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Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#161

Post by bandrami »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #153
bandrami wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK so this comes back to the question I started this subthread with: where is this better software? Why isn't someone selling it to me? I've been told for a year it's coming any day now (though invariably the next month I'm told last month's tools were in fact crap and useless compared to the new generation so I just have to wait for this round to kick in) and at some point I do have to actually see it if you expect…

How would you know if all software written in the last six months shipped X% faster and was Y% better? Why would you think you have your finger on the pulse of general software trends like that when you use the same, what, dozen apps every week? Just looking at my own productivity, as mere sideprojects this month , I've shipped my own terminal app (replaced iTerm2), btrfs+luks NAS system manager, overhauled my macOS…

Right, I'm sympathetic to the idea that LLMs facilitate the creation of software that people previously weren't willing to pay for, but then kind of by definition that's not going to have a big topline economic impact.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#162

Post by tayo42 »

thewebguyd wrote: post #50
bandrami wrote: post #42

I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.

Same here, more or less, in the ops world. Yeah, I use AI but I can't honestly say it's massively improved my productivity or drastically changed my job in any way other than the emails I get from the other managers at my work are now clearly written by AI. I can turn out some scripts a little bit quicker, or find an answer to something a little quicker than googling, but I'm still waiting on others most of the time,…

Ops hasn't been in the crosshairs of Ai yet.

Imo it's only a matter of time as companies start to figure out how to use ai. Companies don't seem to have real plans yet and everyone is figuring out ai in general out.

Soon though I will think agents start popping up, things like first line response to pages, executing automation

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#163

Post by truetraveller »

throwaw12 wrote: post #154

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

You were probably deficient in RESEARCH skills before. No offense to you, since I was also like this once. LLMs research and put the results on the plate. Yes, for people who were deficient in research skills, I can see 2-3x improvements.

Note1: I have "expert" level research skills. But LLMs still help me in research, but the boost is probably 1.2x max. But

Note2: By research, I mean googling, github search, forum search, etc. And quickly testing using jsfiddle/codepen, etc.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#164

Post by therealdrag0 »

throwaw12 wrote: post #154

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

I can only explain it by people not having used Agentic tools and or only having tried it 9 months ago for a day before giving up or having such strict coding style preferences they burn time adjusting generated code to their preferences and blaming the AI even though they’re non-functional changes and they didn’t bother to encode them into rules.

The productivity gains are blatantly obvious at this point. Even in large distributed code bases. From jr to senior engineer.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#165

Post by Tanjreeve »

bandrami wrote: post #136
nikkwong wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having the productivity "drop through the floor" is a bit hyperbolic, no? Humans are still reviewing the PRs before code merge at least at my company (for the most part, for now).

I don't know that it's likely but it's certainly a plausible outcome. If tooling keeps getting built for this and the financial music stops it's going to take a while for everybody to get back up to speed Remember this famously happened before, in the 1970s

There's an actual working product now, albeit one which is currently loss leading. In software world at least there is definitely enough value for it to be used even if it's just better search engine. I'm not sure why it would disappear if the financial music stops as opposed to being commoditised.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#166

Post by aurareturn »

throwaw12 wrote: post #154

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

  People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing?
Believe it or not, I still know many devs who do not use any agents. They're still using free ChatGPT copy and paste.

I'm going to guess that many people on HN are also on the "free ChatGPT isn't that good at programming" train.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#167

Post by throwaw12 »

truetraveller wrote: post #163
throwaw12 wrote: post #154

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

You were probably deficient in RESEARCH skills before. No offense to you, since I was also like this once. LLMs research and put the results on the plate. Yes, for people who were deficient in research skills, I can see 2-3x improvements. Note1: I have "expert" level research skills. But LLMs still help me in research, but the boost is probably 1.2x max. But Note2: By research, I mean googling, github search, forum s…

no worries, I do not get offended quickly.

But I also think you are overestimating your RESEARCH skills, even if you are very good at research, I am sure you can't read 25 files in parallel, summarize them (even if its missing some details) in 1 minute and then come up with somewhat working solution in the next 2 minutes.

I am pretty sure, humans can't comprehend reading 25 code files with each having at least 400 lines of non-boilerplate code in 2 minutes. LLM can do it and its very very good at summarizing.

I can even steer its summarizing skills by prompting where to focus on when its reading files (because now I can iterate 2-3 times for each RESEARCH task and improve my next attempt based on shortcomings in the previous attempt)

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#168

Post by geuis »

I really hate to say it, but this article in particular needs a tldr. The author does a web recipe take. Don't put the actual factual info upfront and require parsing through everything to find anything important.

Kinda done with this.

If you have something important to say, say it up front and back it up with literature later.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#169

Post by dataflow »

aurareturn wrote: post #166
throwaw12 wrote: post #154

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Believe it or not, I still know many devs who do not use any agents. They're still using free ChatGPT copy and paste. I'm going to guess that many people on HN are also on the "free ChatGPT isn't that good at programming" train.

Which one would you recommend as the best right now? Claude Code?

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#170

Post by throwaw12 »

aurareturn wrote: post #166
throwaw12 wrote: post #154

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…

People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Believe it or not, I still know many devs who do not use any agents. They're still using free ChatGPT copy and paste. I'm going to guess that many people on HN are also on the "free ChatGPT isn't that good at programming" train.

> They're still using free ChatGPT copy and paste

Probably that's the reason why some people are sure their job is still safe.

Nature of job is changing rapidly

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