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AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

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Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#61

Post by saila »

agentifysh wrote: post #23

Often I see youtube videos that sells an overwhelmingly negative take on AI, like "OpenAI" fails 93% of Jobs or "AI is destroying the world" and other weirdly outlandish titles that is clearly aimed at clickbait. Watching these content I often get confused because it never seems to highlight the actual real world progress and use that LLMs in particular gets for coding. Much of what was "vibe coding" is becoming just…

The point of the video is to highlight how the inundation of AI-generated pull requests is harming open source. It doesn't say anything about AI success/failure rates, and it wouldn't make sense for it to go into details about that. However, it does mention that LLMs are useful for some things.

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#62

Post by em-bee »

david_allison wrote: post #24
snowhale wrote: post #15

[dead]

AI changes little here. It was never guaranteed that an author was available to contact regarding a past PR. Merging a PR from a non-established contributor is often taking on responsibility for the long-term maintenance of their code.

which is why non-established contributors generally are discouraged from submitting large amounts of code.

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#63

Post by lm28469 »

nomel wrote: post #60
lm28469 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you're hiding the vast majority of facts, like the fact that we already used every last drop of data available, the fact that they spent hundreds of billions on it and no one makes money besides the people selling them GPUs and memory chips, the fact that contrary to most tech these hings aren't getting cheaper to create, &c.

I suggest looking at some of the recent AI research, as it's not as dead of a field as you imply. Everyone understands that there's no more text and video/image data from the web. There's massive amounts of data outside of this, especially around the context of replacing jobs (think robots). With the last couple years, I don't see any reason to believe today's LLM architectures or training methods are the last to be…

All I'm saying is the hype around these things is always 10x what the reality ends up being, every single time. Autonomous cars, bitcoin, VR, metaverse, it's always the same story, a loooooot of hype, a bit of actual delivery, and move on to the next sca...project

Where does the 7% number come from actually? no one knows... where are the hundred millions of unemployed people? no one knows, where is the productivity increase? no one knows. It moves fast and their shoveling a lot of shit down our throats, that I agree with, I'm just not seeing any of the magic or "AGI in two weeks my dudes" type of things.

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#64

Post by agentifysh »

lm28469 wrote: post #63
nomel wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest looking at some of the recent AI research, as it's not as dead of a field as you imply. Everyone understands that there's no more text and video/image data from the web. There's massive amounts of data outside of this, especially around the context of replacing jobs (think robots). With the last couple years, I don't see any reason to believe today's LLM architectures or training methods are the last to be…

All I'm saying is the hype around these things is always 10x what the reality ends up being, every single time. Autonomous cars, bitcoin, VR, metaverse, it's always the same story, a loooooot of hype, a bit of actual delivery, and move on to the next sca...project Where does the 7% number come from actually? no one knows... where are the hundred millions of unemployed people? no one knows, where is the productivity i…

Not all hype is the same. Internet was hyped. Automobile ("faster horses please"). Telephone ("we have messengers on horses already"). Radio & Television ("nobody is gonna sit in front of a box all day!"). Computers ("nobody wants these clunky loud things in tehir home"). Smartphones ("no keyboard its useless).

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#65

Post by lm28469 »

agentifysh wrote: post #64
lm28469 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All I'm saying is the hype around these things is always 10x what the reality ends up being, every single time. Autonomous cars, bitcoin, VR, metaverse, it's always the same story, a loooooot of hype, a bit of actual delivery, and move on to the next sca...project Where does the 7% number come from actually? no one knows... where are the hundred millions of unemployed people? no one knows, where is the productivity i…

Not all hype is the same. Internet was hyped. Automobile ("faster horses please"). Telephone ("we have messengers on horses already"). Radio & Television ("nobody is gonna sit in front of a box all day!"). Computers ("nobody wants these clunky loud things in tehir home"). Smartphones ("no keyboard its useless).

None of these industries had weirdos asking for $7 trillion to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man, they all grew organically over decades before finding their uses without being actively forced into every aspect of your life 2 years after the mvp was released.

