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Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

bbc.com

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Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#71

Post by JumpCrisscross »

skybrian wrote: post #19
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #7

“To simplify greatly, the strategy of non-violence aims first to cause disruption (non-violently) in order both to draw attention but also in order to bait state overreaction. The state’s overreaction then becomes the ‘spectacular attack’ which broadcasts the movement’s message, while the group’s willingness to endure that overreaction without violence not only avoids alienating supporters, it heightens the contrast…

Good article. It seems like a consequence is that publicity outside Iran is only going to be effective to the extent that it mobilizes people inside Iran? (With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention, but I don't think air strikes are going to do it?) And the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people. I don't see this ending well.

> With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention

Or Tel Aviv, Rihyadh, New Delhi or any other one of the hosts of Iran’s adversaries and enemies.

> the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people

I find it helpful to decompose states as monoliths in these cases. Besides attracting an intervention, the purpose of such a protest would also include motivating state elements to attempt a coup.

Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#72

Post by zozbot234 »

skybrian wrote: post #19
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #7

“To simplify greatly, the strategy of non-violence aims first to cause disruption (non-violently) in order both to draw attention but also in order to bait state overreaction. The state’s overreaction then becomes the ‘spectacular attack’ which broadcasts the movement’s message, while the group’s willingness to endure that overreaction without violence not only avoids alienating supporters, it heightens the contrast…

Good article. It seems like a consequence is that publicity outside Iran is only going to be effective to the extent that it mobilizes people inside Iran? (With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention, but I don't think air strikes are going to do it?) And the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people. I don't see this ending well.

According to betting exchanges air strikes on Iran are quite unlikely in the very near term, but become more likely than not by this summer or the end of the year. So this doesn't seem to be a matter of near-term attention, more of a prediction that the Iranian government will not manage to shift their stance in a more favorable direction.

Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#73

Post by mvdtnz »

halflife wrote: post #29
Razengan wrote: post #12

Sorry about the whataboutery but it's "funny" how chaos in non Western-allied countries gets so much coverage, even when it doesn't affect us, but shit like the people of France's New Caledonia trying to get independence doesn't: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6S1AFh88PE I didn't even know about that, just that it was a beautiful place and looked it up one day to fantasize about a potential future vacation, and saw…

Saying that the actions of the Iranian regime doesn’t affect western nations is like being in a burning building, saying that the fire in the floors below doesn’t affect you.

Iran is totally and completely irrelevant to the lives of the vast majority of people in the West.

Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#75

Post by mothballed »

akiselev wrote: post #70
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #7

“To simplify greatly, the strategy of non-violence aims first to cause disruption (non-violently) in order both to draw attention but also in order to bait state overreaction. The state’s overreaction then becomes the ‘spectacular attack’ which broadcasts the movement’s message, while the group’s willingness to endure that overreaction without violence not only avoids alienating supporters, it heightens the contrast…

The book Brett uses as his main source, Waging A Good War , is an incredible book that I strongly recommend. It treats the Civil Rights movement as a military campaign and analyzes it from the perspective of a military historian. Not in the sense that it was viewed as a war by the protestors, but in the sense that the logistics, training, and operations of the Civil Rights movement were a well oiled machine that look…

[flagged]

Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#76

Post by weakfish »

gambutin wrote: post #56
weakfish wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was 81 years ago. Iraq was 20. You’re either being willfully obtuse or don’t believe recency is more indicative.

I am saying external regime change = bad is not true. Only if you want it to be true - for your narrative. Then you will say things like: but it was 80 years ago!!

Well of course it’s not black or white, it’s nuanced as everything in life is.

But my larger point is that I don’t trust the current US administration to engage in regime change in a beneficial way as perhaps the US admin in 1945 did. You’re right that those examples and some others are good ones. But I believe the odds are that this situation would be one of the worse ones.

Do I support the Iranian regime? Hell no! I just also don’t think the US invading is a solution that would bring long term peace and prosperity.

Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#78

Post by Galaxeblaffer »

weakfish wrote: post #17
Rover222 wrote: post #15

[flagged]

Idk, I’ve never seen any left wing folks actively support the Iranian regime. I think the difference is what you noted, the US support for Israel vs. intervention in Iran. I, and many I know, would love to see the Iranian regime fall, just not via US regime change which tends to make things worse.

One big thing your missing is that there simply is no way imaginable that a regime change can happen without the US, it's simply impossible at this stage. I can certainly understand why many if not most Iranians want the US to intervene, it's simply the only way regime change is ever going to happen.w

Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#79

Post by don_esteban »

logicchains wrote: post #47
weakfish wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was 81 years ago. Iraq was 20. You’re either being willfully obtuse or don’t believe recency is more indicative.

Iraq now is a lot richer and freer than it was under Saddam Hussein.

Is it richer than before western sanctions?

It is always the same story: Look how poorly the regime manages the country!

Never said: The country is under such sanctions/blockade that any western country would have already folded long ago.

Re: Iran students stage first large anti-government protests since deadly crackdown

#80

Post by santoshalper »

mothballed wrote: post #75
akiselev wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book Brett uses as his main source, Waging A Good War , is an incredible book that I strongly recommend. It treats the Civil Rights movement as a military campaign and analyzes it from the perspective of a military historian. Not in the sense that it was viewed as a war by the protestors, but in the sense that the logistics, training, and operations of the Civil Rights movement were a well oiled machine that look…

[flagged]

Pound for pound, Hacker News has the best bad takes anywhere. This is an absolutely terrible take, but at least it's very interesting.
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