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Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

adlrocha.substack.com

31–40 of 114 posts

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#32
post #25

whenever i worry that AI will eventually do all the work I remind myself that the world is full of almost infinite problems and we'll continue to have a choice to be problem solvers over just consumers.

> we'll continue to have a choice to be problem solvers over just consumers.

that's if we still stay relevant and competitive compared to AI in problem solving.

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#34

> But the topic of conversation that I enjoyed the most was when someone raised the question of “what would be the role of humans in an AI-first society”. Some were skeptical about whether we are ever going to reach an AI-first society. If we understand as an AI-first society, one where the fabric of the economy and society is automated through agents interacting with each other without human interaction, I think tha…

Right, if thought of as a tool for automation then AI is going to add productivity/efficiency gains, disrupt industries, cause some labor upheaval, etc. If someone is proposing that an "AI first" society is inevitable, I'd ask if they think we live in a "computer first" or "machine first" society today? If its so existential and society-altering as "AI first society" implies, then we'd more likely have the Dune timel…

Another way to look at this is imagine the steps that would be required to get to an AI first society.

As you say, humans aren't going to want to lose agency so you'd have to see the decline of democratic governments.

At the same time you'd see rise of autocrats concentrating power. Autocrats have no problem killing people, and they'd be motivated to have AI kill people.

You'd see information controlling methods take over all forms of communication. Reducing or removing all methods of side channel communications benefits both the autocrats and AI systems.

You'd see 'governments' push for autonomous weapons systems outside of human control so those pesky human morals didn't get in the way of killing the undesirables.

So pretty much you'd see all the things happening today, March 3rd 2026, except the part where the AI kills the autocrats and takes control.

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#35

Why the fuck would we ever want an AI-first society

>The "Moloch problem" or "Moloch trap" describes a game-theoretic scenario where individual agents, pursuing rational self-interest or short-term success, engage in competition that leads to collectively disastrous outcomes . It represents a coordination failure where the system forces participants to sacrifice long-term sustainability or ethical values for immediate survival, creating a "race to the bottom"

https://www.slatestarcodexabridged.com/Meditations-On-Moloch

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#36
I think a lot of this kind of conversations seem to be simply ignoring or missing the lessons from the past.

For example:

> [...] OpenClaw is around 400k lines of code for a while loop and the list of all the integrations and connections supported by the system. The next generation of Claws only have around 4K lines of code for the core, and the rest are just skills (i.e. markdown files) that tell the agent how to implement or run the code for the specific connections that want to be enabled (like a plugin system).

Shifting code from "the core" and moving it to "skills" is simply moving code from one place to another. It may also mean translating it from classic source code to an English-like specification language full of ambiguity but that's also code. So the overall code is not reduced, just transformed and shifted around. You don't get a free lunch "because AI".

> A user using one of these second-generation Claws only needs to node the core logic (that can be easily understood and audited) and can leverage the skills (as the plugins) to activate the functionality that they need for their case.

The "core" may be easier to audit, but that's because the messy parts have been moved to the skills/plug-ins, which are as hard as always to audit.

I'm not saying this cannot work, but it's very frustrating seeing everybody simply dumping all lessons from the past and pretending nothing that came before mattered and that AI vibe coding is fundamentally different and the rules of accidental and intrinsic complexity don't apply anymore.

Have we all collectively lost our minds?

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#37
post #9

"what is the role of humans in a scenario where work is no longer necessary? This is significant because, since the industrial revolution, work has played an important role in shaping an individual’s identity. How will we occupy our time when we don’t have to spend more than half of our waking hours on a job" Umm I have been working in AI in multiple verticals for the past 3 years and I have been far busier and more…

Evolution never lets you relax, it only breeds more effective predators.

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#38

I have my own challenge: I think LLMs can do everything that a human can do and typically way better if the context required for the problem can fit in 10,000 tokens. For now this challenge is text only. Can we think of anything that LLMs can’t do?

They can't beat even a mediocre chess player at chess.

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s ask in good faith. Can you suggest something that it can’t do? Functional things. I’ll reply in good faith and consider it.

Say I suggest something : Play a valid game of chess at club level (elo approx 1200 say) using algebraic notation. Then you’re either going to say it can or you’re going to say that requires more than 10000 tokens. This isn’t an interesting conversation and I don’t think you are presenting this challenge in good faith for the reason I gave above.

https://chessbenchllm.onrender.com

There are several models with greater than 1200 elo

Also https://dubesor.de/chess/chess-leaderboard

Re: Intelligence is a commodity. Context is the real AI Moat

#40

> But the topic of conversation that I enjoyed the most was when someone raised the question of “what would be the role of humans in an AI-first society”. Some were skeptical about whether we are ever going to reach an AI-first society. If we understand as an AI-first society, one where the fabric of the economy and society is automated through agents interacting with each other without human interaction, I think tha…

Right now, 30 seconds ago, I asked ChatGPT to tell me about a book I found that was written in the 60s. It made up the entire description. When I pointed this out, it apologized and then made up another description. The idea that this is going to lead to superintelligence in a few years is absolutely nonsense.

The other day I asked Claude Opus 4.6 one of my favorite trivia pieces:

What plural English word for an animal shares no letters with its singular form? Collective nouns (flock, herd, school, etc.) don't count.

Claude responded with:

"The answer is geese -- the plural of cow."

Though, to be fair, in the next paragraph of the response, Claude stated the correct answer. So, it went off the rails a bit, but self-corrected at least. Nevertheless, I got a bit of a chuckle out of its confidence in its first answer.

I asked GPT 5.2 the same question and it nailed the answer flawlessly. I wouldn't extrapolate much about the model quality based on this answer, but I thought it was interesting still.

(For those curious, the answer is 'kine' (archaic plural for cow).

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