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How will OpenAI compete?

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Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#461

Post by randusername »

sdrinf wrote: post #249
daxfohl wrote: post #130

I just wonder how long it'll take local models to be good enough for 99% of use cases. It seems like it has to happen sooner or later. My hunch is that in five years we'll look back and see current OpenAI as something like a 1970's VAX system. Once PCs could do most of what they could, nobody wanted a VAX anymore. I have a hard time imagining that all the big players today will survive that shift. (And if that partic…

Taking the opposite side of that bet, here is why: * even if an openweight model appears on huggingface today, exceeding SOTA, given my extensive experience with a wide variety of model sizes, I would find it highly surprising the "99% of use cases" could be expressed in * Meanwhile: I pulled claude to look into consumer GPU VRAM growth rates, median consumer VRAM went 1-2GB @ 2015 to ~8GB @ 2026, rougly doubles ever…

I agree, but I'm holding out hope that ASICs, unified RAM, and/or enterprise to consumer trickle-down will outpace consumer GPU VRAM growth rates.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#462

Post by kergonath »

graemep wrote: post #457
DrScientist wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in summary OpenAI are basing their valuation of 285 billion on the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? Seems optimistic when there is very little intrinsic stickness due to learning the UI or network effects. Perhaps a little bit chat history - but not 285 billions worth. Also completely ignoring the fact that most devices things will start to come with the same features directly built in…

It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.

Google was clearly superior fo a long time. They got close to 90% before enshitification started in earnest. We are not at that stage yet with AI chatbots.

Also, Google benefited from being the default on mainstream OSes. When people have to download an application, getting one or the other does not take more effort. Yes, OpenAI being tightly integrated within Windows, Android, and iOS would be a moat. That’s not the case and it is unlikely to happen. Google will go with their own and Apple won’t put itself in a situation where they are reliant on a single company, they got burned enough times.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#463

Post by ern »

lm28469 wrote: post #456
shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

> The near billion users OpenAI has They're losing market share and the growth of active user plateaued. They captured all the normies who learned about llms on TV but these people will never spend a cent as you said. They're not even on the top 10 most used llms on openrouter anymore: https://openrouter.ai/rankings At the current pace anthropic will make more money than openai soon: https://epochai.substack.com/p/an…

I'm surprised how many of my technical team use free ChatGPT in their personal lives. The rest have Claude subscriptions. I'm the only one with ChatGPT and Claude subs and I'll be switching from Claude Pro to Ckaude Max and cancelling ChatGPT, since I only use it when I hit my Claude quota.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#464

Post by carlosjobim »

mcny wrote: post #160
lll-o-lll wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did verify the output. You can download your stuff via their api

Ok so it worked correctly today, for you. How do we know it will continue to do so five years down the road when they are suffocating for cash? The more stuff we have there, the harder it becomes to verify their takeout will have everything.

How do you know anything five years down the road? You don't even know where you yourself will be.

When proven wrong, hackers always say "Well in 5 years time or in 10 years time, things might have changed, so I was right and you were wrong".

It limits your own reasoning capabilities, and your satisfaction of always being right yet again will start diminishing with time.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#465

Post by DrScientist »

kergonath wrote: post #462
graemep wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.

Google was clearly superior fo a long time. They got close to 90% before enshitification started in earnest. We are not at that stage yet with AI chatbots. Also, Google benefited from being the default on mainstream OSes. When people have to download an application, getting one or the other does not take more effort. Yes, OpenAI being tightly integrated within Windows, Android, and iOS would be a moat. That’s not the…

Exactly - it was better for a long time.

Also which search engine was the default was a massive factor - that's why Google paid for that.

If Google hadn't controlled Chrome, and or paid for defaults - they could have pretty much lost all their traffic overnight - ( if they weren't better ).

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#466

Post by b3kart »

graemep wrote: post #457
DrScientist wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in summary OpenAI are basing their valuation of 285 billion on the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? Seems optimistic when there is very little intrinsic stickness due to learning the UI or network effects. Perhaps a little bit chat history - but not 285 billions worth. Also completely ignoring the fact that most devices things will start to come with the same features directly built in…

It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.

Don’t you think that’s because Google was objectively a head above everyone other search engine for a long time?

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#467

Post by latexr »

joefourier wrote: post #425
latexr wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Many people say we’re at AGI already and I’m wondering why everyone hasn’t died yet. That’s like saying “many people say the Earth is flat and I’m wondering why anyone hasn’t fallen off the edge yet”. “Many people say” doesn’t translate to reality. Maybe AGI will kill us all, maybe it won’t (I think we’re doing a fine job of that ourselves, no need for a machine’s help), but we’re definitely not at AGI, except in t…

We are already at AGI. I don’t know how you can argue that LLMs don’t meet the definition of general artificial intelligence, as opposed to narrow AI like chess engines, image classifiers, AlphaGo or self driving cars, which are trained with one objective and cannot even possibly be applied to any other task. People have just moved the goalposts, imagine explaining Opus 4.6’s capabilities to someone even 10 years ago…

> People have just moved the goalposts

Yes, I agree. Just not in the direction you’re claiming.

> imagine explaining Opus 4.6’s capabilities to someone even 10 years ago, it would definitely have been called AGI.

No, it would have been called AI. A decade ago most people were not familiar with AGI as a term, that just got popularised because AI was taken over to be basically what we used to call ML.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#468

Post by azan_ »

b3kart wrote: post #466
graemep wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.

Don’t you think that’s because Google was objectively a head above everyone other search engine for a long time?

It’s not anymore (actually google is awful now) and people are still using it

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#469

Post by arctic-true »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #291
arctic-true wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When OpenAI starts requiring a payment, or showing an ad before it starts translating, will they continue? Or will they use the Google Translate app, which can do this locally? (Or for that matter Gemini or Grok or whatever?)

> showing an ad before it starts translating, will they continue Yes. What evidence do we have that mass consumers decamp because of ads?

That’s a fair point. But in most markets you don’t have a half dozen competitors jumping down your throat trying to give you the same service ad-free. Netflix can introduce ads without major quitting because you can’t watch their content elsewhere.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#470

Post by adamtaylor_13 »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #430

Hopefully this is on-topic: I would hope that some people would opt for private chat services. I evaluated both Proton’s Lumo+ and DuckDuckGo’s Duck.ai services. I like both services but only wanted to pay for one and I chose Lumo+ because chat history is stored with my Proton data and is available in all my devices, Duck.ai stores chat history on current access device. Both services are also very usable with their f…

I have a family member with a serious health problem, and I've been using Claude code to put together a very comprehensive medical dossier.

I'm not worried about the privacy aspect though many suggest that I should be. The power the dossier has given them to navigate the medical industry in the United States has been absolutely incredible. They don't have to be stuck when a random doctor who has never heard of their illness suggests that they might be overreacting. They can simply find someone who will help them. They can talk, in medical lingo, about their test results and discuss them with the doctor on equal footing.

I'm not sure this would've been nearly as successful without Opus 4.5/4.6 driving the harness. I'm not also not sure what real privacy risk there is here; it all sounds very theoretical.

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