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I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

grumpy-economist.com

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Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#11
post #2

[flagged]

The article author claims AI was not used to write the article. Personally I believe them, considering the content of the article.

We flew past the Turing test so brilliantly that now people have to try to convince interviewers that they're real.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#12
It’s called emergent behavior. We understand how an llm works, but do not have even a theory about how the behavior emerges from among the math. We understand ants pretty well, but how exactly does anthill behavior come from ant behavior? It’s a tricky problem in system engineering where predicting emergent behavior (such as emergencies) would be lovely.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#14
It’s interesting to read about the use and leverage of LLMs outside of programming.

I’m not too familiar with the history, but the import of this article is brushing up on my nose hairs in a way that makes me think a sort of neo-Sophistry is on the horizon.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#15
post #3

Yes, most people (including myself) do not understand how modern LLMs work (especially if we consider the most recent architectural and training improvements). There's the 3b1b video series which does a pretty good job, but now we are interfacing with models that probably have parameter counts in each layer larger than the first models that we interacted with. The novel insights that these models can produce is truly…

I highly recommend Build a large language model from scratch [1] by Sebastian Raschka. It provides a clear explanation of the building blocks used in the first versions of ChatGPT (GPT 2 if I recall correctly). The output of the model is a huge vector of n elements, where n is the number of tokens in the vocabulary. We use that huge vector as a probability distribution to sample the next token given an input sequence (i.e., a prompt). Under the hood, the model has several building blocks like tokenization, skip connections, self attention, masking, etc. The author makes a great job explaining all the concepts. It is very useful to understand how LLMs works.

[1] https://www.manning.com/books/build-a-large-language-model-f...

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#16
> The comments it offered were on the par of the best comments I’ve received on a paper in my entire academic career.

Sort of the lowest hanging fruit imaginable. Just because it became "fundamental" to the process doesn't mean it gained any quality.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#17
I have come to think “predict the next token” is not a useful way to explain how LLMs work to people unfamiliar with LLM training and internals. It’s technically correct, but at this point saying that and not talking about things like RLVR training and mechanistic interpretability is about as useful as framing talking with a person as “engaging with a human brain generating tokens” and ignoring psychology.

At least AI-haters don’t seem to be talking about “stochastic parrots” quite so much now. Maybe they finally got the memo.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#18
post #12

It’s called emergent behavior. We understand how an llm works, but do not have even a theory about how the behavior emerges from among the math. We understand ants pretty well, but how exactly does anthill behavior come from ant behavior? It’s a tricky problem in system engineering where predicting emergent behavior (such as emergencies) would be lovely.

The good news is that despite being incredibly complex, it’s still a lot simpler than ants because it is at least all statistical linguistics (as far as LLMs are concerned anyways).

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#19
post #12

It’s called emergent behavior. We understand how an llm works, but do not have even a theory about how the behavior emerges from among the math. We understand ants pretty well, but how exactly does anthill behavior come from ant behavior? It’s a tricky problem in system engineering where predicting emergent behavior (such as emergencies) would be lovely.

> but do not have even a theory about how the behavior emerges

We fully do. There is a significant quality difference between English language output and other languages which lends a huge hint as to what is actually happening behind the scenes.

> but how exactly does anthill behavior come from ant behavior?

You can't smell what ants can. If you did I'm sure it would be evident.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#20
post #12

It’s called emergent behavior. We understand how an llm works, but do not have even a theory about how the behavior emerges from among the math. We understand ants pretty well, but how exactly does anthill behavior come from ant behavior? It’s a tricky problem in system engineering where predicting emergent behavior (such as emergencies) would be lovely.

> but do not have even a theory about how the behavior emerges We fully do. There is a significant quality difference between English language output and other languages which lends a huge hint as to what is actually happening behind the scenes. > but how exactly does anthill behavior come from ant behavior? You can't smell what ants can. If you did I'm sure it would be evident.

I am very curious about this significant hint, could you point me to some material?
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