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#66

Post by nomel »

lm28469 wrote: post #63
nomel wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest looking at some of the recent AI research, as it's not as dead of a field as you imply. Everyone understands that there's no more text and video/image data from the web. There's massive amounts of data outside of this, especially around the context of replacing jobs (think robots). With the last couple years, I don't see any reason to believe today's LLM architectures or training methods are the last to be…

All I'm saying is the hype around these things is always 10x what the reality ends up being, every single time. Autonomous cars, bitcoin, VR, metaverse, it's always the same story, a loooooot of hype, a bit of actual delivery, and move on to the next sca...project Where does the 7% number come from actually? no one knows... where are the hundred millions of unemployed people? no one knows, where is the productivity i…

What does AGI have to do with it? Look up the top employer for your state [1] (or top few). If you go with the definition that AGI allows novel ideas/innovation, you'll see AGI is not needed for most jobs.

Don't fall for the hype or anti-hype.

[1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/largest-emp...

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#67

Post by snowhale »

taftster wrote: post #43
snowhale wrote: post #15

[dead]

You overestimate my ability to keep mental context for 6 months. And additionally, most of the PRs I have seen reviewed, the quality hasn't really degraded or improved since LLMs have started contributing. I think we have been rubber stamping PRs for quite sometime. Not sure that AI is doing any worse.

[dead]

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#68

Post by _aavaa_ »

kunai wrote: post #32
pmdr wrote: post #3

That and it's also destroying the environment, trust, truth, creativity, people's ability to afford better computing equipment and so on.

I never quite understood why AI and LLMs are marketed the way they are, or why the powers that be behind its massive push seem so keen on selling it as a wholesale replacement for human careers (which given the current curve of improvements despite what the naysayers of human intellect might suggest, is unfeasible). Accountants didn't die off when calculators came on the scene. In no scenario is an LLM a drop-in repl…

> CAD was a drop-in replacement for draftsmen -- and even then, draftsmen are still around today, in slightly smaller numbers

You’re off my an order of magnitude here. Even ignoring departments that were significantly downsized, you would need substantially more draftsmen to do the work currently done by a smaller number with AutoCAD.

The skill required is also much lower, doubly so if you consider Solidworks/Inventor. You get everything for free; design the 3D model and your projections are free.

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#69

Post by agentifysh »

lm28469 wrote: post #65
agentifysh wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all hype is the same. Internet was hyped. Automobile ("faster horses please"). Telephone ("we have messengers on horses already"). Radio & Television ("nobody is gonna sit in front of a box all day!"). Computers ("nobody wants these clunky loud things in tehir home"). Smartphones ("no keyboard its useless).

None of these industries had weirdos asking for $7 trillion to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man, they all grew organically over decades before finding their uses without being actively forced into every aspect of your life 2 years after the mvp was released.

In all of those cases capital chased a future reality, railroad, electricity, internet all had massive speculation. the dot com bubble came and went but internet stayed.

$7 trillion looks cartoonish due to inflation, you'd have to normalize it with other economic numbers. Large companies are funding capex with bonds that still within healthy margins per employee head.

> to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man

not sure why you view this so negatively, that would be absolutely worth every penny. Granted there is a lot of noise too but dismissing everything because of the volume is premature. Technological shifts rarely produce catastrophic labor supply/demand shocks that last, it changes how we work and the market adjusts.

You are conflating the hype layer typical with all major technological breakthroughs and the subsequent capability that gets baked into humanity as a result.

Re: AI is destroying open source, and it's not even good yet [video]

#70

Post by taftster »

snowhale wrote: post #67
taftster wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You overestimate my ability to keep mental context for 6 months. And additionally, most of the PRs I have seen reviewed, the quality hasn't really degraded or improved since LLMs have started contributing. I think we have been rubber stamping PRs for quite sometime. Not sure that AI is doing any worse.

[dead]

Well, it should be the approver of the PR, not the author (AI slop or human slop) that is accountable. I don't ever want an AI to auto-approve a PR (or maybe only for very small things, like dependency-bot kind of tasks).

Not saying that's how it's done, in terms of accountability. The skin-in-the-game thing is hopefully still present, even with AI. But you're right, there's risk.

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