The last time the world had an intelligentsia of this magnitude, the Tsarist State fell.
Elite Overproduction
21–30 of 100 posts
Re: Elite Overproduction
#22In the Turchin model of societal collapse, discussing elite overproduction alone is not helpful at all. The model calls for 3 pillars:
- elite overproduction and limited job opportunities
- wealth pump and inequality
- declining of popular wellbeing and growing resentment
Thus, it only makes sense to consider elite overproduction within this framework.
Re: Elite Overproduction
#23Yeah society needs to be able to allow for this In Machiavelli's view. whoever desires to establish a kingdom or principality where liberty and equality to prevail, will equally fail, unless he withdraws from that general equality a number of the boldest and most ambitious spirits, and makes gentlemen of them not merely in name but in fact, by giving them castles and possessions, as well as money and subjects; so tha…
So essentially, this is why the suburbs of Washington DC are among the highest income regions in the world.
You don’t have to invent new technologies if you simply position yourself next to halls of power and the money printer.
Re: Elite Overproduction
#24I associate this phrase with losers and people trying to sabotage the US. You know who is not wringing their hands about “elite overproduction”? China, who are pumping out tons of smart and capable STEM PhDs, and have in a relatively short time caught up to and in some cases surpassed the US in production of scientific output and technology.
China itself has a PhD and academics glut:
https://www.economist.com/china/2025/11/19/china-has-too-man...
Or maybe the Economist is "trying to sabotage China"?
Re: Elite Overproduction
#25I'm one of those people that goes by the "all models are wrong, but some models are useful" saying. I'm sure the "elite overproduction" model is mostly wrong. But I also think it is an interesting/useful way to look at some things happening in society recently. Certainly, you can think of the recent "cancel culture" phenomena as a great way to remove elites to make room for new ones. ( Maybe you could argue that some…
> DEI -- along with hiring quotas -- tended to bring new "officials" at companies and government orgs ("head of diversity") which is another great way of "creating" more elites.
If anything, it's a way of placating existing elites.
The elite overproduction idea is that there is a surplus of people who feel that they should have an elite status compared to reasonably available elite positions.
Creating additional managerial positions is a way to attempt to absorb this situation.
Re: Elite Overproduction
#26I'm sure the actual theory goes in to a lot of detail in academic papers and whatnot, but the Wiki summary is to vague to be interesting. There is a key question left unanswered. Who are the elite?
Are the elite:
- billionaires?
- top 1,000 Political leadership?
- top Military leadership?
- top 10% of society by wealth?
- top 10% of society by influence?
- smart people?
- hard working people?
- people with valuable economic skills?
- people who went to university and got a degree?
We have no idea from Wikipedia. It might be possible and practical to have an entirely elite society where everyone has a job for all I know reading that. I suspect we're all elite compared to the population of the 1500s.
Just to put my oar in, there is a huge problem when people aren't allowed to better their own lives and also have nothing better to do than sit around discussing how to overthrow the power structure. How that matches up to elite overproduction theories I cannot say.
Re: Elite Overproduction
#27In the Turchin model of societal collapse, discussing elite overproduction alone is not helpful at all. The model calls for 3 pillars: - elite overproduction and limited job opportunities - wealth pump and inequality - declining of popular wellbeing and growing resentment Thus, it only makes sense to consider elite overproduction within this framework.
Isn't this partly what explained the Arab Spring uprising in Egypt?
e.g. the government made university education free, lots of people went to university, there was now excess supply of college educated professionals, this led to unhappy young professionals, in turn led to unrest etc etc.
Re: Elite Overproduction
#28I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, often starting again at the very bottom.
But when this happens to the educated professional class, all hell breaks loose. The system has to change, because it is unthinkable for some professional with a master's degree to become a warehouse sorter.
If AI really makes professional workers obsolete in the future, I fully expect the next revolution to be fronted by that class.
Re: Elite Overproduction
#29hello fans of professor jiang
My take: "Professor" Jiang is a CCP asset meant to destabilise the west. Change my mind.
Re: Elite Overproduction
#30Yeah society needs to be able to allow for this In Machiavelli's view. whoever desires to establish a kingdom or principality where liberty and equality to prevail, will equally fail, unless he withdraws from that general equality a number of the boldest and most ambitious spirits, and makes gentlemen of them not merely in name but in fact, by giving them castles and possessions, as well as money and subjects; so tha…
So essentially, this is why the suburbs of Washington DC are among the highest income regions in the world. You don’t have to invent new technologies if you simply position yourself next to halls of power and the money printer.
Well also think about every fortune 1000 company and the mini fiefdoms that exist in each of them