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I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

grumpy-economist.com

41–50 of 275 posts

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#41

> the kind of analysis the program is able to do is past the point where technology looks like magic. I don’t know how you get here from “predict the next word.” You're implicitly assuming that what you asked the LLM to do is unrepresented in the training data. That assumption is usually faulty - very few of the ideas and concepts we come up with in our everyday lives are truly new. All that being said, the refine.in…

>You're implicitly assuming that what you asked the LLM to do is unrepresented in the training data. This is just as stuck in a moment in time as "they only do next word prediction" What does this even mean anymore? Are we supposed to believe that a review of this paper that wasn't written when that model (It's putatively not an "LLM", but IDK enough about it to be pushy there) was trained? Does that even make sense?…

Statistical models generalize. If you train a model that f(x) = 5 and f(x+1) = 6, the number 7 doesn't have to exist in the training data for the model to give you a correct answer for f(x+2)

Similarly, if there are millions of academic papers and thousands of peer reviews in the training data, a review of this exact paper doesn't need to be in there for the LLM to write something convincing. (I say "convincing" rather than "correct" since, the author himself admits that he doesn't agree with all the LLM's comments.)

I tend to recommend people learn these things from first principles (e.g. build a small neural network, explore deep learning, build a language model) to gain a better intuition. There's really no "magic" at work here.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#42
I know this sounds insane but I've been dwelling on it. Language models are digital Ouija boards. I like the metaphor because it offers multiple conflicting interpretations. How does a Ouija board work? The words appear. Where do they come from? It can be explained in physical terms. Or in metaphysical terms. Collective summing of psychomotor activity. Conduits to a non-corporeal facet of existence. Many caution against the Ouija board as a path to self-inflicted madness, others caution against the Ouija board as a vehicle to bring poorly understood inhuman forces into the world.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#43
The whole next word thing is interesting isn't it. I like to see it with Dennett's "Competence and comprehension" lens. You can predict the next word competently with shallow understanding. But you could also do it well with understanding or comprehension of the full picture. A mental model that allows you to predict better. Are the AIs stumbling into these mental models? Seems like it. However, because these are such black boxes, we do not know how they are stringing these mental models together. Is it a random pick from 10 models built up inside the weights? Is there any system-wide cohesive understanding, whatever that means? Exploring what a model can articualate using self-reflection would be interesting. Can it point to internal cognitive dissonance because it has been fed both evolution and intelligent design, for example? Or these exist as separate models to invoke depending on the prompt context, because all that matters is being rewarded by the current user?

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#44
post #3

Yes, most people (including myself) do not understand how modern LLMs work (especially if we consider the most recent architectural and training improvements). There's the 3b1b video series which does a pretty good job, but now we are interfacing with models that probably have parameter counts in each layer larger than the first models that we interacted with. The novel insights that these models can produce is truly…

What's the latest novel insight you have encountered?

Not the person you asked, and “novel” is a minefield. What’s the last novel anything, in the sense you can’t trace a precursor or reference?

But.. I recently had a LLM suggest an approach to negative mold-making that was novel to me. Long story, but basically isolating the gross geometry and using NURBS booleans for that, plus mesh addition/subtraction for details.

I’m sure there’s prior art out there, but that’s true for pretty much everything.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#45

I have come to think “predict the next token” is not a useful way to explain how LLMs work to people unfamiliar with LLM training and internals. It’s technically correct, but at this point saying that and not talking about things like RLVR training and mechanistic interpretability is about as useful as framing talking with a person as “engaging with a human brain generating tokens” and ignoring psychology. At least A…

Sampling over a probability distribution is not as catchy as "stochastic parrot" but I have personally stopped telling believers that their imagined event horizon of transistor scale is not going to deliver them to their wished for automated utopia b/c one can not reason w/ people who did not reach their conclusions by reasoning.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#47
post #42

I know this sounds insane but I've been dwelling on it. Language models are digital Ouija boards. I like the metaphor because it offers multiple conflicting interpretations. How does a Ouija board work? The words appear. Where do they come from? It can be explained in physical terms. Or in metaphysical terms. Collective summing of psychomotor activity. Conduits to a non-corporeal facet of existence. Many caution agai…

Ouija boards are just collective negotiation among people.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#48
post #15
post #3

Yes, most people (including myself) do not understand how modern LLMs work (especially if we consider the most recent architectural and training improvements). There's the 3b1b video series which does a pretty good job, but now we are interfacing with models that probably have parameter counts in each layer larger than the first models that we interacted with. The novel insights that these models can produce is truly…

I highly recommend Build a large language model from scratch [1] by Sebastian Raschka. It provides a clear explanation of the building blocks used in the first versions of ChatGPT (GPT 2 if I recall correctly). The output of the model is a huge vector of n elements, where n is the number of tokens in the vocabulary. We use that huge vector as a probability distribution to sample the next token given an input sequence…

But this is missing exactly the gap which OP seems to have, which is going from a next token predictor (a language model in the classical sense) to an instruction finetuned, RLHF-ed and "harnessed" tool?

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#49

The "predict the next word" to a current llm is at the same level as a "transistor" (or gate) is to a modern cpu. I don't understand llms enough to expand on that comparison, but I can see how having layers above that feed the layers below to "predict the next word" and use the output to modify the input leading to what we see today. It is turtles all the way down.

Humans are future predictors. Our vision systems, our mental models of our careers. People that predict the future tend to do well financially.

Now the machines are getting better than we are. It's exciting and a little bit terrifying.

We were polymers that evolved intelligence. Now the sand is becoming smart.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#50

I have come to think “predict the next token” is not a useful way to explain how LLMs work to people unfamiliar with LLM training and internals. It’s technically correct, but at this point saying that and not talking about things like RLVR training and mechanistic interpretability is about as useful as framing talking with a person as “engaging with a human brain generating tokens” and ignoring psychology. At least A…

Must one be an "AI-hater" to use the term "stochastic parrot"? Which is probably in response to all the emergent AGI claims and pointless discussions about LLMs being conscious.
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