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The island where people forget to die

nytimes.com

151–154 of 154 posts

Re: The island where people forget to die

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, we aren't using the word empirically differently. I'm just saying that the interesting conversations revolve around where to look, not whether to look or not. "Empirically" there is something interesting on that island. I'd love to hear ideas of what it could be, along with ways to test those ideas. The former without the latter is how snake-oil gets sold, but shutting down all conversation because snake-oil coul…

> I'm just saying that the interesting conversations revolve around where to look, not whether to look or not. And we find out where to look based on empirical evidence most of the time. > shutting down all conversation because snake-oil could be sold This has nothing to do with empirical evidence.

And we find out where to look based on empirical evidence most of the time

-- This is most often not true.

Conscious thought is terribly inefficient. Most 'looking' is instinctive, or intuitive. That's not to say it has not been educated or modified by empirical data at some stage. But this illusion of such hyper-rationality is worth avoiding.

What is interesting (sometimes) is to hear other people's intuition and prioritization as the evaluate what to look for. This is typically what seperates out class in real world performance. This can be considered "framing" done loosely. when, why and where people create a box (in which to think, in the manner you are suggesting above).

To the parent's point, it's often times boring to disregard an interesting framing (out of hand) because of a technical flaw. Similarly, there is endless boredom to be had reading articles with reasoned logic in flawed or boring frames (ie, those which exclude or impugn the interesting bits).

We see this alot in the media, now, because its part of the PR spin game. The formula is to put bounds around the problem that suit your desired result. Journalists also often due this due to ignorance of a technical subject matter. We also see this as part of the fairness doctrine -- every story needs 'two sides' so a (often false) dichotomey is cookie cutter textbook inserted into every 'analysis'. ect.

Re: The island where people forget to die

#152
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there's one thing I wish I could do to improve HN, it would be to detect this sort of middlebrow dismissal algorithmically. Unsophisticated people read an article like this and think: Gosh, I better eat honey for breakfast! People a little more sophisticated think: Hey, this is anecdotal evidence! Yeah, we know that. But is that the most interesting thing one can say about this article? Is it not at least a source…

It's been a while since I've coined a new term on HN, but I think now is as appropriate a time as ever: cargo cult skepticism. edit: ~10 previous results on Google. :-/

Skepticism is also the wrong name for this ideology. Genuine skeptics would direct their doubt against the leading dogma of the age, whereas this ideology seeks to comfortably reinforce it. Historically, its true name – as I believe you pointed out here once – is positivism.

Re: The island where people forget to die

#153
post #135
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain what you mean by "statistical blip"? It seems odd to say that, I mean, wouldn't it imply that there's interference from improper measuring, or interference from variables gone unnoticed, or interference from variables that are irrelevant? I'm probably reading it wrong, but it seems such a bizarre thing to say.

What I mean is, Poisson distributions don't look like normal distributions if lambda is low - there's a long tail. There's about 500,000 centenarians (thanks bitwize for the spelling) in the world. That's about 0.01%. In a town of 10,000, that's an average (lambda) of 1. About 36% of such towns will have no centenarians, 36% will have one, 18% will have 2, 6% will have 3, 1.5% will have 4, and there's a long tail wit…

Thank you for that explanation. I believed you had said that studying what was different for centenarians - or similar biological anomalies - in a blue zone was quite possibly useless, but it seems that wasn't the case.

Re: The island where people forget to die

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been a while since I've coined a new term on HN, but I think now is as appropriate a time as ever: cargo cult skepticism. edit: ~10 previous results on Google. :-/

Skepticism is also the wrong name for this ideology. Genuine skeptics would direct their doubt against the leading dogma of the age, whereas this ideology seeks to comfortably reinforce it. Historically, its true name – as I believe you pointed out here once – is positivism.

No, it's a fine name:

cargo cult skepticism is to skepticism like cargo cult science is to science. (Which is to say: it isn't)

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