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Writing code is cheap now

simonwillison.net

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Re: Writing code is cheap now

#121

Post by kakapo5672 »

dw_arthur wrote: post #109
crystal_revenge wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The new skill is mastering the craft of directing cheap inputs toward valuable outcomes. Strongly agree with this. It took me awhile to realize that "agentic engineering" wasn't about writing software it was about being able to very quickly iterate on bespoke tools for solving a very specific problem you have. However, as soon as you start unblocking yourself from the real problem you want to solve, the agentic eng…

It's funny that so many people are using AI and still hasn't really shown up in productivity numbers or product quality yet. I'm going to be really confused if this is still the case at the end of the year. A whole year of access to these latest agentic models has to produce visible economic changes or something is wrong.

This is actually an old syndrome with technology. It takes a longt ime for the effect to be reliably measured. Famously, it took many years for the internet itself to show up in significant productivity gains (if the internet is actually useful why don't the numbers show that? - a common comment in the 1990s and 2000s). So it seems to me we're just the usual dynamic here. Productivity in trillion-dollar economies do not turn on a dime

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#123

Post by crystal_revenge »

sillyfluke wrote: post #119
crystal_revenge wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to think this was a sign that AI code isn't really useful, but I've changed my tune (also I believe these numbers have changed in the last few months). As an example: One of my most promising projects I was discussing with a friend and we realized together we could potentially use these tools to build a two person agency with no need to hire anyone ever. If this were to work, could theoretically make nice reve…

>One of my most promising projects I was discussing with a friend and we realized together we could potentially use these tools to build a two person agency with no need to hire anyone ever...My current belief is not that AI will replace traditional software engineering it will replace a good chunk of the entire model of software You're not following your last line to its logical conclusion regarding your own prospec…

We're not selling vibe slop, the "vibe slop" tools which work for one person enable of automation of tasks for the services we sell. Whether or not we use AI behind the scenes is entirely irrelevant to the service we're providing other than that it allows our margins to be higher and our speed of implementation to be faster.

I absolutely agree that it's not logical to think "oh we'll sell our AI stuff", that's the old model (which is just a variation on SaaS). I suspect a lot of HNers can't imagine a "product" that isn't code, but that's not at all what I'm describing.

The products that most people on HN have traditionally built are used by other companies to make money by allowing those processes to be scaled. AI, in many new cases, eliminates the need for a 'software' middle man. The case I'm describing is "I know how to make money doing X if only I could scale it up with out hiring people" and my offering is "I can scale it up without hiring people".

This is increasingly where I think the future of work is headed, and it's more than fine if you aren't convinced.

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#124

Post by halfcat »

crystal_revenge wrote: post #123
sillyfluke wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>One of my most promising projects I was discussing with a friend and we realized together we could potentially use these tools to build a two person agency with no need to hire anyone ever...My current belief is not that AI will replace traditional software engineering it will replace a good chunk of the entire model of software You're not following your last line to its logical conclusion regarding your own prospec…

We're not selling vibe slop, the "vibe slop" tools which work for one person enable of automation of tasks for the services we sell. Whether or not we use AI behind the scenes is entirely irrelevant to the service we're providing other than that it allows our margins to be higher and our speed of implementation to be faster. I absolutely agree that it's not logical to think "oh we'll sell our AI stuff", that's the ol…

> it allows our margins to be higher and our speed of implementation to be faster

Faster than what? You will be faster than your previous self, just like all of your competitors. Where’s the net gain here? Even if you somehow managed to capture more value for yourself, you’ve stopped providing value to 5-10x that many employees who are no longer employed.

When costs approach zero on a large scale, margins do not increase. Low costs = you’re not paying anyone = your competitors aren’t paying anyone = your customers no longer have money = your revenue follows your costs straight to zero.

Companies that provide physical services can’t scale without hiring. A one-man “crew” isn’t putting a roof on a data center.

I want to be wrong. Tell me why you think any of this is wrong.

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#125

Post by HWR_14 »

crystal_revenge wrote: post #118
dw_arthur wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny that so many people are using AI and still hasn't really shown up in productivity numbers or product quality yet. I'm going to be really confused if this is still the case at the end of the year. A whole year of access to these latest agentic models has to produce visible economic changes or something is wrong.

