Ok, I'm getting out.
OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
321–330 of 620 posts
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#322Earlier quoted context omitted.
Once they "reach AGI", will they have a big party on a carrier with a "Mission Accomplished" banner?
[flagged]
I’m convinced these “guys you gotta believe me I’m a seasoned veteran and this shit is the real deal” posts that show up in every AI thread are either coming from Sam Altman or a bot.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#323Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#324Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#325$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…
> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering.
This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think.
Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power.
The number of applications where AI is already "good enough" keeps growing every day. If the cost goes down 99% every three years, it doesn't take long until you can make a ton of money on those applications.
If AI stopped progressing today, it would take probably a decade or longer for us to take full advantage of it. So there is tons of forward looking revenue that isn't counted yet.
For the foreseeable future, there are MANY MANY uses of models where a company would not want to host its own models and would be GLAD to pay an 4-5x cost for someone else to host the model and hardware for them.
I'm as bullish on OpenAI being "worth" $730B as I was on Snap being worth what it IPO'd for - which it's still down about 80% (AFTER inflation, or about ~95% adjusting for gold inflation).
But guess what - these are MINIMUM valuations based on 50-80% margins - i.e. they're really getting about ~$30B - the rest is market value of hardware and hosting. OpenAI could be worth 80% less, and they could still make a metric fuck-ton of money selling at IPO with a $1T+ market cap to speculative morons easily...
Realistically, very rich people with high risk tolerance are saying that they think OpenAI has a MINIMUM value of ~$100B. That seems very reasonable given the risk tolerance and wealth.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#326I love how people think the company that basically invented ai is going out of business. Clearly OpenAI is a massive success and will continue to be
"Basically invented AI" by running on principles that Minsky wrote about in the 80s, and improvements Google developed in the early 10s, on bigger and bigger computers. But "Basically invented".
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#327Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#328Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
But why are these users sticking to ChatGPT specifically ?
If it’s not the quality of their answers ?
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#329Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
How do you think this compares to Google and the AI search?
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#330If OpenAI is Pied Piper, who is Russ Hanneman in all this?
I would vote for Once-CEO-Then-not-then-CEO-Again Hypeman Sam Altman