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AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

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Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#71

Post by dvt »

mirekrusin wrote: post #35

This article seems to have "basically zero" content. Today you have to be blind to not see the change that is coming. World has its own (massive) inertia, burocracy present in businesses accounting for a big part in it. AI itself is moving fast but not at infinite speeds. We start to have good enough tooling but it's not yet available to everyone and it still hangs on too many hacks that will need to crystalize. Peop…

We're still 6-12+ months away from a "killer" AI product. OpenClaw showed what's possible-ish, but it breaks half the time, eats tokens like crazy, and can leak all kinds of secrets. Clearly there's potential there, and a lot of people are working on products in the AI space (myself included), but anyone that's seriously tried to wrangle these models will agree with the reality that it's very hard to reliably get them to do what you want them to do.

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#72

Post by __loam »

mirekrusin wrote: post #35

This article seems to have "basically zero" content. Today you have to be blind to not see the change that is coming. World has its own (massive) inertia, burocracy present in businesses accounting for a big part in it. AI itself is moving fast but not at infinite speeds. We start to have good enough tooling but it's not yet available to everyone and it still hangs on too many hacks that will need to crystalize. Peop…

Can't even spell bureaucracy while you're making big predictions like this.

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#73

Post by lanstin »

co_king_5 wrote: post #38
preommr wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not saying this to be sarcastic - the problem is that people from OpenAI/Antrhopic are saying things like superintelligence in 3 years, or boris saying coding is solved and that 100% of his code is written by AI. It's not good enough to just say oreo ceos say we need to more oreos. There's a real grey area where these tools are useful in some capacity, and in that confusion we're spending billions. Too may peopl…

[dead]

Have you ever tried to trick an LLM? Did you have trouble?

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#74

Post by jsheard »

bdangubic wrote: post #59
jsheard wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention the investment is on another level. We've got companies with valuations in the hundred-billions talking about raising trillions to buy all of the computers in the world, before establishing whether they can even turn a profit, nevermind upend the economy.

the investments are being made by massively profitable companies (our biggest and brightest ones, the ones that have been carrying the economy for quite some time now, even before "AI"). even just in recent history we have seen companies making large investments and being very unprofitable until they weren't anymore (e.g. Uber). and it is always the same story, everyone is up in arms "this is not sustainable etc..."…

I'd maybe think twice about assuming Meta knows what they're doing after they just pissed $75 billion up the wall on a Metaverse dream that went nowhere.

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#75

Post by arctic-true »

co_king_5 wrote: post #38
preommr wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not saying this to be sarcastic - the problem is that people from OpenAI/Antrhopic are saying things like superintelligence in 3 years, or boris saying coding is solved and that 100% of his code is written by AI. It's not good enough to just say oreo ceos say we need to more oreos. There's a real grey area where these tools are useful in some capacity, and in that confusion we're spending billions. Too may peopl…

[dead]

Researchers looked at GPT-3 in 2023 and saw “sparks of AGI”. The saying “feel the AGI” became widespread not long after, if I’m remembering right. We’ve been saying AGI is right around the corner for a while now. And of course, if you predict the end of the world every day, you’ll eventually be right. But for the moment, what we have is an exceptionally powerful coding assistant that can also speed up entry-level work in various other white collar industries. That is earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting. But given how competitive and expensive the AI game has become, that is not enough, so it needs to be “superintelligence” - and it’s just not.

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#76

Post by jeltz »

rainsford wrote: post #28
kakapo5672 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, and the same with the internet. During the 1990s and 2000s, people kept wondering why the internet wasn't showing up in productivity numbers. Many asked if the internet was therefore just a fad or bubble. Same as some now do with AI. It takes time for technology to show measurable impact in enormous economies. No reason why AI will be any different.

Sure, but you have to consider Carl Sagan's point, "The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." Some truly useful technologies start out slow and the question is asked if they are fads or bubbles even though they end up having huge im…

Columbus was not a genius. He was an idiot who believed the earth was smaller than the scientists of his day, and the scientists were right. Columbus became successful through pure luck, genocide and cruelty.

Most idiots like Columbus died in obscurity.

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#77

Post by gaigalas »

mirekrusin wrote: post #35

This article seems to have "basically zero" content. Today you have to be blind to not see the change that is coming. World has its own (massive) inertia, burocracy present in businesses accounting for a big part in it. AI itself is moving fast but not at infinite speeds. We start to have good enough tooling but it's not yet available to everyone and it still hangs on too many hacks that will need to crystalize. Peop…

Change is always coming. It's cute when someone thinks this time it's going to be special.

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#78

Post by bdangubic »

jsheard wrote: post #74
bdangubic wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the investments are being made by massively profitable companies (our biggest and brightest ones, the ones that have been carrying the economy for quite some time now, even before "AI"). even just in recent history we have seen companies making large investments and being very unprofitable until they weren't anymore (e.g. Uber). and it is always the same story, everyone is up in arms "this is not sustainable etc..."…

I'd maybe think twice about assuming Meta knows what they're doing after they just pissed $75 billion up the wall on a Metaverse dream that went nowhere.

if it was just Meta perhaps I’d think twice but it is not just Meta, it is all of them

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#79

Post by yowayb »

d_watt wrote: post #11

It took 20 years for computers to "add" to the economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox

I think this paragraph from the wikipedia article captures it nicely:

>Many observers disagree that any meaningful "productivity paradox" exists and others, while acknowledging the disconnect between IT capacity and spending, view it less as a paradox than a series of unwarranted assumptions about the impact of technology on productivity. In the latter view, this disconnect is emblematic of our need to understand and do a better job of deploying the technology that becomes available to us rather than an arcane paradox that by its nature is difficult to unravel.

Re: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US Economic Growth Last Year, Goldman Sachs Says

#80

Post by vachina »

Gigachad wrote: post #13
qgin wrote: post #8

The most interesting thing about this is that the underlying economy is actually stronger than people realize. The narrative has been that AI data center construction was propping up an otherwise weak economy. If this analysis is true, then it wasn't being propped up by data center construction. The strength was usual and normal strength. I have no doubt that people will use this to axe grind about they think AI is d…

The US economy is remarkably resilient considering its withstood a year of sabotage from the top down.

The top don’t run the show. Tells you how much a value they provide.
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