I used to think this was a sign that AI code isn't really useful, but I've changed my tune (also I believe these numbers have changed in the last few months). As an example: One of my most promising projects I was discussing with a friend and we realized together we could potentially use these tools to build a two person agency with no need to hire anyone ever. If this were to work, could theoretically make nice reve…

> If this were to work, could theoretically make nice revenue and it shouldn't show up in any metric anywhere.

Except production GDP, the standard measure of economic activity.

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#126

Post by bryanrasmussen »

crystal_revenge wrote: post #118
dw_arthur wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny that so many people are using AI and still hasn't really shown up in productivity numbers or product quality yet. I'm going to be really confused if this is still the case at the end of the year. A whole year of access to these latest agentic models has to produce visible economic changes or something is wrong.

I used to think this was a sign that AI code isn't really useful, but I've changed my tune (also I believe these numbers have changed in the last few months). As an example: One of my most promising projects I was discussing with a friend and we realized together we could potentially use these tools to build a two person agency with no need to hire anyone ever. If this were to work, could theoretically make nice reve…

>One of my most promising projects I was discussing with a friend and we realized together we could potentially use these tools to build a two person agency with no need to hire anyone ever. If this were to work, could theoretically make nice revenue and it shouldn't show up in any metric anywhere.

potentially...if this were to work...theoretically

shouldn't show up? I would worry that something with so many variables wouldn't show up.

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#127

Post by awepofiwaop »

jdahlin wrote: post #22
the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #15

I'm going to shill my own writing here [1] but I think it addresses this post in a different way. Because we can now write code so much faster and quicker, everything downstream from that is just not ready for it. Right now we might have to slow down, but medium and long term we need to figure out how to build systems in a way that it can keep up with this increased influx of code. > The challenge is to develop new p…

One of the most interesting aspects is when LLMs are cheap and small enough so that apps can ship with a builtin one so that it can adjust code for each user based on input/usage patterns.

The clear intent is to stop allowing regular people to be able to compute...anything. Instead, you'll be given a screen that only connects to $LLM_SERVER and the only interface will be voice/text in which you ask it to do things. It then does those things non-deterministically, and slower than they would be done right now. But at least you won't have control over how it works!

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#128

Post by HWR_14 »

sjaiisba wrote: post #79
ej88 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're already seeing eye-watering, blistering growth from the new hot applied AI startups and labs Imo the wave of top down 'AI mandates' from incumbent companies is a direct result of the competitive pressure, although it probably wont work as well as the execs think it will that being said even Dario claims a 5-20% speedup from coding agents, 10x productivity only exists in microcosm prototypes, or if someone was s…

AI has been a lifesaver for my low performing coworkers. They’re still heavily reliant on reviews, but their output is up. One of the lowest output guys I ever worked with is a massive LinkedIn LLM promoter. Not sure how long it’ll last though. With the time I spend on reviews I could have done it myself, so if they don’t start learning…

> With the time I spend on reviews I could have done it myself, so if they don’t start learning…

Then? Your job is still to review their code. If they are your coworker, you can not fire them.

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#129

Post by bryanrasmussen »

candiddevmike wrote: post #32
jdahlin wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the most interesting aspects is when LLMs are cheap and small enough so that apps can ship with a builtin one so that it can adjust code for each user based on input/usage patterns.

If this could ever happen, there will be no point in GUI apps anymore, your AI assistant or what have you will just interact with everything on your behalf and/or present you with some kind of master interface for everything. I don't see a bunch of small agents in the future, instead just one per device or user. Maybe there will be a fleeting moment for GUI/local apps to tie into some local, OS LLM library (or some k…

>If this could ever happen, there will be no point in GUI apps anymore, your AI assistant or what have you will just interact with everything on your behalf and/or present you with some kind of master interface for everything.

sort of how the hammer is the most useful tool ever and all we have to do is to make every thing that needs doing look like a nail.

Re: Writing code is cheap now

#130

Post by tabs_or_spaces »

> Code has always been expensive. Producing a few hundred lines of clean, tested code takes most software developers a full day or more. Many of our engineering habits, at both the macro and micro level, are built around this core constraint.

> ...

> Writing good code remains significantly more expensive

I think this is a bad argument. Code was expensive because you were trying to write the expensive good code in the first place.

When you drop your standards, then writing generated code is quick, easy and cheap. Unless you're willing to change your standard, getting it back to "good code" is still an equivalent effort.

There are alternative ways to define the argument for agentic coding, this is just a really really bad argument to kick it off.

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