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Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

docs.hetzner.com

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Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#221

Post by gck1 »

Silhouette wrote: post #195
gck1 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. By the time market figures things out, you may no longer have services, and hardware that you use daily. When such amounts of stupid money are pumped into a single industry, even if all AI companies went out of business tomorrow, it's going to take years for things to go back to normal. FWIW, I'…

What we're seeing is the natural conclusion of VC distortion in a market. There is so much money being pumped into AI speculatively now that it's hurting normal and sustainable businesses in other parts of the economy. The solution might have to be mandatory rationing of some kind to avoid a situation where only a handful of AI giants are able to buy essential components. We can't just throw the rest of the economy u…

I'm seeing the same thing. I was consulting a group of people in my city that wanted to digitize massive load of old VHS tapes. No AI, no crazy tech, just standard, boring storage+network infrastructure.

I'm looking at the procurement sheet that I made for them a year ago. Half of the items are no longer available, while the other half became so expensive that we'd probably build 10 of such labs with these costs a year ago.

I'm also looking at my home NAS right now - I pray not even a plastic clip breaks inside, because I'd have to shut it down.

While these are still likely the first things that you'd think of being affected, I'm sure the effects are rippling through essentially every industry that utilizes these components in their supply chain. Which is probably - every industry nowadays?

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#222

Post by infecto »

rchaud wrote: post #214
infecto wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why tax something that the market will figure out? This is normal and things will sort themself out.

Markets only "figure things out" in a petri dish economy where: 1) There are no barriers to entry for competitors (e.g. protectionist tariffs, equal access to capital for everyone) 2) There are perfect substitutes available, so transitioning to a competitor is seamless and free (e.g. no requirement to store data in Country X, no vendor lock-in, no security compliance) 3) The industry is not a "natural monopoly" when…

Markets are never perfect but over the course of history they are a pretty good mechanism to solve these type of problems. Not sure why we think taxing hyperscalers differently is the answer. Government usually does worse than the market when it comes to sorting it out.

My argument is not that market is perfect but that the alternatives are probably far worse, like a new tax on a specific group of companies.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#223

Post by embedding-shape »

jeroenhd wrote: post #213
embedding-shape wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if all the doomers and gloomers were correct that this is the end of hardware at home, we'd see the price continue to increase, and suppliers trying to ramp up production, even if it'd take long time. The fact that it stabilized (at whatever price) and that suppliers aren't even thinking about ramping up production, should tell people that the doomers and gloomers were yet again over-reacting to things they don…

> Well, if all the doomers and gloomers were correct that this is the end of hardware at home, we'd see the price continue to increase, and suppliers trying to ramp up production, even if it'd take long time. Ramping up production takes months and paying back the price to ramp up production takes years. Manufacturers have started investing in more production capacity but it'll take a while before supply can be sold o…

> Manufacturers have started investing in more production capacity

Where are you getting this from? Because that's not what I've seen, if anything the industry seems to lowering the production capacity, not increasing it.

And even if it takes years, if they thought it was a sustainable growth in demand, they'd at least be moving in that direction which again, doesn't seem to be happening.

> I believe the forecast is that RAM prices will start going down again between August and the end of next year. Until then, prices will climb as stock depletes and RAM production is capped.

You're already wrong with this today, prices stopped climbing already and have been stabilizing at the current prices... https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#224

Post by JasonADrury »

ReptileMan wrote: post #133
JasonADrury wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Try this as experiment - try to buy something like precision dowel pins from Poland or DOLD Mechatronik with shipping to Greece, Bulgaria or Romania vs the same thing from Aliexpress or Temu. Chinese costs are cheaper even if they have to fly here. This is an awful experiment. Only consumers care about delivery costs on deliveries like these, and what you're looking at are explicitly not goods aimed at consumers.

