331–340 of 620 posts
Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
But why are these users sticking to ChatGPT specifically ? If it’s not the quality of their answers ?
Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Once they "reach AGI", will they have a big party on a carrier with a "Mission Accomplished" banner?
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Building things at a mature company with a market is a lot different than hacking together your own tools. There are a lot more people you can let down at scale.
$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…
> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…
The LLM industry has only be around for like 4 years. Extrapolating trends from that is pretty naive.
This time, does the $100B actually exist? https://www.inc.com/leila-sheridan/nvidia-is-wavering-on-its... What's the statue of limitations for securities fraud? The current administration won't last forever.
> This time, does the $100B actually exist? Nope. That 100B is in "promises" for over several years in total. They have $15B out of the $50B from Amazon right now. > The current administration won't last forever. This is why OpenAI must IPO and when it does, I won't be surprised that a crash is followed up before 2030. By then, they will "announce" "AGI" (Which actually means an IPO)
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Comparing OpenAI and WeWork is a nonsensical perspective. OpenAI is shipping the most revolutionary product in a generation, with 800 million monthly active users. It's the fastest revenue ramp ever, at incredible scale -- $20B+ ARR. These are real fundamentals. They matter. And the cost of inference is coming down all the time. WeWork was a short-term/long-term lease arbitrage business. The two are nothing alike.
It’s one of the worst takes I’ve heard. OpenAI creates the fastest growing app ever, spawns a revolution bigger than the internet, and this guys take is they are like WeWork…
$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…
> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…
AI stopped progressing, or LLMs? I really dislike people throwing the term AI around.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But why are these users sticking to ChatGPT specifically ? If it’s not the quality of their answers ?
They'll stay as long as it's cheap. The moment any attempt is made to raise the price, the number will crater.
Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.