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OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

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Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#51

Post by gtowey »

parineum wrote: post #43
gtowey wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have come to the opinion that every successful tech company is basically just an arbitrage scheme to avoid regulations and extract value based on that advantage. Airbnb for unlicensed hotels. Uber for unlicensed taxis. Amazon for whitewashing fraudulent products. Bitcoin for unlicensed securities and laundering money. The pattern is upsetting.

That's what happens when the majority of people don't actually support the regulations. If people thought it was wrong to be an unlicensed airbnb or uber, they wouldn't use them. In reality, those regulations are mostly protection rackets and most people don't care about violating them.

I disagree. When you give people strong economic incentives to ignore morality, some people will. Not all, but enough to make a hash of things. In any population there will be some people who will do things they know are wrong just to get ahead.

For Airbnb landlords I'm sure the thought process goes like " I'm just one person so I can't be having enough of an impact to be a problem. And besides, I need the money." But then enough people pile on and in aggregate they ruin the local housing market. But nobody thinks that they themselves are culpable

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#52

Post by jquery »

parineum wrote: post #43
gtowey wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have come to the opinion that every successful tech company is basically just an arbitrage scheme to avoid regulations and extract value based on that advantage. Airbnb for unlicensed hotels. Uber for unlicensed taxis. Amazon for whitewashing fraudulent products. Bitcoin for unlicensed securities and laundering money. The pattern is upsetting.

That's what happens when the majority of people don't actually support the regulations. If people thought it was wrong to be an unlicensed airbnb or uber, they wouldn't use them. In reality, those regulations are mostly protection rackets and most people don't care about violating them.

This is certainly the most uncharitable way to think about it.

I see a prisoner’s dilemma where people often support regulations even if on an individual basis they would personally violate them, because they prefer living in a the less chaotic society. For example anti-dumping regulations… the expected value for any given individual is +EV, but when everyone is dumping, it’s a big -EV

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#53

Post by jquery »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #49
lokar wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People were (and mostly still are) very opposed to Airbnb rentals in their neighborhood.

... but the customers of these Airbnb rentals are not. :-)

People support anti-pollution measures yet corporations still choose to pollute. Curious.

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#54

Post by BostonFern »

parineum wrote: post #43
gtowey wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have come to the opinion that every successful tech company is basically just an arbitrage scheme to avoid regulations and extract value based on that advantage. Airbnb for unlicensed hotels. Uber for unlicensed taxis. Amazon for whitewashing fraudulent products. Bitcoin for unlicensed securities and laundering money. The pattern is upsetting.

That's what happens when the majority of people don't actually support the regulations. If people thought it was wrong to be an unlicensed airbnb or uber, they wouldn't use them. In reality, those regulations are mostly protection rackets and most people don't care about violating them.

That's interpreting a failure to fight to preserve ethics as an internal rejection when it could be explained by a lack of fighting spirit, either because the fight seems impossible or the given hill not worth dying on. Another interpretation would be a comfort-oriented, avoidant, and possibly cynical culture facing a power imbalance.

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#55

Post by Havoc »

Good.

I do hope corporations in general take a harder stance on this. From a society perspective people with inside knowledge fleecing randoms is not a win. We've got that somewhat under control on the stock exchange, but have this absurd situation where on prediction markets it is a free for all and everyone pretends this is fine.

I also think corporations should distance themselves from individuals willing to fleece randoms. Trading in general is very wild west survival of the fittest but active exploitation of insider knowledge speak of very poor morale character

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#56

Post by iso1631 »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #49
lokar wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People were (and mostly still are) very opposed to Airbnb rentals in their neighborhood.

... but the customers of these Airbnb rentals are not. :-)

People whose houses are robbed are against robbery, people who rob houses are very much for it.

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#57

Post by somenameforme »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #27
7777777phil wrote: post #19

77 suspicious positions across 60 wallets, 13 brand-new accounts appearing 40 hours before the browser launch. First confirmed case of a major tech company firing over prediction market trades. I wrote about why prediction markets have a structural insider trading problem that nobody's solved yet: https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of...

Prediction markets exist to bypass gambling restrictions and monetize insider trading. It isn't a problem, it is their raison d'etre.

Would you not say that somebody could equally cynically describe options trading in this way?

Prediction markets are very valuable because they provide information on issues that's generally much more accurate than alternative sources, such as polls. For instance Polymarket predicted 94% of the results for the 2024 election a month out, including the presidential. It can also provide more information than the news. For instance the chances of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31st just skyrocketed up to 78%. That tells me far more than the various news sites minute by minute coverage.

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#58

Post by Natfan »

logicchains wrote: post #37
gtowey wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have come to the opinion that every successful tech company is basically just an arbitrage scheme to avoid regulations and extract value based on that advantage. Airbnb for unlicensed hotels. Uber for unlicensed taxis. Amazon for whitewashing fraudulent products. Bitcoin for unlicensed securities and laundering money. The pattern is upsetting.

From an economic perspective the majority of those regulations destroy economic value and those companies are unlocking value by finding clever ways around them.

i can find clever ways around d crippling debt, its called robbing a bank at gunpoint

Re: OpenAI fires an employee for prediction market insider trading

#59

Post by jacquesm »

jquery wrote: post #52
parineum wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what happens when the majority of people don't actually support the regulations. If people thought it was wrong to be an unlicensed airbnb or uber, they wouldn't use them. In reality, those regulations are mostly protection rackets and most people don't care about violating them.

This is certainly the most uncharitable way to think about it. I see a prisoner’s dilemma where people often support regulations even if on an individual basis they would personally violate them, because they prefer living in a the less chaotic society. For example anti-dumping regulations… the expected value for any given individual is +EV, but when everyone is dumping, it’s a big -EV

The perfect example is speed limits: everybody thinks they're good and yet they all seem to classify all other drivers into two categories: slowpokes and maniacs.

Nobody seems to be able to agree on what a responsible set of rules is around the speed of vehicles.

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