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Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

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Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#201

Post by acjohnson55 »

csmpltn wrote: post #130
1a527dd5 wrote: post #86

I wonder how old the rest of the commentators are. I watched the Shock and Awe campaign. I watched Saddam fall. I remember thinking this is great. Years later, I understand it was a complete folly. Removing Saddam in itself was good but what it did the wider region was not good.

You seriously don’t think Iraq is in a better place today than it has ever been? You miss Saddam?

No one misses Saddam.

Parts of Iraq are much better off, like Kurdistan. Other parts were utterly devastated by our operations, insurgency, sectarian violence, ISIS, and so on. Some people had religious freedom and now live in areas under theocratic control.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#202

Post by pjc50 »

avazhi wrote: post #180
thomassmith65 wrote: post #12

The Iranian diaspora around the world is celebrating. Here's the scene in Berlin: https://youtu.be/NSbx_0mtk80?si=MJ_Bfvx8gVd1P1mm They've waited a very long time for this moment!

Aside from a few members of the IRGC, everybody who has been paying attention for the past 40 years is celebrating. Taking out both Maduro and Khomeini over the course of a few months without a single American or Israeli casualty is peak.

There were allegedly 7 US personnel injured during the Maduro raid.

Decapitation airstrikes have been possible for decades. I suppose now we find out whether that was a good idea or not. Slightly surprised the Iran strike worked, if you remember the hunts for Saddam and Bin Laden.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#203

Post by throwawayheui57 »

garbawarb wrote: post #50

To any Iranians of HN: how do you feel about the current situation, and what's the sentiment of Iranians abroad?

Iranian here! Lived most of my life inside Iran. I don't view US's actions as a favor to common Iranians. That's naive. No one wants war and bombing of civilians. Our misery is caused by a mix of religious extremism, theocracy and foreign intervention (in the past, Mossadegh, etc.) among other things. First and foremost I hold the regime responsible. For most of my life, I witnessed firsthand how they pushed us step by step closer to confrontation with the US, yet there's no single bomb shelter in Tehran or any major city for people to run to after 47 years of this shit. How would you feel in this situation?

Their opposition to Israel is not from a humanitarian and moral standpoint, it's purely religious. They have no shame admitting this. You just have to listen to one of the 5 state TV channels in Farsi. I even think Palestinians would fare better if not for these extremists on either side!

All that said, the supreme leader is the one who commands the murder of innocents in the streets, so he had it coming. Good riddance and he died like the rat that he was. But as to what happens next? No one knows. Also I personally don't think US is doing this because they want Iran's oil. I believe they want to put pressure on China to not get Iran's cheap (under sanctions) oil. That seems more plausible to me.

*typo edit

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#204

Post by tim333 »

orthogonal_cube wrote: post #135
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years

Removal of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control. I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.

Trump seems to have thought it through a bit. Recent post:

>...This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country. We are hearing that many of their IRGC, Military, and other Security and Police Forces, no longer want to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us. As I said last night, “Now they can have Immunity, later they only get Death!” Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves...

The merge peacefully or die thing may motivate them.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#205

Post by alephnerd »

pjc50 wrote: post #202
avazhi wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from a few members of the IRGC, everybody who has been paying attention for the past 40 years is celebrating. Taking out both Maduro and Khomeini over the course of a few months without a single American or Israeli casualty is peak.

There were allegedly 7 US personnel injured during the Maduro raid. Decapitation airstrikes have been possible for decades. I suppose now we find out whether that was a good idea or not. Slightly surprised the Iran strike worked, if you remember the hunts for Saddam and Bin Laden.

> if you remember the hunts for Saddam and Bin Laden.

We didn't have Project Maven 25 years ago, and our leadership in the early 2000s were committed to boots-on-the-ground nation-building due to the afterglow of the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#207

Post by xannabxlle »

js4ever wrote: post #159
Taek wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Agreed, it's a propaganda bot. But with Khamenei dead and Iran terrorist gov down we might have less of those paid actors here and everywhere on internet because their source of income will be gone

"Iran terrorist gov" so unserious. Yesterday's terrorist is today's US appointed leader. See: Syria. From US bounty to US approved. You can just as easily see Israel as the terrorist government attacking Iran unprovoked. They have been claiming Iran has been 2 weeks away from a nuke for decades.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#208

Post by avaika »

1a527dd5 wrote: post #86

I wonder how old the rest of the commentators are. I watched the Shock and Awe campaign. I watched Saddam fall. I remember thinking this is great. Years later, I understand it was a complete folly. Removing Saddam in itself was good but what it did the wider region was not good.

> Removing Saddam in itself was good but what it did the wider region was not good.

I believe this is the legacy of leaders like Saddam. They build a very messy future for their countries. Whenever such a leader is gone, somebody has to take over power. Dictators tend to concentrate as much power in their hands as possible. Forced removal of such a leader might accelerate and / or destabilize power transition. Which might end up in a very messy scenario.

Absolute power transition worked well with monarchy in the past, cause everybody knew who would be the next guy, there were rules and procedures. With dictatorship often times there are no rules. So power transition might turn into a complete chaos even with a natural death of a dictator.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#209

Post by Bender »

Taek wrote: post #69
xannabxlle wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

I'm not picking a side, just saying people often create throw-away accounts for political discussions. But yeah an account can be anything. One never knows the underlying agenda people truly have.

My evil agenda is to encourage people to watch every season of Futurama.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#210

Post by alephnerd »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #190
reliabilityguy wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also a possibility of a Venezuela-style cooperation.

Adding Iranian oil back to the market will lower prices everywhere, including Russia. I'm not so sure the extra-heavy Venezuelan oil will be affected as much. Anyone know?

India used to use Venezuelan crude before the 2019 sanctions [0][1]

India only shifted to using Russian oil in 2022 [2] after Venezuelan [3] and Iranian [4] oil sanctions were enacted, which was when both began increasing engagement with China.

It's a similar story for South Korea [5] and Japan [6].

This helps reduce prices for ONG, as India is shifting back to Venezuelan crude which gives slack which South Korea and Japan can take advantage of, as India, Japan, and South Korea represent 3 of the 5 largest oil consumers globally.

[0] - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/ongc-awaits-instr...

[1] - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/reliance-venezuel...

[2] - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65553920

[3] - https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/india-and-venezuela-gro...

[4] - https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-tightens-sanctions-...

[5] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/13/south-korean-oil-refine...

[6] - https://mei.edu/ar/publication/japan-and-middle-east-navigat...

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