Earlier quoted context omitted.
Never believe anything sam says
Never believe anything says
Sam in very particular here. This guy will say whatever for status and "power".
OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
341–350 of 620 posts
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#342Earlier quoted context omitted.
But why are these users sticking to ChatGPT specifically ? If it’s not the quality of their answers ?
They'll stay as long as it's cheap. The moment any attempt is made to raise the price, the number will crater.
Also when they start seeing real ads.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#343$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…
> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…
> 99% more efficient every 3 years
It's 2x efficiency. Then I'd take 50% less power instead of ridiculous 99% less power.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#344Depressing to see trillions sloshing around, and yet no jobs to be found.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#345Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
yeah, ~1B active users + when non-tech people think of AI, they think of "ChatGPT" not many of the competitors.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#346Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you’re just describing how it’s circular. It’s like Toys R Us not having enough money to pay Mattel for Barbie dolls and telling Mattel they can have partial ownership of the company if they just supply them with some more toys. But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. Toys R Us continues selling toys faster and faster despite a lack of profit, m…
OK, so absolutely good faith here what is the end game? Obviously, there’s a scenario of super power AI and then it’s a matter of continuing course. Electricity and silicon. What if you are right, and the scaling doesn’t work. It is too much power, time, hardware to improve… does openAI fold? Do they just actual use the models they have? Does everyone just decide that AI didn’t work and go back 5 years like it didn’t…
Why so extreme, most likely just AI winter for a while, then when tech and societies has caught up, the advancements begins again.
It is not like we threw away the dotcom advances, they were just put on hold for a while..
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#347Earlier quoted context omitted.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
But why are these users sticking to ChatGPT specifically ? If it’s not the quality of their answers ?
for 99% of normies ChatGPT is the only LLM provider they know or have heard of.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#348Earlier quoted context omitted.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
Not GP, and not saying I agree with them, but it may be worth remembering that Netscape had 90% market share at one point. Active user count may not be the moat you imagine.
Adoption of web browsers was also much lower when Netscape was dominant. 90% marketshare is less meaningful if you're only 1% of the way to the potential market size. Peeling away users who talk to ChatGPT every day is very possible, but harder than getting someone whose never used an LLM before (but does use your OS, browser, phone...) to try yours first.
I think the even better analogy than browsers is search engines. There aren't any network effects or platform lock-in, but there is potential for a data flywheel, building a brand, and just getting users in the habit of using you. The results won't necessarily turn out the same - I think OpenAI's edge on results quality is a lot less than early Google over its competitors - but the shape of the competition is similar.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#349Earlier quoted context omitted.
The "circular investment" is mostly start up companies using their stocks instead of cash to pay for server hardware and cloud computing. There is a few extra steps in between that make things look weird and convoluted, but the end results is really just big companies giving hardware and getting shares of ai companies in exchange for it.
Nope wrong framing. Nvidia is investing assets into OAI - it has to. Because OAI needs to become successful for Nvidia's story in the long-term to play out, to justify its current stock price.
You say calling it circular is wrong framing and the immediately proceeded to describe a circle.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#350Earlier quoted context omitted.
They'll stay as long as it's cheap. The moment any attempt is made to raise the price, the number will crater.
Maybe: “ok I’m lazy, the app is preinstalled on my phone and it’s free, there are some ads but ok”
Isn't that the 'bull case' for Gemini?