Okay. Then buy pizza oven from Italy and see how shipping costs are 60% of the price of the oven. Anyway - you seems to misunderstand. If transporting something from Shenzhen to Franfurt is cheaper than transporting the same thing from Krakow to Thessaloniki - means that EU has fucked up royally in its main mission - to facilitate movement of goods. WE have ungodly patch of local carriers and courier companies and a…

> Then buy pizza oven from Italy and see how shipping costs are 60% of the price of the oven

Is it even physically possible to deliver at a significantly lower cost? Pizza ovens are both very large and very heavy, you can't fit many of them in a vehicle. They're also tricky to load and unload.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#225

Post by infecto »

gck1 wrote: post #171
infecto wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why tax something that the market will figure out? This is normal and things will sort themself out.

We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. By the time market figures things out, you may no longer have services, and hardware that you use daily. When such amounts of stupid money are pumped into a single industry, even if all AI companies went out of business tomorrow, it's going to take years for things to go back to normal. FWIW, I'…

Sounds like hyperbole. Yes the world is connected yes we are seeing shortages, yes the market is imperfect and it lags but this is how things get fixed. Prices are sorted out, manufacturers make bets on long term capacity. Some will be losers, some will be winners.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#226

Post by iso1631 »

gck1 wrote: post #199
embedding-shape wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech What does this even mean? I know people on the internet sometimes exaggerate, but I cannot even begin to find a more charitable meaning with this, what exactly will be "destroyed" in "tech" because of prices going up for a year or two?

Here's an easy experiment to conduct: look around the room at your home and count all the devices that have a CPU, RAM, SSD or HDD. Then take a look at your bank statement to see what are the services you pay for monthly that also require the same hardware. Now, imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD. There's no more available supply for these components, because this is what's h…

My laptop's 8 years old, if I can't get memory I'll just have to sweat it a little longer. Same with my NAS drive

Same with work -- I've just ordered some replacements for 13 year old servers in one office, but if it was more economical to repair them

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#227

Post by GJim »

ReptileMan wrote: post #133
JasonADrury wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Try this as experiment - try to buy something like precision dowel pins from Poland or DOLD Mechatronik with shipping to Greece, Bulgaria or Romania vs the same thing from Aliexpress or Temu. Chinese costs are cheaper even if they have to fly here. This is an awful experiment. Only consumers care about delivery costs on deliveries like these, and what you're looking at are explicitly not goods aimed at consumers.

Okay. Then buy pizza oven from Italy and see how shipping costs are 60% of the price of the oven. Anyway - you seems to misunderstand. If transporting something from Shenzhen to Franfurt is cheaper than transporting the same thing from Krakow to Thessaloniki - means that EU has fucked up royally in its main mission - to facilitate movement of goods. WE have ungodly patch of local carriers and courier companies and a…

> If transporting something from Shenzhen to Franfurt is cheaper than transporting the same thing from Krakow to Thessaloniki - means that EU has fucked up

Ummmm. No.

It means the United Nations Universal Post Union international treaties which effectively provide China with subsidised postage TO THE WORLD (as China is a "developing country") needs urgently updating....... Some of the postage you pay to send parcels within the boarders of your own country is used to subsidise crap posted from China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Postal_Union

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#228

Post by embedding-shape »

keepamovin wrote: post #212
embedding-shape wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Vultr may be a good alternative I feel like a huge selling point of Hetzner is that they're based in Europe, and they're themselves citing that as the reason for a huge uptick in sales and new users. In that context, I don't Vultr is a realistic alternative.

OK, I never thought of it like that. It was always a price thing. For a while Vultr and Hetzner were much better value per unit. What's behind the European push?

> What's behind the European push?

Obviously the US pushing absolutely everyone away and making EU and Europe the new enemy, so now we here want to reciprocate that and feel the need to move away from US infrastructure ASAP.

Personally I've been on a personal quest to minimize my usage of US-based services for many years already, but right now it's even part of the mainstream conversations, so seems to be ramping up, finally.

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