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The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

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Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#191
post #110

There seems to be an uptick around 1am on Polymarket. https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by

Due to distance planes need to take off many hours before the bombs drop. You can get an edge here by moving your ass somewhere where you can see the planes take off, maybe a team with people at multiple locations - boats near the aircraft carrier, near military bases in Israel, ...

Sure, it could be that. My money is on something a bit simpler.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#192
post #77

Feb 25: >White House officials believe ‘the politics are a lot better’ if Israel strikes Iran first >As the administration mulls military action in Iran, officials argue it’d be best if Israel makes the first move. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/25/white-house-politic...

I’m honestly perplexed. I had anticipated a scenario like “the US feared Iran was unstable and attacked to protect nuclear material”. It seems this would give them reasonable cover. I don’t see how Israel going along helps

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#193
post #53

I was discussing this with a friend today. It just feels like there's no point to these actions. Not in the sense of "I don't ideologically agree with our decision to do this," but in the sense of, "I do not see how this accomplishes any ideological or practical goal." What are they trying for? Regime change in Iran? No more Iranian nuclear program? There barely was one before. Keeping Israel safe? It's been an open…

The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state. Iran has negotiated like no one will ever attack it, and that was a correct assumption for decades However, due to Iran's overly aggressive use of questionably rational proxies, Hamas has dragged it into a regional conflict where it lost most of its proxies power. After the last war, it also is no longer a threshold state, so the only leverage…

This comment is so wrong. Trump's strikes won't "prevent" anything, it's domestic posturing to look tough. You cannot bomb your way into regime change.

> After the last war, it also is no longer a threshold state

That's also wrong. Trump claimed Iran's enrichment capabilities were totally destroyed, but they weren't.

> In this situation it is a fair request by the US to sign a nuclear deal

America already had a good deal. Trump got rid of it.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#194

Regardless of how it ends, and it can go both ways, we're witnessing history here. This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia and China, mostly for military technology and oil. Hope it's not a start of WW3.

No it's not. This is an air strike campaign, no boots on the ground. It'll end in two weeks. There is no chance China or Russia get involved, like last time, so "WW3" is completely non-credible.

While it's possible, it's unlikely. Iranian regime is in a corner - they have no choice anymore but to escalate, and escalate quickly.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#195

What an utter betrayal of no war by DJT. This is the final straw. Era of Trump is dead, we are back to neoconservative era. I guess Adelsons are too hard to say no to.

It’s still pretty unclear how in the US is planning to go. For example, manifold still rates the chance that Iran’s regime falls this year at 46%, which should be a given if the US put boots on the ground. https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fal...

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#196

Regardless of how it ends, and it can go both ways, we're witnessing history here. This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia and China, mostly for military technology and oil. Hope it's not a start of WW3.

No it's not. This is an air strike campaign, no boots on the ground. It'll end in two weeks. There is no chance China or Russia get involved, like last time, so "WW3" is completely non-credible.

There might be boots on the ground eventually given Trump's speech.

>The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war, but we’re doing this not for now. We’re doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission

Very foreboding.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#198
Ever since the ICE stuff I've been desperate to find a way to not pay my taxes - even if it means donating 2, 3x, hell 4x my tax bill to somewhere else. Obviously it's basically impossible to do this (especially if your income is all self employment income) outside of just spending every penny you earn on something that could be viably considered a business expense. So I'm wondering if I should just straight up stop working until I can relinquish my USA citizenship.

Spend down my savings and assets till I have almost nothing to exit tax, exit, and then start working again.

I don't want to fund the bombing of strangers I have no quarrel with.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#199

Regardless of how it ends, and it can go both ways, we're witnessing history here. This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia and China, mostly for military technology and oil. Hope it's not a start of WW3.

> This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine war is 1M+ combat casualties deep and is nowhere near finished. You are out of touch.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#200
Even if you don't support US & IL standing in the frontlines against the terror regime, at least pray for the freedom of the people of Iran, 90m people held hostages by the regime. If you are pro-peace, do not be hypocrite, some wars are needed to defeat evil.
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