise when laying them off (it's what most of us did early during COVID). And now with the $100K fees we have no incentive to hire most employees on a work visa anyhow. Hear that sound? It's the sound of GCCs opening in Poland, Romania, Israel, and India with those employees who were on work visas in the…

I don't know what a GCC is but I assure you that no one is opening offices in Israel.

I can assure you otherwise - hell two of my Israeli/American startups are about to come out of stealth in the coming days as RSAC is approaching.

Even with the current Iran War and the Gaza War, it's been business as usual.

Edit: can't reply

> You may be putting your money there, but consumers aren't having it

Most companies aren't B2C or B2B2C. Enterprise and B2B is solely outcome driven.

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#27

Post by rangestransform »

alephnerd wrote: post #19
hiremelocally wrote: post #18

New roles at my FAANG company are mostly outside HCOL areas, and often outside the US. It's not just outsourcing. These roles have real hiring standards, are getting real work for real teams, and they're remote. Outsourcing feels different this time because it's not some offshore contract team; it's full-time company stuff. Makes me wonder if it's just because WFH proved it works, so why not hire from Krakow? Edit: U…

> Makes me wonder if it's just because WFH proved it works, so why not hire from Krakow? As someone in the room when those decisions were/are made, pretty much. Additionally, when the COVID recession began (before the stimulus package) most employers were laying off employees on work visas or giving them the option to open and expand offices in their home country. A lot of senior Indian and Polish Googlers took the o…

For better or for worse, the most desirable places in the US not only refuse to participate in the race to the bottom anymore, they actively pursue a vendetta against well paying tech jobs opening up (see: Amazon HQ2 in NYC)

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#28

Post by willio58 »

jmyeet wrote: post #17

It has been the dream of the wealthy to eliminate labor since at least the Industrial Revolution (and probably much longer). Workers are annoying. You have to pay them. They demand things like time off and safe working conditions. They hurt profits . Through the 20th century we saw increased automation that displaced so-caleld blue collar workers who were repeatedly told "get better skills" like this was somehow thei…

> This is why I think we're headed for systemic collapse.

Unfortunately I think the only thing that will save us long term is systematic collapse triggering mass social and political movements to tax the billionaires.

We have severe cost of living issues for so many Americans, yet we haven’t actually reached that cusp where large swaths of Americans literally start starving, or losing their homes.

Until then, normal Americans will happily consume and believe the lies of politicians saying “grocery prices are going down”, “gas prices are going down”.

Re: Tech jobs are getting demolished in ways not seen since 2008

#30

Post by iwontberude »

posix_compliant wrote: post #22
jmyeet wrote: post #17

It has been the dream of the wealthy to eliminate labor since at least the Industrial Revolution (and probably much longer). Workers are annoying. You have to pay them. They demand things like time off and safe working conditions. They hurt profits . Through the 20th century we saw increased automation that displaced so-caleld blue collar workers who were repeatedly told "get better skills" like this was somehow thei…

I agree on sensing some kind of systemic collapse. It feels those with more resources are getting increasingly efficient at extracting wealth from those with fewer resources.

I get the same feeling when thinking about fast food restaurants turning a profit and then usually there is some element I don’t understand like McDonalds land investment play that justifies weaker operational margins. It’s probably going to work out fine but we are too far removed to intuitively get why.
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