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Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

anthropic.com

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you are paying for their tokens on top of their salary, right? Right?

You can do a lot with just $20 Codex CLI subscription. Tokens are cheap compared to the $20k we're paying for a dev each month.

Even the $200 claude max monthly subscription is peanuts compared to salary cost.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#202

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

Outside of coding/non-physical areas, the impact can be quite muted. I haven't seen much impact on surgical procedures, for example (but maybe others have?).

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The companies laying off people have no vision. My company is a successful not for profit and we are hiring like crazy. It’s not a software company, but we have always effectively unlimited work. Why would anyone downsize because work is getting done faster? Just do more work, get more done, get better than the competition, get better at delivering your vision. We put profits back in the community and actually make l…

> Just do more work, get more done That's one of the reasons why I am terrified, because it can lead to burn out, and I personally don't like to babysit bunch of agents, because the output doesn't feel "mine", when its not "mine" I don't feel ownership. And I am deliberately hitting the brake from time to time not to increase expectations, because I feel like driving someone else's car while not understanding fully h…

It feels very much like leading a team of junior engineers or even interns who are very fast but have no idea about why we're doing anything. You have to understand the problems you're trying to solve and describe the solutions in a way they can be implemented.

It's not going to be written exactly like you would do it, but that's ok - because you care about the results of the solution and not its precise implementation. At some point you have to make an engineering decision whether to write it yourself for critical bits or allow the agent/junior to get a good enough result.

You're reviewing the code and hand editing anyway, right? You understand the specs even if your agent/junior doesn't, so you can take credit even if you didn't physically write the code. It's the same thing.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#204
I'm an SDE with 1 YOE using AI tools heavily (doing "day's work" in ~2 hrs, perfect reviews). Spending most time on specs/review vs. raw coding. Worried I'm optimising short-term output over long-term skill development. Should I consider pivoting to AI/ML roles? Would love advice from anyone who's hired juniors in the current era.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#205
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

12 months I won't be surprised if there's not much change. But in 5 years? 10? Anything can happen. It is presumptuous to think you can project the future capabilities of this technology and confidently state that labour markets will never be affected.

You prove my point. Guys like you dont get it. You think OAI, Amazon etc can freely put large amounts of money into this for 5-10 years? Lmao - delusional. Investors are impatient. Show huge jumps in revenue this year or you no longer have permission to put monumental amounts of money into this anymore. Short of that they'll just destroy the stock price by selling off; leaving employees who get paid via SBC very unha…

Whatever you want to say about other companies, Amazon (and Meta) is quite willing to spend many years pouring billions into technology they think will pay off later.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#206
post #11
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Work is freezing hiring and upping spending on tokens for everyone. Doesn't mean the two are related. Is AI just the excuse? We've got tariffs, war, uncertainty and other drama non stop.

It's what they're telling us

Do you believe everything management tells you, whether you’re internal or external?

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#207

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

I asked opus 4.6 how to administer an A/B test when data is sparse. My options are to look at conversion rate, look at revenue per customer, or something else. I will get about 10-20k samples, less than that will add to cart, less than that will begin checkout, and even less than that will convert. Opus says I should look at revenue per customers. I don't know the right answer, but I know it is not to look at revenue…

A/B tests are a statistical tool, and outliers will mess with any statistical measure. If your data is especially prone to that you should be using something that accounts for them, and your prompt to Opus should tell it to account for that.

A good way to use AI is to treat it like a brilliant junior. It knows a lot about how things work in general but very little about your specific domain. If your data has a particular shape (e.g lots of orders with a few large orders as outliers) you have to tell it that to improve the results you get back.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#208

I'm an SDE with 1 YOE using AI tools heavily (doing "day's work" in ~2 hrs, perfect reviews). Spending most time on specs/review vs. raw coding. Worried I'm optimising short-term output over long-term skill development. Should I consider pivoting to AI/ML roles? Would love advice from anyone who's hired juniors in the current era.

Data point of 1: Having hired juniors as a startup founder, I need more generalists than AI/ML specialists. AI application work right now is basically standard software engineering - you’re finding clever ways to supply the right context to a model within certain constraints.

No one knows what’s going to happen in the future. Yes there already are fewer SWE jobs than before because of AI, and yes the days of companies hiring new grads in droves at $300k+ packages are likely over. IMO all you can really do is study what you’re interested in, learn it deeply, and do good work with cool people. If unsure, it’s possible to go back to what you were doing before if the new path doesn’t work out.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I asked opus 4.6 how to administer an A/B test when data is sparse. My options are to look at conversion rate, look at revenue per customer, or something else. I will get about 10-20k samples, less than that will add to cart, less than that will begin checkout, and even less than that will convert. Opus says I should look at revenue per customers. I don't know the right answer, but I know it is not to look at revenue…

A/B tests are a statistical tool, and outliers will mess with any statistical measure. If your data is especially prone to that you should be using something that accounts for them, and your prompt to Opus should tell it to account for that. A good way to use AI is to treat it like a brilliant junior. It knows a lot about how things work in general but very little about your specific domain. If your data has a partic…

I did tell it that I expect to see something like a power-law distribution in order value, so I think I pretty much followed your instructions here. Btw, if you do know the right thing to do in my scenario, I'd love to figure it out. This is not my area of expertise, and just figuring it out through articles so far.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. All AI has done for me is give me the power of how good search engines were 10+ years ago, where I could search for something and find actually relevant and helpful info quickly. I've seen lots of people say AI can basically code a project for them. Maybe it can, but that seems to heavily depend on the field. Other than boilerplate code or very generic projects, it's a step above useless imo when it comes to gam…

My experience is the same. There are modest gains compensating for lack of good documentation and the like, but the human bottlenecks in the process aren't useless bureaucracy. Whether or not a feature or a particular UX implementation of it makes sense, these things can't be skipped, sped up or handed off to any AI.

What are these bottlenecks specifically that you feel are essential?

Am trying to compare this to reports that people are not reviewing code any more.

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