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The Future of AI Software Development

martinfowler.com

61–70 of 156 posts

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#61
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure you read the article, it's not referring to financials, but tech debt.

I like Fowler and reviewed it well. Are you assuming tech debt has no financial cost?

Oh sure but it just usually doesn't show up on a financial statement so just seemed a bit strange to be commenting on the financials is all, maybe I misunderstood your context.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a near-frontier model Is Kimi K2 near-frontier though? At least when run in an agent harness, and for general coding questions, it seems pretty far from it. I know what the benchmarks say, they always say it's great and close to frontier models, but is this other's impression in practice? Maybe my prompting style works best with GPT-type models, but I'm just not seeing that for the type of engineering work I do, wh…

I’ve been running K2.5 (through the API) as my daily driver for coding through Kimi Code CLI and it’s been pretty much flawless. It’s also notably cheaper and I like the option that if my vibe coded side projects became more than side projects I could run everything in house. I’ve been pretty active in the open model space and 2 years ago you would have had to pay 20k to run models that were nowhere near as powerful.…

I agree with this statement. Kimi K2.5 is at least as good as the best closed source models today for my purposes. I've switched from Claude Code w/ Opus 4.5 to OpenCode w/ Kimi K2.5 provided by Fireworks AI. I never run into time-based limits, whereas before I was running into daily/hourly/weekly/monthly limits all the time. And I'm paying a fraction of what Anthropic was charging (from well over $100 per month to less than $50 per month).

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a near-frontier model Is Kimi K2 near-frontier though? At least when run in an agent harness, and for general coding questions, it seems pretty far from it. I know what the benchmarks say, they always say it's great and close to frontier models, but is this other's impression in practice? Maybe my prompting style works best with GPT-type models, but I'm just not seeing that for the type of engineering work I do, wh…

I’ve been running K2.5 (through the API) as my daily driver for coding through Kimi Code CLI and it’s been pretty much flawless. It’s also notably cheaper and I like the option that if my vibe coded side projects became more than side projects I could run everything in house. I’ve been pretty active in the open model space and 2 years ago you would have had to pay 20k to run models that were nowhere near as powerful.…

> it’s been pretty much flawless

So above and beyond frontier models? Because they certainly aren't "flawless" yet, or we have very different understanding of that word.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#64
Get over your FOMO:

   I walked into that room expecting to learn from people who were 
   further ahead. People who’d cracked the code on how to adopt AI at scale, 
   how to restructure teams around it, how to make it work. Some of the 
   sharpest minds in the software industry were sitting around those tables.

   And nobody has it all figured out.
People who say they have are trying to mess with your head.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#65
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've faced the same but my conclusion is the opposite. In the past 6 months, all my code has been written by claude code and gemini cli. I have written code backend, frontend, infrastructure and iOS. Considering my career trajectory all of this was impossible a couple of years ago. But the technical debt has been enormous. And I'll be honest, my understanding of these technologies hasn't been 'expert' level. I'm 100%…

A lot of people aren’t realizing that it’s not about replacing software engineers, it’s about replacing software . We’ve been trying to build well engineered, robust, scalable systems because software had to be written to serve other users. But LLMs change that. I have a bunch of vibe coded command lines tools that exactly solve my problems, but very likely would make terrible software. The thing is, this program onl…

I absolutely believe in that value proposition - but I've heard a lot about how beneficial it will be for large organizationally backed software products. If it isn't valuable to that later scenario (which I have uncertainty about) then there is no way companies like OpenAI could ever justify their valuations.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#66
post #8
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but prompt injection springs eternal. Yes, but some are mitigated when discoverd, and some more critical areas need to be isolated from the LLM so taking their time to provision LLM into their lifecycle is important, and they're happy to spend the time doing it right, rather than just throwing the latest edge tech into their system.

How exactly can you "mitigate" prompt injections? Given that the language space is for all intents and purposes infinite, and given that you can even circumvent these by putting your injections in hex or base64 or whatever? Like I just don't see how one can truly mitigate these when there are infinite ways of writing something in natural language, and that's before we consider the non-natural languages one can use to…

If the model is properly aligned then it shouldn't matter if there is an infinite ways for an attacker to ask the model to break alignment.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#67

[flagged]

1. Singham is not a fugitive from American justice just yet - although refusing to cooperate with Congress may lead him to be.

2. Is it a problem if a rich guy funds activities in America that suspiciously align with a foreign power? That has interesting implications for many pro Israel billionaires and organizations.

3. Only a paranoid MAGA troll would characterize the left wing groups he funds as domestic terrorists. Code Pink? Pro Palestinian protest groups? Come on.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#68
post #30
post #11

> Will LLMs be cheaper than humans once the subsidies for tokens go away? At this point we have little visibility to what the true cost of tokens is now, let alone what it will be in a few years time. It could be so cheap that we don’t care how many tokens we send to LLMs, or it could be high enough that we have to be very careful. We do have some idea. Kimi K2 is a relatively high performing open source model. Peopl…

20k for such a setup for a hobbyist? You can leave the somewhat away and go into sub 1% region globally. A kw of power is still 2k/year at least for me, not that I expect it will run continuously but still not negligible if you can do with 100-200 a year on cheap subscriptions.

There are plenty of normal people with hobbies that cost much more. Off the top of my head, recreational vehicles like racecars and motorcycles, but im sure there are others.

You might be correct when you say the global 1%, but that's still 83 million people.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#69
So here are a few things i have been thinking of: --- It's not 2 pizza teams, it's 2 people teams. You no longer need 4 people on a team just working on features off of a queue, you just need 2 people making technical decisions and managing agents. --- Code used to be expensive to create. It was only economical to write code if it was doing high value work or work that would be repeated many times over a long period of time.

Now producing code is _cheap_. You can write and run code in an automated way _on demand_. But if you do that, you have essentially traded upfront cost for run time cost. It's really only worth it if the work is A) high value and B) intermittent.

There is probably a formula you can write to figure out where this trade off makes sense and when it doesn't.

I'm working on a system where we can just chuck out autonomous agents onto our platform with a plain text description, and one thing I have been thinking about is tracking those token costs and figuring out how to turn agentic workflows into just normal code.

I've been thinking about running an agent that watches the other agents for cost and reads their logs ono a schedule to see if any of what the agents are doing can be codified and turned into a normal workflow, and possibly even _writing that workflow itself_.

It would be analogous to the JVM optimizing hot-path functions... ---

What I do know is that what we are doing for a living will be near unrecognizable in a year or two.

Re: The Future of AI Software Development

#70
> Will this lead to a greater recognition of the role of Expert Generalists? I've always felt that LLMs can make you average in a new area/topic/domain really quickly. But you still need expertise to make the most out of the LLM.

Personally, I'm more interested in whether software development has become more or less pay to win with LLMs?

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