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> The employee, she said, “used confidential OpenAI information in connection with external prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket).”
Note that “insider trading” is not illegal on prediction markets. The particular issue here is that the employee “disclosed” confidential information on a public forum by influencing the prices assigned to certain outcomes by prediction markets.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't really understand. You can create wallets at will. What would be the value of one that someone else happened to create?
If it has a small transaction history it obscure the owners intentions. An address created right before a wager is obviously for one purpose.
Although I would argue that even this doesn't have much value. It's not a big problem that people know "there exists an insider at OpenAI". There are plenty of employees there that shield you from being discovered.
In fact it would be so difficult to find this person among them, assuming the most basic opsec, that I'm highly skeptical they actually fired anyone. I would sooner assume this is just an announcement designed to discourage the behavior, since no specifics are provided.
Interestingly Kalshi has ‘banned’ insider trading, whilst polymarkets often tweets that some of their users must have inside information https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-trading-violation-enforceme... https://x.com/polymarketmoney/status/2001056273500954784?s=4...
A fun aside: this person obviously created a bunch of new Bitcoin accounts to hide their activity. It makes you think that if you were able to surreptitiously add malicious side channel software into a popular npm package that you wouldn't just need to hunt for crypto wallets with balances. You could also probably find a market for crypto wallets with small balances or zero balances. The history and date of creation…
tell me you don’t understand crypto without telling me you don’t understand crypto.
EDIT: I am wrong, see children > The employee, she said, “used confidential OpenAI information in connection with external prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket).” Note that “insider trading” is not illegal on prediction markets. The particular issue here is that the employee “disclosed” confidential information on a public forum by influencing the prices assigned to certain outcomes by prediction markets.
Interestingly Kalshi has ‘banned’ insider trading, whilst polymarkets often tweets that some of their users must have inside information https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-trading-violation-enforceme... https://x.com/polymarketmoney/status/2001056273500954784?s=4...
Manifold actually explicitly encourages insider trading, arguing that it leads to more accurate pricing. This was possibly defensible back when it was a cute funtime project run by a Bay Area polycule, but it’s probably going to get them in deep shit sooner or later, even though they don’t even use real-money betting.
EDIT: I am wrong, see children > The employee, she said, “used confidential OpenAI information in connection with external prediction markets (e.g. Polymarket).” Note that “insider trading” is not illegal on prediction markets. The particular issue here is that the employee “disclosed” confidential information on a public forum by influencing the prices assigned to certain outcomes by prediction markets.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If it has a small transaction history it obscure the owners intentions. An address created right before a wager is obviously for one purpose.
Right but if you have the forethought to go buy such a wallet, you could just make one yourself in advance and create a transaction history. Although I would argue that even this doesn't have much value. It's not a big problem that people know "there exists an insider at OpenAI". There are plenty of employees there that shield you from being discovered. In fact it would be so difficult to find this person among them,…
I wrote about why prediction markets have a structural insider trading problem that nobody's solved yet: https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of...
That’s pretty common, you may think you own the data you work on, but you don’t. It’s proprietary confidential.
It's called AI.